SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[jasons2k]

Hey EWG, you're pretty quiet about the front you were talking about. After reading the dicussions this morning, it's obvious that a strong front is no where in the works. Is JB still hyping this up?

Yes, JB is still calling for "big time cold", but it looks like it may be centered more east of here. However, he is still calling for a cool period for the plains and east this week. Also, he thinks the GFS may still be a bit too warm.

Also, in his latest discussion he mentioned a possible "major" arctic invasion into the west and plains by late in the month (around the 20th and beyond), so we will have to see what eventually comes of that..

Lots of watching and waiting in the coming weeks...eventually though, winter will be here.

FWIW I could pull up an archived discussion from JB for any of the last 8 years in late Oct. or early November and he'd be 8 for 8 saying the exact same thing at some point. I'm being totally honest here. I can't recall a single time when he DIDN'T forecast a "major" arctic invasion in late November, specifically after 11/20 (as if that somehow clarfies 'late November'). That date sticks in my mind b/c it's my birthday - and every year he says the exact same thing. Wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that meteorologically, that's when this thing called WINTER arrives?

Anyway, same song, different year...

Sorry for the rant...I just had to learn the hard way...

[JenBayles]

JB likes to hype of any weather event it seems. Doesn't mean he can't be right once in a while. I get a kick out of him.

[Johnny]

I would of liked to have seen what he was looking at at least?

[JenBayles]

I would of liked to have seen what he was looking at at least?

Hey, it's Halloween - could it all be in his mind?!

[TexasStooge]

At least it won't ruin the trick-or-treater's night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If surrounding NWS offices, the models, and accuweather are right, then the Houston NWS's forecast may still be too warm for this upcoming cool weather event. It looks like we will have a hard time getting out of the mid 60s tomorrow through Friday, with the possibility of just lower 60s on Thursday. Also, Thursday night could be the coolest yet so far this season (especially if we clear out). Stay tuned...

By the way, here are the forecasts for this area for Thursday (the coolest day expected):

Houston NWS
High - 67
Low - 52

Accuweather
High - 64
Low - 49

Weather.com
High - 67
Low - 47

Forecast for Beaumont, TX (from their NWS)
High - 65
Low - 46

Forecast for Victoria, TX (from their NWS)
High - 64
Low - 52

Forecast for Austin, TX (from their NWS)
High - 62
Low - 49

[Yankeegirl]

Sounds like I might have to go get some firelogs for Thursday night.... Ahhhh.. sitting by the fire watching ER, sipping Egg Nog.... Sounds perfect!!!

[double D]

Hey EWG, here is an updated forecast for Austin and Fredericksburg.

Austin:Thursday HI. 59 Lo. 49

Fredericksburg: HI. 54 Lo 44

You might be right about the Houston NWS being too warm, they may need to lower their numbers some.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey EWG, here is an updated forecast for Austin and Fredericksburg.

Austin:Thursday HI. 59 Lo. 49

Fredericksburg: HI. 54 Lo 44

You, might be right, the Houston NWS may need to lower their numbers some.

Brr.. 59F is chilly. It would be great if Houston could wind up with those kind of numbers too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well it looks like they are making progress. The Houston NWS just updated their numbers (though they still look a bit high). Here is the latest forecast for northern Harris county:

Wednesday: Showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 70. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 67.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 58.

Also, here is the afternoon AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST TUE OCT 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE THAT CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING NOW INTO MS WHILE ANOTHER
APPROACHES THE EL PASO AREA...STRONGER VORT MAX PASSING OVER BAJA
PENINSULA. THESE TWO FEATURES TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
WEDNESDAY WEATHER. IN THE MEANTIME COLD FRONT ALMOST ON TOP OF
KLHB WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH A BRENHAM TO NEAR CONROE
TO JASPER LINE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE HAUNTING FESTIVITIES. BARRING THE BLOODSUCKERS (MOSQUITOS) IT
SHOULD BE A GOOD EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREATING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO GO UP AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
AFOREMENTION S/W`S AND THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WILL
CARRY 50 TO 60 POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE
STRONGER/RICHER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO OCCUR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW BANDS OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS TRAVERSE THE
REGION IN THE VERY MOIST 850-500MB LAYER. THE LIFT EXITS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS DROP ACCORDINGLY. COOL - DRY AIR
SHOULD BE SPREADING IN ACROSS SETX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY AND A POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY THE RETURN FLOW GETS STRONGER
OVER SETX AND CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CRANK UP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EVENTUALLY THIS LEADS TO A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS MONDAY 15Z-03Z TUESDAY. (IF THE GFS IS CORRECT AS IT HAS
WAFFLED A GREAT DEAL IN THE SUNDAY AND BEYOND TIME PERIOD)

