TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[theworld]

It finally chugged off cuba, sheesh.. the whole anti-water thing someone brought up appears to be spot on.

Hi all. Anti-water thing ? what did I miss, been at work.

[gtalum]

I think there's some debate about where exactly the center is. It's tough to find in the mess that is Ernesto.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Riding the coast

[tgenius]

I think there's some debate about where exactly the center is. It's tough to find in the mess that is Ernesto.

Someone a few pages back posted all the instances where Ernie has avoided the warm/easy path

[wxman57]

You can't tell if there's any LLC at all now, much less if it's over land or water. What you're watching is a convective burst to the southeast of the upper low that's retreating westward through the FL Straits. Wind shear has ripped Ernesto to shreads over the past 24 hours, but it still could regenerate an LLC. The wind threat to south Florida is looking like less of an issue. But if Ernesto does survive the night, which it has a good chance of doing, then it will likely track north up the FL peninsula and give them a good bit of rain.

The farther it goes west, the less chance it'll move off the east coast of FL and regenerate off the Carolinas, too. So maybe good news for everyone across the southeast U.S. Rain without much wind is better than a hurricane.

[ROCK]

just thought of something. This is the same area the LLC formerly known as Chris died....must be something in the water in Cuba....

[JonathanBelles]

am i seeing a center at 21.5n 75w?

[Sanibel]

It is still over land. Should re-emerge on a more shallow angle that could take it closer to us on the west coast.

[Scorpion]

I cannot believe the gas lines out here. Its insane. I seriously wanted to tell everyone to go home. Not worth it to spend all that time getting gas for nothing. People are putting shutters up. I think we may see a 40 mph gust, if even that.

[bucman1]

How far west will it go?

And how will that effect track and if any intensity??

[Stormavoider]

just thought of something. This is the same area the LLC formerly known as Chris died....must be something in the water in Cuba....

I think this was Chris' final resting place.

[Annular Cane]

just thought of something. This is the same area the LLC formerly known as Chris died....must be something in the water in Cuba....

Hmmm. Anybody know what Castro has been up to lately?

[CronkPSU]

why do people keep saying chris died over cuba?? it died well before ever reaching cuba

[Sanibel]

You are asking me questions only Ernesto can answer.

The further he stays over land the more west he will hit on Florida if the ridge stays the same.


Heavy downpour here on Sanibel with thunder.

[Nimbus]

You couldn't ask for more inhibiting land interaction so far YAY!

That most recent convective burst offshore looks a little ominous though.

[wxman57]

am i seeing a center at 21.5n 75w?

Definitely not. You won't be able to see an LLC without surface observations. Winds in that area are from the southeast to south.

[ROCK]

why do people keep saying chris died over cuba?? it died well before ever reaching cuba

I said LLC...naked swirl....it was a joke...

[Stormavoider]

why do people keep saying chris died over cuba?? it died well before ever reaching cuba

It's fatal wound was was inflicted well before Cuba. It died over Cuba.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, the hype over this storm is slowly dying down over the tv channels, thank god . Aside from heavy rain, that should be about it....Hopefully it will move quick enough and the convection will die down to prevent any flooding type rains.

[wxman57]

I'll leave you with one more image before I go to bed. It's a surface plot of the area around Ernesto. The flow suggests an open wave - no LLC. It's not definitive, as there are gaps in the coverage. But the NE winds on one side and ESE-SE winds on the other don't indicate an LLC. That should be a NW wind on the north coast of Cuba and west of the trof axis I drew if there was an LLC there, not a NE wind. The circulation Steve Lyons is mentioning now on TWC is a mid level low, not at the surface.