ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Levi posted an update

https://youtu.be/FHjE4YC8H7Y?si=vk_O8QcAOJMQp8pz

[BobHarlem]

wrong thread

[AxaltaRacing24]

With these waters being the hottest ever in June, 2 MDR threats back-to-back, and nearly every intensity model showing a cat 2 or stronger, I do not think the NHC is being too aggressive. In their own wording, they hint at the fact that this forecast if anything, is slightly conservative.

[GCANE]

Good view of the warm-core on IR
https://x.com/WeatherManRed1/status/1806826562982932926

[ChrisH-UK]

TD 2 at 23:00 UTC, looks like its well on it way.

Source - https://col.st/Afhh9

[Zonacane]

Need a microwave pass

[Xyls]

Honestly... this storm is giving me Maria vibes.

[Category5Kaiju]

Assuming some of these model predictions pan out, I think 2024 will be the first season in a while where 2013 comparisons fail to even see the light of day.

[Sciencerocks]

https://imgur.com/a/O4YuyE1

https://i.imgur.com/s4Zua4k.mp4

[wxman57]

Need a microwave pass

Here's a microwave loop. Center is east of that convection due to moderate easterly wind shear. Sheared storms like this often track left of guidance and are weaker.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_02L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

[GCANE]

Main convection has rained out.
Now a new tower maybe forming.
Typical pulsing behavior.

[GCANE]

Main convection has rained out.
Now a new tower maybe forming.
Typical pulsing behavior.

If a second tower forms on the opposite side of the LLC, and they start a CCW path, then it will be an indication of eyewall building.

[wxman57]

Levi posted an update

https://youtu.be/FHjE4YC8H7Y?si=vk_O8QcAOJMQp8pz

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

[GCANE]

Levi posted an update

https://youtu.be/FHjE4YC8H7Y?si=vk_O8QcAOJMQp8pz

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

Do you know where he is now?

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1806820537643180520

[GCANE]

Main convection has rained out.
Now a new tower maybe forming.
Typical pulsing behavior.

If a second tower forms on the opposite side of the LLC, and they start a CCW path, then it will be an indication of eyewall building.

I was going to put out my cigar and call it a night.
However, a second tower is forming about where I suspected it would be.
I think I'll keep puffing; especially since this is a high-end Padron.

[wxman57]

Levi posted an update

https://youtu.be/FHjE4YC8H7Y?si=vk_O8QcAOJMQp8pz

Watching it now. I met Levi at the AMS tropical conference in Tucson, AZ back in 2010. He was in college then. Smart meteorologist.

Do you know where he is now?

He's at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, HI.

[Zonacane]

Main convection has rained out.
Now a new tower maybe forming.
Typical pulsing behavior.

If a second tower forms on the opposite side of the LLC, and they start a CCW path, then it will be an indication of eyewall building.

I was going to put out my cigar and call it a night.
However, a second tower is forming about where I suspected it would be.
I think I'll keep puffing; especially since this is a high-end Padron.

Dual rotating towers, wonderful. Say hi to Beryl

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Most of the higher end models have 02L developing an inner core tonight; I believe that would be highly dependent on the shear abating just enough to allow for that.

[GCANE]

Maybe seeing the development of a small feeder band from high TPW air deep inside the ITCZ itself

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5