Convection Near Bahamas

[Evil Jeremy]

but it isnt exactly the NHC who names systems invests, or am i wrong?

[Rainband]

i dont think its moving north any time soon!

If it sits there long enough that scenario may take place.

[HURAKAN]

Storms are only named invests when they have a good chance at developing. This system according to the NHC doesn't have favorable conditions for development. Though in my opinion the conditions are getting better.

That's most of the time, because many of the invests in the WPAC have little or no chance at developing and they are upgraded to invests. In the Atlantic the rule is more strict, usually when an invest is issued the system has a really good shot at developing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Evil Jeremy I think you should explain your thinking on why it won't move north.

[HURAKAN]

Yeah but cant it go up and develop there?

Sea-surface temperatures would allow a system to develop close to the Carolinas.

[Evil Jeremy]

i dont think its moving north any time soon!

If it sits there long enough that scenario may take place.

i think thats going to happen, regardless of if it developes.

[Rainband]

Evil Jeremy I think you should explain your thinking on why it won't move north.

In the short term that easy. It's being blocked from the north. All we need is a front to come down and that will change

[skysummit]

It could still move north a bit though. There's still a weakness just north of it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

[DESTRUCTION5]

It could still move north a bit though. There's still a weakness just north of it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

Its scheduled to fill in pretty good though...

[Thunder44]

Even Channel 7 mets here in New York are even talking about this system developing over the weekend. Interesting they are an Accuwx outlet too.

[rockyman]

Even though there appears to be a weakness to the north of the system, the steering currents in this "gap" are virtually non-existent...I think this system would simply stall, instead of moving NE....also, if you look on the north side of the highs, you see there is no longer a "dip" between the 2 highs, just a nice smooth curve...the trough is gone for now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think we will be seeing an invest sooner rather than later.

[terstorm1012]

Interesting discussion from my local NWS office (local being State College): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AT 00Z TRY TO
DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRING IT THRU THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SERN US FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES PREDICTABLY ARE MORE
WASHED OUT LOOKING...BUT AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY
LOW SFC PRESSURES INTO THE SERN US BY WEEK`S END. HARD TO FIND ITS
PRECURSOR ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IF IT ENDS UP BEING
REAL..IT COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS IT GETS DRAGGED
UP AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

While MT Holly (Philadelphia) doesnt mention this, Sterling VA does: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51

THERE ALSO IS A QUESTION ON WHETHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH A FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN THIS WEEKEND, THIS WILL ADD AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE
MAY NEED TO PARTICULARLY WATCH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES SITUATED THERE AND CELLS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

[The Hurricaner]

Any chance it can affect miami, fl? Or does it look more like north fl to n carolina?

[jdray]

It looks like the models are showing central Florida to SC/GA Border for anything that may come.

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot with satellite. Pressures across the Bahamas and to the northeast have increased by 2-3 millibars since 12Z. Pressures rising do not equal low developing. Just a couple of clusters of storms for now. As Derek mentioned, shear may be increasing tonight/tomorrow morning. I think there's a good chance that there may be a weak surface trof develop by Friday that would drift toward NE FL and GA, possibly bringing them some thunderstorms over the weekend. Chances of any tropical development are low, but not nonexistent (maybe 10-15%). Chances of significant development (strong TS/hurricane) are VERY low.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif

[Thunder44]

It does look the latest satellite images it's trying to get better organized this afternoon, in the upper and mid-levels anyway. Notice it's starting to fan out on the north side. Perhaps an implication that an anticyclone is forming over southern cluster of storms.

[Buck]

I hope it'd landfall in Georgia and move up to Atlanta and dump some rain... we really, really need it here. Particularly so at Lake Lanier as well, as they accidentally dumped 22 billion gallons of water due to a faulty gauge a couple days ago.

[wxman57]

It does look the latest satellite images it's trying to get better organized this afternoon, in the upper and mid-levels anyway. Notice it's starting to fan out on the north side. Perhaps an implication that an anticyclone is forming over southern cluster of storms.

Satellite images can be deceiving. Surface pressures are rising in the area, not falling.

[Hurricanebob]

I didn't see a thread started on this one about 250 miles east of the northern bahamas. It could be an ULL forming in that area, but which direction will it move.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Oops, I didn't see this post. I thought the same thing... models have "it" moving into Florida or Ga...

bob