ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

It looks like Kirk might actually be trying to become a cat 5. Its satellite presentation is starting to approach perfection with a thick cold CDO which is somehow cooling rapidly over the last hour (average CDO temperature has decreased by 4 degrees in only 1 hour). Furthermore, the eye has continued to warm to +17.2C. CI# is still 'only' at 6.4 which translates to an intensity of 934mb/125kt. However, raw T# has shot up to 6.8, which would indicate a 135kt hurricane. If there isn't an EWRC I can realistically see Kirk reaching T# of 7.0 which would usually indicate a cat 5. Let's see what happens.

https://i.imgur.com/3PdeMh0.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/6109I2q.png

I really hope the NHC puts out a special update sometime tonight, or else we’re gonna have an Atlantic Gilma lol.

It’s painfully obvious this is an upper-end 4, between the clear +17C eye, stadium effect, and thick complete W ring (even trying to go for a CMG ring as well).

[PDKlikatino]

Looks almost identical to Lee!

https://i.imgur.com/6109I2q.png

[WaveBreaking]

It would be really nice to have recon for this storm

EDIT: Eye temp now 18.5°C

[Travorum]

It would be really nice to have recon for this storm

EDIT: Eye temp now 18.5°C



https://i.imgur.com/B7WkAHF.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/evZsEMO.jpeg

Yup. Lorenzo had research flights going into it, and while they weren't present at it's peak and aren't officially given as a reason for the C5 upgrade, the recon flights did provide data to confirm that earlier Dvorak classifications were correct. I imagine that provided TAFB and SAB a little more confidence in issuing the T7.0/7.0 Dvorak classification for Lorenzo that we're not going to get here, especially with how cagey NHC has gotten with ADT these days.

[aspen]

It would be really nice to have recon for this storm

EDIT: Eye temp now 18.5°C



https://i.imgur.com/B7WkAHF.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/evZsEMO.jpeg

Bruh. That’s 130-140 kt.

Cmon, put out a special update.

[WaveBreaking]

Did some digging and found a Dvorak IR image of Lorenzo (a vaguely similar case imo) right around the time it was upgraded to a 5. Even though Lorenzo has a more complete CMG ring, Kirk has a much warmer eye and will have more time to deepen. My guess is that Kirk peaks at 135kt/140kt.

Lorenzo



Kirk

[kevin]

I'm afraid that we're gonna be stuck with another 135 kt storm that might've been 140 kt. Also I don't know why the automatic ADT, even the corrected version, puts the center of Kirk in the northern half of the CDO instead of the center. Even with this erroneous center placement it still has a raw T# of 6.5, but I hope NHC uses better center fixes for their ADT analyses.

[Travorum]

I'm afraid that we're gonna be stuck with another 135 kt storm that might've been 140 kt. Also I don't know why the automatic ADT, even the corrected version, puts the center of Kirk in the northern half of the CDO instead of the center. Even with this erroneous center placement it still has a raw T# of 6.5, but I hope NHC uses better center fixes for their ADT analyses.

https://i.imgur.com/1jtoKZJ.gif

seriously, ADT pegged the eye temp at +11.4C when there are pixels at almost +19C.

[kevin]

It would be kinda crazy is 2024 manages to pump out a cat 5 in July and October, but not in August and September. Whatever happens, it's a weird season for sure.

[WaveBreaking]

I'm afraid that we're gonna be stuck with another 135 kt storm that might've been 140 kt. Also I don't know why the automatic ADT, even the corrected version, puts the center of Kirk in the northern half of the CDO instead of the center. Even with this erroneous center placement it still has a raw T# of 6.5, but I hope NHC uses better center fixes for their ADT analyses.

https://i.imgur.com/1jtoKZJ.gif

On the bright side, Kirk has about 24 more hours until it’s supposed to peak, so maybe that’ll give it enough time to convince the NHC to pull the trigger.


Also that outer band that was trying to initiate an EWRC failed to wrap around in the latest microwave image, so nothing should get in Kirk’s way.

