TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Evil Jeremy]

im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.

[HurricaneHunter914]

IF she does become Tip sized (HIGHLY UNLIKELY!) Then the whole east coast will be in trouble.

[Trugunzn]

im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.

I wouldnt be surprise if they do

[tgenius]

gatorcane whats your thoughts.. you buying the models all being pretty much COMPLETELY in agreement, or you think that florence will miss it and keep west.. my only contention against it is simply due to the shear size she has...

[Damar91]

Florence is currently sucking up 91L and is now part of its banding. It's like she is the mother ship out there and sucking everything with it.

We could get feeder bands down here in south florida and canada as well!

[Rainband]

Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina

Who said that??

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok where is the Secondary Shortwave that is expected to swing down and weaken the ridge.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane whats your thoughts.. you buying the models all being pretty much COMPLETELY in agreement, or you think that florence will miss it and keep west.. my only contention against it is simply due to the shear size she has...

she is getting so large that you would think she'll be effected by any slight weakness and want to go poleward the first moment she can. The only chance it going westward is if she somehow slows down enough to miss the weakness of the EC, but supposedly there are a series of shortwaves expected to sweep through over the next week (so if the first one doesn't get her, one of the subsequent ones should).

[gatorcane]

Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina

Who said that??

Derek Ortt was one that said it could...

[sfwx]

The models are as tightly clustered now as I have seen for any storm this year. I think the NHC is pretty confident of their track.

Eric

[gatorcane]

If those models were pointing at Florida right now I would be already evacuating she is so monstrous.

[Rainband]

Some pro mets are saying she will encompass the entire Western Atlantic before all is done and be larger than Wilma and Katrina

Who said that??

Derek Ortt was one that said it could...

Will and could are very different.

[CrazyC83]

If it gets that big, you could fit ALL 31 systems from last year into it...

[Bailey1777]

To put it in perspective look at the grids the convection fills in right now 2 x 2 then look at the GOM and what 2x2 looks like there and thats with a sheared T.S.

[Damar91]

You can tell it's getting late.

[Nimbus]

People up in northern new england and Canada tend to take tropical activity lightly. Hurricane Debby in 1982 went Cat 5 at a high latitude.

Hurricanes do run on the relative heat differential between the surface and upper atmosphere after all.

[ronjon]

Take a look at the MM5 at 120 hrs to see how huge this storm could get - it is so large, it contains a low pressure trough that extends from it into the SW GOM. If this model verified, sea level pressure would fall in a wide arc below 1006 mb across most of the FL peninsula, southern GOM, and western Caribbean - with the main storm center well off into the Atlantic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png

[Damar91]

This could be one of those hurricanes from The Day After Tommorow!

[Stratosphere747]

im seeing torpical storm or hurricane watches possible for the Puerto Rico area soon if thi keeps up.

You should seriously back up those statements with some semblance of reasoning.

There are many Caribbean "lurkers" that would be taken aback by such a statement and would expect nothing less than some sound reasoning....

[Normandy]

I dont get how this storm could move NE with a high (to it north) sliding east with it....can a pro met explain?