Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[curtadams]

I haven't been tracking but I can estimate the LLC from rotation of low clouds popping out at nightfall on IR2. I'd roughly agree with your position but I would put it a shade closer - the LLC is distinctly under the CDO. However, what's really impressing me is the rapid growth of the LLC, which now encompasses the entire E Caribbean. That suggests to me that it's moving more air than the decent but not fantastic central IR presention indicates.

I just don't see the LLC under the CDO. Looks like the LLC is 60-70 nm. WNW of the CDO ahead of the cirrus shield. All I've been doing is staring at that thing since 4:30 this morning. It's about impossible to see the LLC with IR imagery, though. I can't find it now, as all I can see are mid and high clouds. It does appear to be moving rather quickly, and on a track to the right of the NHC forecast. Not far from the GFDL forecast, actually.

I don't see the LLC itself: I see arcs of clouds revolving around a point toward the NW side - but under - the CDO (at least on IR2). The LLC disappeared under the CDO before the sun went down. The cloud arcs appear to the at the same level as the low-level cloud arcs that were obviously rotating around the LLC when you actually *could* see it on RBG. You can see arcs coming out of the SW side of the CDO - they certainly aren't associated with an exposed center. The center to me appears close to the 8PM forecast point on the 22:45 IR pic and that's certainly under the CDO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek

yeah it was, because it was incorrect. I am not freaking out because of less of a chance for a storm hitting my area, in fact I was not "freaking out" at all. All I asked was why the ideas seemed to change around so much today. This time last night I was hearing, "anticyclone, low shear, strengthening", and now I am hearing, "ULL, high shear, 50% chance of surviving". It is just very confusing.

[Derek Ortt]

recon will be in at 6Z

the shear has always been expected to be strong at this time. Most mets here have been saying it wont let up for at least 36-72 more hours, after which time, the environment should be favorable

[Normandy]

Agreed...but imo the chances of this dissipating are not that great.

Depends on what we define as "dissipating". I mean weakening to a wave (no LLC), but remaining a strong disturbance.

I don't consider a circulation "opening" up dissipation....I consider dissipation doing what Chris did a day after he got decoupled (not fire convection for a day).

[Derek Ortt]

if the system opens up into a wave, it has dissipated. That is the official definition

[Air Force Met]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Preach it brother.

It's getting kinda old.

[Extremeweatherguy]

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I find it hard to believe the NHC would be dead wrong.

[HouTXmetro]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek

yeah it was, because it was incorrect. I am not freaking out because of less of a chance for a storm hitting my area, in fact I was not "freaking out" at all. All I asked was why the ideas seemed to change around so much today. This time last night I was hearing, "anticyclone, low shear, strengthening", and now I am hearing, "ULL, high shear, 50% chance of surviving". It is just very confusing.

EWG I feel your fustration. Just pay attention to the NHC because some on this board change their mind as often as their underwear including me.

[curtadams]

was that little wispy swirl ahead of the deep convection earlier the LLC and if so did it merge with the MLC or is it still running ahead of it, only we can't see it without visual

That swirl ahead of the convection which was visible on visible satellite imagery before 4pm CDT was the same vortex that the recon plane found around noon. It's impossible to see on IR imagery. Could have dissipated, could be dissipating, could be reforming beneath the MLC. We won't be able to tell without recon tonight. Are they flying into it tonight? Anyone know?

It didn't disappear - it was covered up by the CDO as it expanded. Extremely obviously on RGB about 2 frames before dusk, especially if you zoom in: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html (Sorry that's a hotlink; I don't know how to save SSD loops)

[temujin]

EWG I feel your fustration. Just pay attention to the NHC because some on this board change their mind as often as their underwear including me.

If I changed my mind every time the mood changed on this board, I'd be doing laundry every day.

[jwayne]

recon will be in at 6Z

the shear has always been expected to be strong at this time. Most mets here have been saying it wont let up for at least 36-72 more hours, after which time, the environment should be favorable

NHC says 12 hours. I guess we'll see who's the best at forecasting it. Good luck.

[Derek Ortt]

The models forecasts of shear dissipating in 12 hours are wrong

The mets here have not been changing their minds. In fact, Ernesto has been behaving itself, only slight intensification during the past 24 hours due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Conditions will improve in a few days and if Ernesto survives, people can have their major hurricane

[Air Force Met]

no one is worrying about a landfall point. All I was asking was why the ideas of low shear and a building anitcyclone seemed to change to tons of shear all the sudden. Too much back and forth going on.

Not really...there is a building AC...AFTER the shear. Gotta keep up.

[Galvestongirl]

I think the lack of professionalism is horrible, again, if you have a problem with someone........please take it to the PM, I am hear to read about what is going on...not look at this stuff.

[Derek Ortt]

Maybe an analogy can be drawn to Andrew.

It had to survive very hostile conditions for a few days and then the favorable conditions came in

Not saying this will go from a diffuse circ to a 150KT cat 5 in 60 hours, but we could see very rapid intensification if the system survives

I wonder how the board would have been in an Andrew when convection kept firing near the center, only to be blown off for about 3 days

[Air Force Met]

NHC says 12 hours. I guess we'll see who's the best at forecasting it. Good luck.

Actually...Bevin said (not in the discussion...but "elsewhere") that it was 12-24 hours. The HPC said 24 hours and they ALSO did a mesoscale analysis and found 10+knots of 500MB NW shear into the system (another reason for the MLC being distanced)...

And we've been saying 36 hours all day...and 24 hours was this afternoon (at 20Z)...so its about the same time frame.

[StormWarning1]

Hear is part of the 8pm advisory.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 68.4 west or about 285
miles...460 km...south-southeast of Santo Domingo Dominican Republic
and about 600 miles...965 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr

[wxmann_91]

It's got a big roadblock... strong shear from the TUTT. If the TUTT moves away at the right time...into the right place, then this thing could strengthen fast with an anticyclone aloft. If Ernesto dissipates before then... it will take some time to reorganize... and may lose its chance at RI.

I'm still thinking western Gulf, maybe Texas or Mexico, depending on if there will be a developing weakness. I've only looked at the GFS but it maintains a pretty strong ridge over the GOM.

[Air Force Met]

I think the lack of professionalism is horrible, again, if you have a problem with someone........please take it to the PM, I am hear to read about what is going on...not look at this stuff.

Is this the example?

[Extremeweatherguy]

if it survives the next 72 hours it will be a significant GOM hurricane

Be patient EWG and stop freaking out just because ther eis a chance that you won't have a major hurricane in your backyard

Low blow, Derek

yeah it was, because it was incorrect. I am not freaking out because of less of a chance for a storm hitting my area, in fact I was not "freaking out" at all. All I asked was why the ideas seemed to change around so much today. This time last night I was hearing, "anticyclone, low shear, strengthening", and now I am hearing, "ULL, high shear, 50% chance of surviving". It is just very confusing.

EWG I feel your fustration. Just pay attention to the NHC because some on this board change their mind as often as their underwear including me.

yeah, and then their only comeback is to blame me of -removed- this to TX. I mean come on, people should be mature enough to not have to throw a statement like that in everytime I say something they don't like.

I have been through my fair share of hurricanes and other disasters, and I can assure you that I am not wishing this to TX. My area is surrounded by Pine trees, and I really do not want to watch them fall through my roof when a hurricane comes calling.

However, when I come to S2K, I get attacked and told that I am -removed- (even after the same Mets said TX was a likely target themselves just yesterday). I just don't know what to believe anymore. I guess I will just stick to the NHC discussions for now (or at least until things become a little more certain with Ernesto)..