98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Stormcenter
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#241 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:11 am

drezee wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 251507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT
45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THE
SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND AND IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES
EMERGE OVER THE GULF...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$



Does not surprise me.
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HurricaneHunter914
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#242 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:13 am

Oh well, chances are now basically 0%, just a big rain maker for TX and LA.
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#243 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:13 am

There is a vigorous MLC at 25.8N 96.5W. It is clear on the radar loops. Not sure what will come of it, but it is there...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
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#244 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:14 am

exactly just like I said several pages back, the low is over land so tropical storm formation is not possible at this time.
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#245 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:14 am

gatorcane wrote:The low is over land, until it gets over water there will be no tropical cyclone formation.


here
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#246 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:16 am

It is very unlikey that the low will come back over water since this will continue a northerly movment.
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#247 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:18 am

I think about 1/2 our viewers dropped off the site after that TWO knowing tropical storm formation is not that likely anymore.....
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#248 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:19 am

So what was the deal with "Tropical Formation Alert" and the NNE movement?
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#249 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:19 am

True, but I'm just staying here to see if this does get back over water (very unlikey at this point).
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#250 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:20 am

gatorcane wrote:I think about 1/2 our viewers dropped off the site after that TWO knowing tropical storm formation is not that likely anymore.....


Not good for ratings. :lol:

But seriously, there is still some serious weather out there that I would keep an eye on.
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#251 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:21 am

Stormcenter wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I think about 1/2 our viewers dropped off the site after that TWO knowing tropical storm formation is not that likely anymore.....


Not good for ratings. :lol:

But seriously, there is still some serious weather out there that I would keep an eye on.


I'm fairly confident our inactivity across the Atlantic Basin will not last that much longer...

the board will be slammed
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#252 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:22 am

You sure? Because the only thing I see after 96L is that wave with the low near the Lesser Antilles.
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#253 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:24 am

I'm likin' this '06 season more and more - with the world in turmoil, let's hope it stays this way, or, as Forrest Gump would say, "One less thing"...
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#254 Postby Hohwxny » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:24 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:You sure? Because the only thing I see after 96L is that wave with the low near the Lesser Antilles.


Yes, I would like to know what he knows about the inactivity ending that the rest of us don't.
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#255 Postby stormie_skies » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:25 am

gatorcane wrote:I think about 1/2 our viewers dropped off the site after that TWO knowing tropical storm formation is not that likely anymore.....


Relax. Goodness. This is obviously a weak system.... the "center" is hardly a static thing at this point. Even if the center we are currently watching stays inland, a new, more prominent center could form elsewhere in the Gulf.

Not saying that development of this thing is imminent or anything .... it isn't, at all ..... but you'd be a fool to write off a wave in the Gulf with that much moisture and convection. Its too big and too close to land ...

Either way, looks like a rainy week ahead. (Wonder if I'll get flooded out of work again? I wouldn't mind an extra day off....LOL)
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#256 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:25 am

Stormcenter wrote:So what was the deal with "Tropical Formation Alert" and the NNE movement?


Probably what happened is there were enough checklist items met to issue a TCFA.

(Remember that a TCFA isn't meant for the public, but rather to prepare Dept of Defense assests.)

Since enough criteria were to issue the TCFA, it would look silly to have a TCFA for a system over land. By giving a NNE motion, it still gives the leadtime in the event the system was to emerge into the Gulf.
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#257 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:25 am

Looking at the latest visible frames, something has to get going. Looks like good outflow starting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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#258 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:26 am

Gusting to 50 mph in central GOM

25/15 42002 25.2 -94.4 25.9 25.7 160 29 G 39 170 43 1013.1 1.0 29.3 2.0 7 42002
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#259 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:26 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:You sure? Because the only thing I see after 96L is that wave with the low near the Lesser Antilles.


Yes it still is quiet out there. I have a good feeling about this season not being as bad as earlier thought.
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#260 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:27 am

I agree, Stormcenter...
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