[Extremeweatherguy]

As I suspected...the Houston NWS has lowered their forecast numbers further:

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. North wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 65. North wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

[JenBayles]

Yeah, that low of 43 on Thursday night caught my attention! So did walking out the door with the dogs this morning. BRRRR! I was in no way prepared for the cool air - dogs loved it though.

And Yankee - EGG NOG??!! Bleeecccchh! How about a nice glass of wine instead? At least tell me it's home made? I can't stand that stuff in the carton from the grocery.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm...seems like the NWS's forecast of overcast, 65F and a 50% chance of showers (which was upped from 20% this morning) has busted so far today. Currently I am at 69-70F with partly sunny skies and I have not seen a drop of rain all day!

[Portastorm]

Hmm...seems like the NWS's forecast of overcast, 65F and a 50% chance of showers (which was upped from 20% this morning) has busted so far today. Currently I am at 69-70F with partly sunny skies and I have not seen a drop of rain all day!

Enjoy it while you can, EWG ... y'all are going to get pounded again by late this weekend with more rain!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CST WED NOV 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS POPS TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT A DRIER
NORTHERLY AIR MASS IS BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED OVER SE TX. HAVE
LEFT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EXTREME NE COUNTIES
WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RR JET REGION MAY CLIP THEM BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH JET DYNAMICS MAY BE IN PLACE UP NORTH...THE FACT THAT
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND CURRENT SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 60S UNDER OVC SKIES (CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S)
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
REMAINDER OF EVENING.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE DRIEST DAYS OF THE NEXT
ROLLING 7 DAY WINDOW. WELL-ESTABLISHED NE FLOW SCOURS OUT
SKIES...LOWERS HUMIDITIES...AND REGULATES OUR DAILY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHTS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLY COOL MINIMUMS WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY FLIRT WITH THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
STATES WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INCREASE POPS AS WINDS TURN BACK
AROUND FROM GULF BY MID WEEKEND. BOTH GFS/NAM LEAN TOWARDS WESTERN
WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING ACROSS REGION AND ULTIMATELY PROVIDING
THE LIFT NEEDED IN OUR MOISTENING AIR MASS. THE WEEKEND CLOSES OUT
WITH THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES. 12Z
EUROPEAN RUN NOW IS AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS WITH EJECTING THIS
OVER US IN QUICK FASHION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THIS LOW HANGING BACK
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE LONE WOLF WHICH
STILL HANGS ON TO THE IDEA OF A SLOW MOVING WESTERN LOW. OF
COURSE, THE TIMING OF THIS LOW`S NORTHEAST EJECTION WILL
ULTIMATELY POWER THE POPS GAME MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS,
IT LOOKS LIKE A WET START TO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
31

[Extremeweatherguy]

temps. are nosediving right now in north Houston. I have gone from about 71F at 3pm to about 63-64F right now with a decent north breeze. Starting to feel a bit cool out there.

[Yankeegirl]

I have 63 here... and a nice north wind... I love this weather!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just went outside to check out what it felt like and to my surprise it was raining moderately! This rain has really helped to knock down the temperatures! I am currently at 56F with a stiff north wind and very cold rain. November is here for sure! <<BTW: I can see my breath quite well outside right now (in between gusts of wind).

[Yankeegirl]

Yeah, it was raining out here when I went to HEB earlier... Its 59 out now... still windy too!

[Extremeweatherguy]

the rain got pretty heavy there a few minutes ago, but is tappering down right now. Current temp. is hovering right between 55F and 56F and it feels very chilly with the wind and moisture added in. With temps. already in the middle 50s, I don't think it will take too much to bring us down into the 40s by tomorrow morning.