[aspen]

I'm afraid that we're gonna be stuck with another 135 kt storm that might've been 140 kt. Also I don't know why the automatic ADT, even the corrected version, puts the center of Kirk in the northern half of the CDO instead of the center. Even with this erroneous center placement it still has a raw T# of 6.5, but I hope NHC uses better center fixes for their ADT analyses.

https://i.imgur.com/1jtoKZJ.gif

Welcome back Sam ‘21.

Seriously how did ADT get so bad in the last year? Even in storms with huge obvious eyes like this one, it has such difficulty nailing the center. And some of the objective fixes have been bad too; they were stuck at T5.5 for 18z and dragged the blend down.

[Travorum]

ADT has raw and adj T# at 7.1, and a 92 degree difference between the eye and coldest tops:

2024OCT03 221020 6.5 931.7 127.0 6.5 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.89 -73.09 EYE 23 IR 68.6 21.03 46.78 ARCHER GOES16 40.4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2024 Time : 221020 UTC
Lat : 21:01:48 N Lon : 46:46:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 931.7mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +18.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Teban54]

Seeing some signs of the W ring being eroded in recent frames, even though the eye is warmer and clearer than before.

[kevin]

For reference here is the automatic Dvorak ADT estimate all cat 5 hurricanes in the last 10 years.

Beryl (2024) = CI 6.9 / raw T# 7.0 / ADT intensity 928mb, 137kt
Lee (2023) = CI 6.8 / raw T# 7.0 / ADT intensity 930mb, 135kt
Ian (2022) = CI 6.9 / raw T# 7.2 / ADT intensity 922mb, 137 kt
Lorenzo (2019) = CI 7.1 / raw T# 7.3 / ADT intensity 914mb, 143 kt
Dorian (2019) = CI 6.4 / raw T# 6.5 / ADT intensity 936mb, 125 kt
Michael (2018) = CI 7.2 / raw T# 7.4 / ADT intensity 909mb , 146 kt
Maria (2017) = CI 7.1 / raw T# 7.3 / ADT intensity 922mb, 143 kt
Irma (2017) = CI 7.3 / raw T# 7.4 / ADT intensity 915mb, 149 kt
Matthew (2016) = CI 7.0 / raw T# 7.4 / ADT intensity 924mb, 140 kt

And some hurricanes that peaked at 135 kt.

Sam (2021) = CI 6.6 / raw T# 6.7 / ADT intensity 939mb, 130 kt
Iota (2020) = CI 7.0 / raw T# 7.5 / ADT intensity 922mb, 140 kt
Jose (2017) = CI 6.3 / raw T# 6.4 / ADT intensity 942mb, 122 kt
Joaquin (2015) = CI 6.5 / raw T# 6.7 / ADT intensity 928mb, 127 kt

And Eta just because it's my profile picture
Eta (2020) = CI 7.3 / raw T# 8.4 / ADT intensity 917 mb, 149 kt

[kevin]

Finally a decent center fix. Eye temperature up to +18.9C and the CDO has cooled another 2 degrees over the last hour to a very impressive average of -73 degrees Celsius. CI# 6.5, but now with a more reasonable raw T# of 7.1. If the 7.1 manages to also translate to CI we're talking about a 143 kt hurricane.

[WaveBreaking]

That outer band is trying to choke off the eye again (image is ~4 hours old), but Kirk’s eye is now the warmest it’s ever been at 19.8°C.

[Hurricane2022]

[Travorum]

Second ADT fix ≥ 7.0 raw T#, dragging the CI# kicking and screaming up to 6.6. Very interested in seeing what the subjective estimates are at 00z.

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 03 OCT 2024 Time : 224020 UTC Lat : 21:04:47 N Lon : 46:50:24 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.6 / 929.2mb/129.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.6 7.0 7.0 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km Center Temp : +18.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

[zzzh]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/WX2D2nj.png

Yeah…if the NHC doesn’t do a special update, they will 100% miss peak intensity by 11pm.