2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[underthwx]

06z GFS looks like a carbon copy of Milton track across Florida. This season we've had a similar pattern of landfall with Debby, Helene, and Milton. All eastern GOM storms. Weird how some years you can get repeated strikes. Climatology does argue that if a storm forms in the western Caribbean it will be tough for it to make the latitude of Tampa before being steered off to the east in the westelies. Seems like south Florida and the keys need to be watching this one closely.

Agree.....I have read that.....definitely needs to be monitired...I hope Florida residents...or any others will NOT have to deal with yet another cyclone.....im staying tuned...

[underthwx]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.

https://i.imgur.com/Cstuy67.png

https://i.imgur.com/D7euGdg.png

Kevin....are most of the models starting to align with each other on this as each day passes?..

[underthwx]

When do you think the NHC will start including this development in the outlooks?

Probably when the formation outlook chances are closer to the long term outlook timeframe?.....I hope that makes sense....I look everyday...expecting to see the NW Caribbean highlighted....im guessing within the next day or so?...if you read Aspens post on the previous page....between Oct 30 and November 3rd....that time-frame perhaps?...so I would imagine the NHC will highlight an area of interest fairly soon?....

[aspen]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.

https://i.imgur.com/Cstuy67.png

https://i.imgur.com/D7euGdg.png

Kevin....are most of the models starting to align with each other on this as each day passes?..

The time frame for development on the GFS has been around October 30th for the last several days of model runs. It’s been very consistent in that regard, even if the final intensity and track varies a lot (it still is over a week out, after all).

[Tekken_Guy]

How likely is it to affect the eastern seaboard north of FL?

[kevin]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.

https://i.imgur.com/Cstuy67.png

https://i.imgur.com/D7euGdg.png

Kevin....are most of the models starting to align with each other on this as each day passes?..

Many other models also show development, albeit slower than GFS. 00z Euro (both the operational and the ensemble) has lows in the WCar, the operational specifically has a broad 1005 mb low. Meanwhile many GEFS members already have a hurricane approaching Cuba around that time. Note, that most GEFS members are also more east than the operational and could thus avoid the US. Avoiding Cuba is less likely. Other models such as ICON don't go out far enough yet to show the system and of course the hurricane models aren't running yet.

GFS is very consistent in both the genesis and timeframe of the system, but I wouldn't say that other models are starting to align with it yet. Considering the favorable background conditions I would say it is a reasonable option. Of course the NHC has no area tagged yet. However, because of the overwhelming support for very favorable background conditions I'd put development chances sometime over the next 2 weeks at +80%. And with that I simply mean the development of a TC in the WCar, not the chance of a hurricane affecting the US. GFS does sometimes show faster WCar development than is the case in reality so I wouldn't be surprised if the timeframe moves back a few days. But considering the potential impact of an election day Florida hurricane, I would consider it as a possible (but at the moment not expected) option.

[Michele B]

:double: Can't we just will this to go away? Someone turn on the South Florida shield. Not really ready to deal with this again after the Milton tornado fest.

Yeah, you guys really got a whooping in Milton.

It's the threat of tornadoes during hurricanes that scares me most. I'm so sorry for all the devastation this one caused. My dad lived and worked in PSL for the past 40 years (he's passed now), so I'm very familiar with the town. Watched it "grow" as he built it. He was a custom home builder, so he built a lot of the homes there.

[Michele B]

Fortunately no model support for this other than GFS, right?

The Euro ensembles and the Canadian ensembles lend at least some support to the GFS solution.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbWdjMmVkejluazB3Zmh6d2l5NGttMzkwODd5dGE0NzhocGdob2VlbyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/mhjj0JvRVv4jUbqkb8/giphy.gif

What says Bernie Rayno from Accuweather? He sniffed out Milton before it was a puff of clouds. I think Oscar, too.

[Michele B]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.


https://i.imgur.com/D7euGdg.png

Well, THAT's the last shot I wanted to see!

