98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[crazycajuncane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Looks like another possible are for LLC formation might be farther away from the TX shore. Any thoughts?

My thought is that it's taking a bit longer than I expected to develop.

Something to the eye on this morning. I still see this becoming a depression. Everyone keeps writing this storm off, but there's a chance for it to reform there in the gulf and it just may happen.

[Thunder44]

On radar and surface obs it looks to me like the surface circulation and low is still inland north of Corpus Christi, and where they are reporting W winds and south of Victoria, where they are reporting East winds and it appears to be moving generally to the north. I don't see any signs of another LLC developing offshore. Lowest pressures still remain close to the coast and inland.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[DJJordan]

I agree with that assesment .... Surface Low is still inland and most likely will remain on land as it continues to move north .... NHC is making sure they cover all of their bases by saying there is a chance for a LLC to reform over the water just in case it does but it does appear highly unlikely at this point.

[Thunder44]

4am obs show winds have switched to the WSW in CC and to the South in Victoria with pressures between 1010-1011mb. So the center maybe moving to the west of the Victoria now. Which also matches more with what radar is currently showing.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KCRP.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KVCT.html

[Thunder44]

138
ABNT20 KNHC 260905
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Looks like what little chance this had of developing is gone.

[wxman57]

No Chris for you! Next!

[HouTXmetro]

3.54 inches of rain near my home over the past 24 hours. The ground is completly saturated with more storms moving in as I type. I'm wondering if I should call in to work.

[HouTXmetro]

On another note, I can't beleive I left my sunroof open last night!!!

[NDG]

No Chris for you! Next!

I can now say, I agree with you
Surface low appears to be moving farther inland between Corpus C. & Victoria, Corpus C. did reported a light SW & W wind a few hours ago as the center of low pressure moved to the north of them.

Surface plot this morning combined radar & sat:

[Air Force Met]

No Chris for you! Next!

Yep.

For the masses, I said this yesterday and I'll say it again this morning:

It is almost (almost) impossible to get a LLC to form within straightline flow that contains a strong gradient.

I don't care how much convection is there...even if there is a mid level center present...if you see nothing but southeast winds blowing at 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots, you will not get a LLC work it's way down to the sfc or a LLC form underneath the convection. Simple (very basic) reason is a soon as the pressure starts to lower in that area...the strong gradient has transported the latent heat out of the area...and all you do is tighten the gradient more.

I will repeat...You want a LLC to form under a MLC or under deep convection...the winds at the sfc better already be fairly light...under 10 knots.

We did not have that yesterday. The low formed on the west side...over land...and the gradient increased.

[wxman57]

Yes, no named system, but a very heavy rainfall event is setting up for the mid to upper TX coast today/tonight. North of this type of disturbance (yesterday) the sqaulls were oriented east-west and moving rapidly northward. But east of the disturbance the squalls are oriented north-south, setting up a training echo event. Rainfall amounts in such a scenario could easily top 10 inches in places. The hard part is to tell just where the training echoes will set up.

[Stormcenter]

Good call to all that said it could not and would not develop.

[Air Force Met]

Yes, no named system, but a very heavy rainfall event is setting up for the mid to upper TX coast today/tonight. North of this type of disturbance (yesterday) the sqaulls were oriented east-west and moving rapidly northward. But east of the disturbance the squalls are oriented north-south, setting up a training echo event. Rainfall amounts in such a scenario could easily top 10 inches in places. The hard part is to tell just where the training echoes will set up.

Yeap...come on ride the train...choo choo.

[Starburst]

Yep thank goodness for the voices of reason

[tailgater]

Thanks AFM for the input on strong straight line winds having Little to no chance. I 'd also like say Next .

[Aquawind]

Great point AFM.. I hope those that get the drink from the train really need it.. Sounds like the some places do and don't need it in TX.. You mets from TX do a great job..

[southerngale]

Great point AFM.. I hope those that get the drink from the train really need it.. Sounds like the some places do and don't need it in TX.. You mets from TX do a great job..

Yep, and we appreciate them. It's nice to have so much input from local mets.

Like I said yesterday, TD or not, the bottom line is a lot of rain and it is POURING - very heavy rain right now. This ought to be an interesting morning because I have to get out in this mess. ugh!

I saw the radar about 2am - 5 hours later and it's dramatically different.

An excerpt from the early morning Lake Charles NWS discussion, which covers extreme Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH TODAY TO WEST OF HOUSTON THEN FURTHER NORTH INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW (30 TO 40 KNOTS AT 85H) BRINGING IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS. PWAT VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 2.2 TO 2.5 INCHES WHICH
IS FROM 135 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORM. ALSO MEAN RH VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE OVER 85 TO 90 PERCENT...MEANING THE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS. GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE
AREA.

ALL THIS POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALLY 5+ INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE.
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 1 1/2 INCHES FOR
1 TO 3 HOURS AND A LITTLE LESS THAN 2 1/2 INCHES FOR 6 HOURS WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

[Aquawind]

Aww common that's a Florida sprinkle..

[southerngale]

Yeah, we had 4 inches in Beaumont in just 45 minutes the other day, and more when you add up the rest of the rain, but who knows how much it will end up being? Hopefully nothing too extreme, but the radar looks ugly and it goes way out into the GOM. Unless the direction changes, we could have some problems.

Good luck to everyone getting this mess and I hope nobody floods.

[tailgater]

Aww common that's a Florida sprinkle..

Sandy soil vs Black Jack mud.