ATL: LEE - Models

[Spacecoast]

That ECMWF/EPS suite this cycle is about the strongest I can remember for anything in the Atlantic, particularly an invest. This definitely has the potential to be quite impressive, hopefully the troughing is strong enough to keep it away from land

Part of the reason why EPS is so strong is that it got upgraded this June. I doubt the old EPS would be this crazy

Agreed.
Empirically, it does seem like the upgrade has improved (it's reputation) in two areas:

Genesis- so far this year, the Euro has done very well forecasting genesis. Outperforming the GFS, without generating false positives.
Intensity- Noticeably higher intensities, than last year's model. Probably still better to use Hurricane models for near term intensity.

The GFS, on the other hand seems to still have genesis issues, (perhaps some degradation) with false negatives, and false positives.

Just my observation / recollection, as I have not been tracking verification / performance data.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1698787263730323530



I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Bruce Lee becomes a powerful sub-900 mb hurricane

[aspen]

Man the GFS sure hates New England/Atlantic Canada. 18z goes into MA/ME.

[Woofde]

Man the GFS sure hates New England/Atlantic Canada. 18z goes into MA/ME.

If that run actually came to fruition, it would probably put a couple feet of water in my house. We've seen a lot of model runs like that over the years, especially at this range. Climatology says it rarely happens, though always possible. Most people here forget that we are indeed in the risk area for Hurricanes.

[HurricaneBelle]

Thought this was interesting in the third image he posted. Of the 6 storms that formed since 2000 where 95L is forecast to form that eventually became major hurricanes 4 of them struck the US and 2 didn't

Six is a small sample size of anything

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS: Ensemble mean crosses just NE of 20N,60W in 5 days.

[SconnieCane]

Buzzsaw blade in 90 hours if the 18Z HWRF verifies.

[aspen]

HAFS-A and B finish off with Cat 5 Hurricane Lee: 145 kt/927 mbar for A and 140 kt/920 mbar for B.

[AubreyStorm]

HAFS-A and B finish off with Cat 5 Hurricane Lee: 145 kt/927 mbar for A and 140 kt/920 mbar for B.

Where I see that run?

[TomballEd]

Euro ensembles are now run at the same resolution as the op, 9 km, IIRC. The 'control' EPS will be retired soon. per the ECMWF

[Hurricane2022]

HAFS-A and B finish off with Cat 5 Hurricane Lee: 145 kt/927 mbar for A and 140 kt/920 mbar for B.

Where I see that run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF a bit S of 12z…

[verruckt]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5NjM6RGj/hwrf-ref-95-L-fh3-126.gif [/url]

18z HWRF a bit S of 12z…

The crazy part of that, with a little rough math would mean:
-An eye ~60 miles in diameter
-Overall storm ~330 miles in diameter.

[zzzh]

HAFS-A

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Water temps are 30C just north of the Lesser Antilles. Combined that with a favorable upper-level environment and it would not surprise me if 95L ends up being similar to Irma in terms of intensity. Euro is showing exactly that. Fortunately it's looking likely it'll be a miss of the islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/fsJ5Tr7.png
HAFS-A

A wannabe Patricia? In the open MDR? Woof

[Ptarmigan]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1698787263730323530?t=25FdgKNn0pe26GWmTT8jmQ&s=19
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Bruce Lee becomes a powerful sub-900 mb hurricane

If it panned out, Lee would be one of the strongest hurricanes in the past several years.

[blp]

I don't think we will get sub 900 if it's over open waters heading OTS. You won't have almost any recon Only if Dvorak estimates come back at an 8 which is highly unlikely in that part of the Atlantic. Maybe the Western Caribbean which has much higher TCHP.

[Teban54]

I don't think we will get sub 900 if it's over open waters heading OTS. You won't have almost any recon Only if Dvorak estimates come back at an 8 which is highly unlikely in that part of the Atlantic. Maybe the Western Caribbean which has much higher TCHP.

If it turns out to be a New England threat - which GFS is showing and which is certainly still on the table - then I expect there to be recon.

Franklin also had recon at its peak even though it was clearly heading OTS.

[Meteorcane]

I don't think we will get sub 900 if it's over open waters heading OTS. You won't have almost any recon Only if Dvorak estimates come back at an 8 which is highly unlikely in that part of the Atlantic. Maybe the Western Caribbean which has much higher TCHP.

If it turns out to be a New England threat - which GFS is showing and which is certainly still on the table - then I expect there to be recon.

Franklin also had recon at its peak even though it was clearly heading OTS.

Yeah with a possible Bermuda threat there will be some recon too. Should also be some of the environmental sampling missions later in the period too.