Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[Stratusxpeye]

I think the track will be a little further south around the ocala area on the coast. A little further south than the gfdl shows. However that intesity is pretty dramatic. Thats a pretty decent tight system it shows. Could happen but I wouldn't say this would make it past 75mph cat 1 if that. Definently could use this little wind and rain in my area here just not more than Strong TS Winds. Interesting how things change in just 24 hours

[CHRISTY]

Florida residents.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -headlines

boca that link isnt workin for me post it again..thanks

[Stratosphere747]

The 12z Euro has a more impressive looking system near Alaska than this Caribbean blob...

[boca]

x-y-no eat the hat eat the hat.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A major hurricane is not impossible in June. In 1957, Hurricane Audrey made landfall on the TX/LA border as a category 4 hurricane!

[gatorcane]

A major hurricane is not impossible in June. In 1957, Hurricane Audrey made landfall on the TX/LA border as a category 4 hurricane!

Yes a major hurricane is possible in June - if the conditions are right - low shear and high SSTs

[x-y-no]

If that GFDL run comes even close to verifying, I'll eat my hat live on the internet.

I think we may get a sheared TS out of this, but I highly doubt that we could get a Cat 2 hurricane, not in the Gulf that far north for sure.

What if it trends south into SW Florida like a Wilma track...what do you think then?

Still think we're most likely looking at a TS (if anything). Not as badly sheared if it tracks this far south. If it goes real slow, maybe it has a chance to intensify a bit more.

I'm far from convinced it'll come this far southeast, though. It's possible, but I think central or even northern Florida are more likely.

I'm not going to make any serious effort at predicting this until I've seen tonights 0z runs, though.

[Brent]

We decided to lift the ten page locking for now.

We just decided to lock at 25 pages,sounds good?

That's a lot better than 10 pages.

[gatorcane]

If that GFDL run comes even close to verifying, I'll eat my hat live on the internet.

I think we may get a sheared TS out of this, but I highly doubt that we could get a Cat 2 hurricane, not in the Gulf that far north for sure.

What if it trends south into SW Florida like a Wilma track...what do you think then?

Still think we're most likely looking at a TS. Not as badly sheared if it tracks this far south. If it goes real slow, maybe it has a chance to intensify a bit more.

I'm far from convinced it'll come this far southeast, though. It's possible, but I think central or even northern Florida are more likely.

I'm not going to make any serious effort at predicting this until I've seen tonights 0z runs, though.

thanks for you input. When you look back at history though, how many times have we seen systems brew where this one is brewing and cross south florida? There have been so many.

[curtadams]

If that GFDL run comes even close to verifying, I'll eat my hat live on the internet.

I think we may get a sheared TS out of this, but I highly doubt that we could get a Cat 2 hurricane, not in the Gulf that far north for sure.

How about a Cat 3 off Cape Cod in June? They must have tweaked the GFDL because it always used to be bullish early and bearish later (due to spreading out the windfield). Still bullish early but yowza, not bearish later! It looks like a forecast from a "wonderful forecaster".

[rockyman]

Here's a hint for posts...If your post has the words "I think," your post should also have the word "because"...If everyone will try this, this board will be a lot more informative.

Example...I think the GFDL is onto something, because the shear in the Gulf is already decreasing rapidly.

Instead of...I think the GDFL is on crack! There aint no way this is gonna pan out!!

[gatorcane]

If that GFDL run comes even close to verifying, I'll eat my hat live on the internet.

I think we may get a sheared TS out of this, but I highly doubt that we could get a Cat 2 hurricane, not in the Gulf that far north for sure.

How about a Cat 3 off Cape Cod in June? They must have tweaked the GFDL because it always used to be bullish early and bearish later (due to spreading out the windfield). Still bullish early but yowza, not bearish later! It looks like a forecast from a "wonderful forecaster".

The GFDL sees very little shear and warm SSTs - so it is bullish on it, however, I sure hope the shear increases as we are hoping - if not we will see hurricane Alberto in my opinion.

[CHRISTY]

Guys this is a great visible loop of 90L....SEE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

[boca]

Christy did it work for ya.

[gatorcane]

Christy did it work for ya.

worked for me but you have to wait a bit for it to start

[Opal storm]

I really doubt we are going to see anything more than a strong t.s/weak hurricane (if that) due to the shear.If this was already a T.D then yes,proabaly a hurricane but it's still just a sheared blob.I think we'll see a 50-60mph T.S at landfall.

[curtadams]

The GFDL sees very little shear and warm SSTs - so it is bullish on it, however, I sure hope the shear increases as we are hoping - if not we will see hurricane Alberto in my opinion.

True, but the GFDL in the past has been prone to "overtighten" systems early. It's particularly bullish on systems developing out of these big convective fields because it collapses all the energy into a relatively small area quite quickly. Sometime it's right, like with Wilma, but not usually.

[gatorcane]

The GFDL sees very little shear and warm SSTs - so it is bullish on it, however, I sure hope the shear increases as we are hoping - if not we will see hurricane Alberto in my opinion.

True, but the GFDL in the past has been prone to "overtighten" systems early. It's particularly bullish on systems developing out of these big convective fields because it collapses all the energy into a relatively small area quite quickly. Sometime it's right, like with Wilma, but not usually.

thanks I hope it is wrong. It still looks disorganized right now - hopefully it runs out of time before it gets its act together.

[max]

The GFDL sees very little shear and warm SSTs - so it is bullish on it, however, I sure hope the shear increases as we are hoping - if not we will see hurricane Alberto in my opinion.

True, but the GFDL in the past has been prone to "overtighten" systems early. It's particularly bullish on systems developing out of these big convective fields because it collapses all the energy into a relatively small area quite quickly. Sometime it's right, like with Wilma, but not usually.

thanks I hope it is wrong. It still looks disorganized right now - hopefully it runs out of time before it gets its act together.

If its not wrong what could happen please?

[boca]

ok good thats a nice shot of 90L Christy.