Texas Winter 2018-2019

[HockeyTx82]

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but could the snow due west of Denton make it this far? Temps have risen, but could it bring cold air down. Still a chance according to NWS for a mix here, just below criteria per the website. Thoughts? Crickets......... maybe some flurries

[orangeblood]

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but could the snow due west of Denton make it this far? Temps have risen, but could it bring cold air down. Still a chance according to NWS for a mix here, just below criteria per the website. Thoughts? Crickets......... maybe some flurries

Maybe a flurry....HRRR has nada south of the Red River

[Ralph's Weather]

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but could the snow due west of Denton make it this far? Temps have risen, but could it bring cold air down. Still a chance according to NWS for a mix here, just below criteria per the website. Thoughts? Crickets......... maybe some flurries

Maybe a flurry....HRRR has nada south of the Red River

Yep our last bit of fun with this storm will be watching to see if the activity can hold together as it moves east. We really need it to build south a bit which is not looking likely. I think we will be dealing with flurries at best, not looking like the moisture is wrapping around for actual showers. Still hoping that it pulls in moisture as it gets further east.

[Brent]

yeah personally I'm not impressed at all, even OKC Is struggling to get much and they are under a winter storm warning with the dry slot trying to move in

I think even places that got snow are largely underperforming except maybe deeper into SW OK

here's to better setups coming

[Ralph's Weather]

yeah personally I'm not impressed at all, even OKC Is struggling to get much and they are under a winter storm warning with the dry slot trying to move in

I think even places that got snow are largely underperforming except maybe deeper into SW OK

here's to better setups coming

Yep, the wrap around moisture even in OK is not impressive. Can't wait until mid month and beyond when we can get front side snow and not worry about being teased about wrap around flurries.

[WacoWx]

For DFW to really see a good accumulating snow this season, we are going to need to see a 24 hour forecast before the event of 17° and 3"+ of water equivalent directly over DFW. That way, when the nowcasting begins, we will be at 30° and about .5" of water equivalent at 12:1.

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro Ens just came in...it continues to slam the Pac NW and in turn, would flood the US with continued mild/Pacific air. IMO, Need these low anamolies to retrograde before we can get excited about winter around here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Agreed often models underestimate the dry slot. I just hope that as it moves east of I-35 it can wrap some Gulf moisture all the way into the core of the low though that is often a losing bet. Just want to see round 2 of flurries. The real stuff will come mid month and on.

The precip is moving out way earlier than expected unless there's gonna be redevelopment

It looks like this is it for DFW. On to the next almost winter storm...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_42.png

Looks kind of interesting, but there's virtually no run-to-run consistency, aside from some kind of low pressure system kind of near the SW US in that timeframe, plus or minus a few days. It sounds like the large scale pattern becomes more favorable in a couple of weeks, but I think I need a little break from the run-to-run model watching

[Brent]

OKC's forecast just dropped to 3 inches

Getting closer to another bust there lol

Around Lawton look to be the big winners

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Euro Ens just came in...it continues to slam the Pac NW and in turn, would flood the US with continued mild/Pacific air. IMO, Need these low anamolies to retrograde before we can get excited about winter around here.

http://i65.tinypic.com/34ovkzo.jpg

Yea, that is not a good look.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12Z Euro Ens just came in...it continues to slam the Pac NW and in turn, would flood the US with continued mild/Pacific air. IMO, Need these low anamolies to retrograde before we can get excited about winter around here.

http://i65.tinypic.com/34ovkzo.jpg

Yea, that is not a good look.

Winter Cancel.

[Brent]

12Z Euro Ens just came in...it continues to slam the Pac NW and in turn, would flood the US with continued mild/Pacific air. IMO, Need these low anamolies to retrograde before we can get excited about winter around here.

http://i65.tinypic.com/34ovkzo.jpg

Yea, that is not a good look.

Winter Cancel.

spring gets closer everyday

[Cerlin]

Yea, that is not a good look.

Winter Cancel.

spring gets closer everyday

There wasn’t supposed to be a better setup for winter than this—I can’t even get excited for next winter.

[BrokenGlass]

Yea, that is not a good look.

Winter Cancel.

spring gets closer everyday

Yeah, looking at the 7-day forecast, I’m thinking Winter Cancel.


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[orangeblood]

Although GFS ENS has exactly what we'd want to look for...NE Pacific Ridge with blocking over the top. You'd have Arctic HP stacked up on top of each other with that look. It's a long shot but time to start rooting on the GEFS for once!!!

[bubba hotep]

I've been pretty impressed with the GEFS over the last couple of months. It does fumble the MJO at times but usually within a range of know bias, so you can work around that. The 12z run today looks really good in the long range. I'll take my chances with this look anytime!

Below Images are 5-Day Avg, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even colder but we don't need big anomalies in January.

Agreed, that is a great look for the southern plains but I hesitate to buy in until the EPS comes around....its still insistent on the Pacific jet slamming into the Northwest US. Have to get rid of that +EPO, the models continue to push the transition to negative back daily

12z Euro EPS says no winter until... considering lag times, the EPS might not show any cold until end of January (based on today's 12z run). Hopefully, the GEFS wins this battle but potentially we might have to start considering just punting January :wah wah wah:

[orangeblood]

Regarding the Euro ENS, I'm puzzled as to why it isn't picking up on the downward propagation of the Strat Warm and in turn, tanking AO. Something isn't adding up with the long term look

[Ralph's Weather]

Regarding the Euro ENS, I'm puzzled as to why it isn't picking up on the downward propagation of the Strat Warm and in turn, tanking AO. Something isn't adding up with the long term look

Agreed, even with a long lag it should be showing up at the end of the EPS. Leaning GEFS right now. The GEFS is an ideal set up.

[Cpv17]

You guys are putting too much stock into the Euro. It’s been wrong numerous times.

[orangeblood]

Regarding the Euro ENS, I'm puzzled as to why it isn't picking up on the downward propagation of the Strat Warm and in turn, tanking AO. Something isn't adding up with the long term look

Agreed, even with a long lag it should be showing up at the end of the EPS. Leaning GEFS right now. The GEFS is an ideal set up.

Has to be the MJO confusion, the ens members are all over the place....the SOI is finally tanking and should help kick start this then hopefully the -AO overwhelms the Northern Hemispheric pattern. I'm with you, GEFS look makes more sense at this time