[Michele B]

Might as well show the money shot

https://i.imgur.com/WgCipGZ.png

Election day hurricane.

Vote early! I did.

One less thing to do before preparing for the next 'cane.

[underthwx]

06z GFS is determined to continue Florida's hurricane rampage this year and also adds Cuba to the mix.

https://i.imgur.com/Cstuy67.png

https://i.imgur.com/D7euGdg.png

Kevin....are most of the models starting to align with each other on this as each day passes?..

Many other models also show development, albeit slower than GFS. 00z Euro (both the operational and the ensemble) has lows in the WCar, the operational specifically has a broad 1005 mb low. Meanwhile many GEFS members already have a hurricane approaching Cuba around that time. Note, that most GEFS members are also more east than the operational and could thus avoid the US. Avoiding Cuba is less likely. Other models such as ICON don't go out far enough yet to show the system and of course the hurricane models aren't running yet.

GFS is very consistent in both the genesis and timeframe of the system, but I wouldn't say that other models are starting to align with it yet. Considering the favorable background conditions I would say it is a reasonable option. Of course the NHC has no area tagged yet. However, because of the overwhelming support for very favorable background conditions I'd put development chances sometime over the next 2 weeks at +80%. And with that I simply mean the development of a TC in the WCar, not the chance of a hurricane affecting the US. GFS does sometimes show faster WCar development than is the case in reality so I wouldn't be surprised if the timeframe moves back a few days. But considering the potential impact of an election day Florida hurricane, I would consider it as a possible (but at the moment not expected) option.

Great reply!...thankyou!....I am like yall....watching and waiting to see what may evolve....and I do hope that IF....a cyclone should form...that it will not pose a threat to anyone...that goes without saying....but as each day passes...its becoming more and more possible....that something will form out there in the Caribbean.....thanks again!...

[xironman]

I know the issues with using ensemble means, but they kind of do boil things down. So here are the big 3 at 240, if that is not a signal I don't know what is

[jlauderdal]

Fortunately no model support for this other than GFS, right?

The Euro ensembles and the Canadian ensembles lend at least some support to the GFS solution.

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbWdjMmVkejluazB3Zmh6d2l5NGttMzkwODd5dGE0NzhocGdob2VlbyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/mhjj0JvRVv4jUbqkb8/giphy.gif

What says Bernie Rayno from Accuweather? He sniffed out Milton before it was a puff of clouds. I think Oscar, too.

He was good with Helen and Milt but over hyped the last system that went into CA.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[ScottNAtlanta]

Might as well show the money shot

https://i.imgur.com/WgCipGZ.png

Election day hurricane.

Cannot imagine the unprecedented implications of that.

Lets not, but say we did

[Coolcruiseman]

Crazy the implications this could have for Election Day if a track like the 6z GFS comes to fruition. And not just for those of us in Florida.

So perhaps this is the October surprise?

[SFLcane]

Seems to me the NHC might just continue to ignore the overly aggressive bias issues from the ( give florida something ) gfs model in the days to come unless the signal holds or some other models jump onboard maybe a mention this weekend till then its just another gfs fantasy model cane.

[chaser1]

The primary catalyst for the GFS solution appears to be a combination of the northward bowing of the ITCZ from the EPAC into Central America, into the W Caribbean. This in tandem with a Westward moving tropical wave an increase in convection this weekend appears to become the nest where this potential disturbance eventually develops. I would assume that NHC might hold off until Saturday prior to putting out a possible 0/50 "Lemon" for this area.

[chaser1]

6 straight model runs that GFS has been consistent with a <1003 mb low developing in the W Caribbean on October 30.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS having a field day in Cuba

[chaser1]

Yeah, Cuba can't seem to catch a break with potential - Patty. Now begins an additional 6-18 hr crawl westward before feeling the SW flow ahead of the advancing cold front. Looking like another Fla west coast smack-down coming on this run.