Tropical Storm Ophelia

[jabber]

06/2345 UTC 27.8N 78.3W T2.5/2.5 16 -- Atlantic Ocean


2.5 means tropical storm force winds 35kts so will they upgrade at 11 PM?

Chart of the T numbers.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Think they will wait till the AM. Lets see if convection stays overnight.

[Josephine96]

Looks like based on those Numbers that we may have Ophelia.. I'm intrigued my coast is under a TS warning lol.. Better not become a cane warning lol

[SouthFloridawx]

[Thunder44]

TPNT KGWC 070019
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
B. 06/2331Z (82)
C. 28.0N/0
D. 78.7W/2
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0/09HRS -06/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK CNSTRNTS BKN FOR DVLPMT OF ONE T-NBR
OVR PAST 6HRS. CNVCTN NOW WRAPS .50 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS A 2.0.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI

Air Force numbers give a 2.5/2.5

[truballer#1]

[nequad]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (AL162005) ON 20050907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050907 0000 050907 1200 050908 0000 050908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 78.4W 28.1N 79.2W 28.7N 79.7W 29.1N 80.0W
BAMM 27.2N 78.4W 27.8N 78.9W 28.2N 79.3W 28.5N 79.6W
A98E 27.2N 78.4W 27.7N 78.5W 28.4N 78.8W 29.0N 78.6W
LBAR 27.2N 78.4W 27.9N 79.0W 28.7N 79.4W 29.5N 79.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050909 0000 050910 0000 050911 0000 050912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 80.2W 30.6N 79.8W 32.1N 77.1W 33.3N 72.2W
BAMM 28.7N 79.7W 29.4N 80.4W 29.8N 81.0W 29.1N 81.8W
A98E 29.5N 78.5W 30.6N 77.3W 32.7N 74.1W 33.3N 69.2W
LBAR 30.3N 78.9W 32.2N 76.8W 35.4N 70.6W 37.9N 55.4W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 62KTS 61KTS
DSHP 51KTS 58KTS 49KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 26.5N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 26.1N LONM24 = 78.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thunder44]

0z models just came out still have it as a 25kt TD.

[nequad]

Interesting model run.

[rockyman]

New GFDL still consistent with track into Gulf of Mexico (pink line):

[Brent]

It looks stronger than 25 kt... maybe not a TS yet, but it's stronger than 25 kt.

Of course, let's all remember that Nate was a 25 kt TD at 5pm.. and was a storm at 11pm.

[Brent]

New GFDL still consistent with track into Gulf of Mexico (pink line):

OK... what is the UKMET smoking?

[SouthFloridawx]

New GFDL still consistent with track into Gulf of Mexico (pink line):

OK... what is the UKMET smoking?

Smoking some gulfstream i think. He is still hungover from Katrina

[Amanzi]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

[cycloneye]

0z models just came out still have it as a 25kt TD.

Let's see if they come out again in the comming hour as a TS as it has occured many times in the past.

[Rainband]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

[Thunder44]

0z models just came out still have it as a 25kt TD.

Let's see if they come out again in the comming hour as a TS as it has occured many times in the past.

I think they had the sat estimates already before they models come out. I think they rely more on surface obs around TD 16 than the sat estimates.

[truballer#1]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

yea, but weak. I dont thnk its going to be to weak when gom

[Rainband]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

yea, but weak. I dont thnk its going to be to weak when gom

There is no local in your profile?? where you located at??

[Amanzi]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

I am wondering what the GFDL is picking up to cause that kind of sw-w motion.

[truballer#1]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

I am wondering what the GFDL is picking up to cause that kind of sw-w motion.

gfdl had the same idea with katrina and was right!!!!