Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah the low is quite strong, we will know in the next few hours if it will ramp up

What will we see, weather wise, if the low ramps up?

No meteorologist but we could possibly see another line of storms, or just a large rain sheild

[Rgv20]

I hope none of our local posters received any property damage from last night.

Preliminary Storm Damage Survey for SW San Antonio

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO TX...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE AREA ALONG DEER PARK (STREET) IN SOUTHWEST SAN
ANTONIO. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED...

EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012
EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4556/-98.6645 AT 415 AM
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4545/-98.6603
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.27
DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 30

THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND RICHLAND
HILLS DRIVE...AND CONTINUED ALONG DEER PARK TO THE INTERSECTION OF
DEER PARK AND LEANDER. THE PRIMARY DAMAGE WAS A CARPORT BEING
THROWN INTO A HOME AND CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.



Preliminary Storm Damage Survey for NE Austin

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS
MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN. THE
FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED...

EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012
EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 33.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14
DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50

THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE
AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR
2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN
ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION.
FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL...
WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE
WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES. DEBRIS WAS NOTED
ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the lakes in North Texas had a good drink


Area lakes have responded nicely to the recent 3-6 inch rainfall totals. Listed are the 24 hour elevation increases for some of the lakes and reservoirs in North Texas.

[Portastorm]

I've been reading this morning about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM). Seeing some chatter about it online and folks should take notice. The AAM is in a state of flux and this creates havoc with the medium-range models. Reliability is diminished even further than usual.

A good example of this is to compare the 0z Euro operational today with the 0z and 12z Euro op runs from yesterday. Huge differences.

Anyhoo ... point being that none of us should get too worked over about any model solution beyond three days at this point.

[srainhoutx]

Looking ahead as February nears, there are some indications that a change is lurking. I mentioned in the January thread over at KHOU that a mountain torque was developing across Eurasia and that the MJO was waking up from the never ending orbit near the 'circle of death'. The 00Z ensembles suggest the +WPO pattern will shift to that of a -EPO and a nice +PNA ridge develops in the NE Pacific. While the AO still remains somewhat positive, a slow relaxation toward a -AO is suggested by the ensembles. What is rather clear is the active Pacific pattern that has brought us rain since last November with upper lows developing to our W still looks likely. If the MJO forces convective active near the dateline, a +PNA spike would occur. There are many unknowns at this time and when a pattern shift begins, look for model chaos to ensue. We'll see how it all works out, but my hunch is we have not seen the last of cold weather before Spring arrives and February in Texas can bring some very interesting weather. Oh and congrats to all those that received beneficial rains yesterday. That January 25th, +/- a couple of days forecast worked out rather well, didn't it?...

[wxman57]

Maybe we need to change the title of this thread to "Texas Non-Winter 2011-2012"?

I am looking out for the next few weeks and I still don't see any indication of a pattern change. No building cold air in Canada, nothing to bring any such cold air southward. The very long-range GFS, which I trust about as far as I can throw it, hints at another upper-level low/trof moving across Texas the first around the 2nd of February, though the latest run of the Euro has a closed low touching west Texas then moving off to the west and northwest vs. across the state.

I doubt that either model has a clue beyond the next 3-4 days, but given that the most likely forecast would be a continuation of the current pattern, I have to believe that we'll see another such event (trof/upper low moving across Texas) probably within the next 2 weeks.

[Portastorm]

Maybe we need to change the title of this thread to "Texas Non-Winter 2011-2012"?

I am looking out for the next few weeks and I still don't see any indication of a pattern change. No building cold air in Canada, nothing to bring any such cold air southward. The very long-range GFS, which I trust about as far as I can throw it, hints at another upper-level low/trof moving across Texas the first around the 2nd of February, though the latest run of the Euro has a closed low touching west Texas then moving off to the west and northwest vs. across the state.

I doubt that either model has a clue beyond the next 3-4 days, but given that the most likely forecast would be a continuation of the current pattern, I have to believe that we'll see another such event (trof/upper low moving across Texas) probably within the next 2 weeks.

You should look at the 12z Euro run, wxman57. At 216-240 hours, looks a bit chilly for Texas. Then again, we saw this yesterday from the 12z and then the 0z took it away. Just sayin' ...

[wxman57]

You should look at the 12z Euro run, wxman57. At 216-240 hours, looks a bit chilly for Texas. Then again, we saw this yesterday from the 12z and then the 0z took it away. Just sayin' ...

I saw it. The 12Z Euro has a high in Houston of the upper 50s on the 4th and a low down to a frigid 40 degrees on February 5th, and a light freeze possible in Dallas. BRRRR!!!! It doesn't indicate any significant pattern change yet.

Disclaimer: Can't trust any model out beyond 4-5 days now. No matter what the Euro or GFS is forecasting beyond 5 days, the model output is probably wrong (except when the models are forecasting nice, warm weather for me).

[amawea]

I see your staying with the old meteorlogist standard of long range foercasting weatherman57.
"When in doubt, stay with the pattern."

[wxman57]

I see your staying with the old meteorologist standard of long range forecasting weatherman57.
"When in doubt, stay with the pattern."

The pattern seems rather "stuck". Models have been trying to forecast a change, but the change just isn't happening. I'll believe it when I see actual signs of the pattern changing. Until we see a serious build-up of cold air in western Canada along with good model agreement on a building ridge off the west U.S. Coast in the shorter range, I'm not going to forecast any extreme cold down south.

[Ntxw]

Latest update on the lakes around NCTX. These are some pretty nice numbers! Haven't seen that kind of a rise since Hermine made landfall back in 2010. I'm not sure how it works, but eventually parts of SE Texas should benefit as well when the water drains that way, I think! And since we can't seem to get cold down here, another several of these systems after warmth works just as well.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

....NORTH TEXAS LAKES ARE ON THE RISE...

