TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

Also, all of those models initialized to the SW of the center which is near the coast of Long Island.

[cjrciadt]

Interesting graphic

Too interesting for our location.

If this were pre-2004 it would curve of at last second(like so many), though this year "I'm going to Miami" seems likely.

[spinfan4eva]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

Why are they saying further west when it is 7/10s of a degree east of the 8pm position.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

[gkrangers]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

Why are they saying further west when it is 7/10s of a degree east of the 8pm position.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

That is the NHC position. The stuff posted above was from the Air Force.

They made their own center fix. So the Air Force is comparing it to their old fix, not the NHC one.

[dwg71]

well well well, so we have a center relocation. why am I not surprised??

It located slightly West of last fix, not South, 23.4N 75.1W isnt near Cuba..

Why are they saying further west when it is 7/10s of a degree east of the 8pm position.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

Agreed, position was shifted east, not west.

[Sanibel]

What bugs me is there is a persistent vortex very visible on shortwave in the Cuban portion...

[Rainband]

I agree.

[Blown Away]

The circulation center looks like it is very close to the NW corner of Long Island (Bahamas). All the models initialize the the center W and S of Long Island. Looks like the current location is N and E of the models? Just an observation.

[dwg71]

The circulation center looks like it is very close to the NW corner of Long Island (Bahamas). All the models initialize the the center W and S of Long Island. Looks like the current location is N and E of the models? Just an observation.

Agreed

[Eyes2theSkies]

yuppers big changes for tommorrow

[gatorcane]

yuppers big changes for tommorrow

what do you mean?

[Air Force Met]

What bugs me is there is a persistent vortex very visible on shortwave in the Cuban portion...

It's a mid-level vortex. The sfc system is further north. Given the broad LLC, it's possible the LLC could drift a little south to meet the mid level center...or the two could meet in the middle. Once this happens...it's off to the races.

[GTStorm]

The NHC center has remained the center. The one at 75W IS the dominant center, and remains so.

There wasn't much "relocation".

5:00 advisory - 23.2 N, 75.5 W
7:30 recon - 23.4 N, 75.1 W

Will the 00Z models be initialized at the recon position, which is further east than the 5:00 advisory initial position? This shouldn't change the general forecast reasoning, should it (i.e. NW for 48 hrs then WNW)? My guess is that you'd have a landfall a bit further up the Florida coast, but not much.

[Eyes2theSkies]

yuppers big changes for tommorrow

what do you mean?

I think the LLC on the north side of Long Island will draw the mid level spin into it. I think the models will trend slightly more north in time. JMHO

[Wnghs2007]

Keep in mind that the GFDL posted there was initialized at 18Z. Its initialized position is similar to that of the other 18Z models.

if you look at the placement and time on the chart it was initalized at 2325 z or 1 hour before the other GFS models did. That is the newest gfdl, the old gfdl was the 1735 z and was further south and west.

Like I said a flip flop a septillion times is coming.

[shaggy]

if the models start trending north then maybe some thought might have to be put into the GFS solution of a SE runner HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely though if i were in SE florida i would be bringin in the yard furniture!!!!

[gkrangers]

Keep in mind that the GFDL posted there was initialized at 18Z. Its initialized position is similar to that of the other 18Z models.

if you look at the placement and time on the chart it was initalized at 2325 z or 1 hour before the other GFS models did. That is the newest gfdl, the old gfdl was the 1735 z and was further south and west.

Like I said a flip flop a septillion times is coming.

Ok...the GFDL is plotted several hours AFTER the model run time.

So...the 18z GFDL gets plotted around 2300z.

The 00z GFDL gets plotted around 0500z.

Etc...get it?

[Wnghs2007]

Keep in mind that the GFDL posted there was initialized at 18Z. Its initialized position is similar to that of the other 18Z models.

if you look at the placement and time on the chart it was initalized at 2325 z or 1 hour before the other GFS models did. That is the newest gfdl, the old gfdl was the 1735 z and was further south and west.

Like I said a flip flop a septillion times is coming.

Ok...the GFDL is plotted several hours AFTER the model run time.

So...the 18z GFDL gets plotted around 2300z.

The 00z GFDL gets plotted around 0500z.

Etc...get it?

OK no need for the LARGE text. THANKS

[Sanibel]

On further review the feature just west of Long Island is tracking like a surface center and even has a small section of it visible on the south side of the LLC. Its motion and look is exactly like an established LLC tracking WNW. What were they talking about? There was no relocation.


To me it looks to be curving ever so slightly...

[jabber]

if the models start trending north then maybe some thought might have to be put into the GFS solution of a SE runner HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely though if i were in SE florida i would be bringin in the yard furniture!!!!

Got pleanty of time. Went to Publix tonight to pick up a few supplies, made a comment about the storm to a couple of folks.... guess what the answer was 'what storm'