NORTH TEXAS LAKES CONTINUE TO RECEIVE BENEFICIAL INFLOW FROM THE
CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOLLOWING ARE UPDATED
TOTALS OF HOW MUCH SOME OF THE AREA LAKES HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVY RAIN
EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. MOST LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT
IN THEIR WATER LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NUMBERS BELOW REPRESENT
INCREASES SINCE MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LAKE LAKE ELEVATION GAINS THROUGH 1PM THRUSDAY

BENBROOK 5.0 FEET
GRAPEVINE 6.0 FEET
LEWISVILLE 3.1 FEET
JOE POOL 3.8 FEET
LAVON 3.6 FEET
RAY HUBBARD 2.4 FEET
RAY ROBERTS 2.2 FEET
ARLINGTON 6.3 FEET
EAGLE MOUNTAIN 2.8 FEET
LAKE WORTH 2.8 FEET
BRIDGEPORT 2.0 FEET
POSSUM KINGDOM 2.1 FEET
GRANBURY 4.4 FEET
BARDWELL 3.7 FEET
RICHLAND CHAMBERS 1.0 FEET
CEDAR CREEK 1.0 FEET
WHITNEY 3.6 FEET
JIM CHAPMAN 2.6 FEET
TAWAKONI 0.9 FEET

FOR THE LATEST LAKE LEVEL INFORMATION...VISIT:

http://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON NORTH TEXAS

[South Texas Storms]

I see your staying with the old meteorologist standard of long range forecasting weatherman57.
"When in doubt, stay with the pattern."

The pattern seems rather "stuck". Models have been trying to forecast a change, but the change just isn't happening. I'll believe it when I see actual signs of the pattern changing. Until we see a serious build-up of cold air in western Canada along with good model agreement on a building ridge off the west U.S. Coast in the shorter range, I'm not going to forecast any extreme cold down south.

How much longer do you think this pattern will last wxman57? Do you think this pattern could last through February? Maybe another 3-4 upper lows/troughs moving across the state before the pattern changes?

I love this pattern! I don't really care about temperatures. As long as the heavy rains keep coming with regularity and we keep climbing out of the drought, I am one happy man!

[Texas Snowman]

How much longer do you think this pattern will last wxman57? Do you think this pattern could last through February? Maybe another 3-4 upper lows/troughs moving across the state before the pattern changes?

Let's hope so. We still need rain to fill these lakes all the way back up. And every chilly rain event we get is one less day that wxman57 can ride his blasted bike in winter!

[Portastorm]

Hey all ... I have a good read for everyone on here. The author is a guy named Wes Junker who some of us have been following online for awhile. I believe he is very good at what he does and this read is educational and easy-to-understand as he speaks about the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern and how it impacts winter weather. While most of us focuses on what may be ahead for the Eastern Seaboard, I think it has implications for our February as well. Read on ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/february-outlook-another-warm-month-with-less-snow-than-normal-thats-my-guess/2012/01/26/gIQAhnwcTQ_blog.html

[wxman57]

Look on the bright side. Maybe it's not a good pattern for winter in Texas, but it could be worse. Could be warm AND dry.

[Ntxw]

Look on the bright side. Maybe it's not a good pattern for winter in Texas, but it could be worse. Could be warm AND dry.

It has been worse, since early Feb of last year it's been warm (HOT) and dry until December of last month! So it can't really get any worse anyway!

The warm winter has had a more immediate effect on the north Texas economy directly. Low natural gas prices have caused FW (and nearby residences) to lose revenue/jobs from the barnett shale at a time when area cities are cutting budgets and jobs. (Saw this on the news).

At least Wxman57 hasn't gotten his 90 degree day in January!

[MGC]

Lets hope for a pattern change say around July with a nice big EC trough developing and remaining in place the entire Atlantic hurricane season. So, in the interim, lets enjoy the warm winter.....MGC

[Rgv20]

The Monthly Euro that came out today still suggest above normal 500mb Heights for much of February across Texas and the Southeast US which normally would translate to above normal Temperatures. Keeping hope alive...


One a side note this are the temperature departures for the first 3 weeks of January......talk about winter losing the battle in the US.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I haven't even posted this winter, because there hasn't really been a winter. But I'll trade winter for all of this wonderful rainfall we've been getting, ntwmd was so close to going Stage 4 drought rationing, shutting down sprinkler watering period, no car washing for all of the northern burbs. At least this latest round of rain will hold that off for a while, another round of rain like this I may be able to keep my lawn green this summer. I at least would like to keep one day a week of watering through the summer.

A nice February snowfall would be a nice topper though:) But if that's not in the cards, bring on more rain. I was wondering if maybe Texas Snowman could go clean all of those zebra mussels out of Lake Texoma so the water authority could start using Lake Texoma again.

[somethingfunny]

I haven't even posted this winter, because there hasn't really been a winter. But I'll trade winter for all of this wonderful rainfall we've been getting, ntwmd was so close to going Stage 4 drought rationing, shutting down sprinkler watering period, no car washing for all of the northern burbs. At least this latest round of rain will hold that off for a while, another round of rain like this I may be able to keep my lawn green this summer. I at least would like to keep one day a week of watering through the summer.

A nice February snowfall would be a nice topper though:) But if that's not in the cards, bring on more rain. I was wondering if maybe Texas Snowman could go clean all of those zebra mussels out of Lake Texoma so the water authority could start using Lake Texoma again.

I had heard that the zebra mussels go dormant when the lakewater reaches 55 degrees, and that we could pump from Texoma to Lavon once that threshold is met.....I don't think it's anywhere close to that this winter.