Ivan Advisories

CalmBeforeStorm · #2401 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:26 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:still out of touch with reality is the GFS, but it at least has shifted somewhat to the west

Reality is yet to be determined. Are you SURE you have a handle on it?

Derek Ortt · #2402 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:26 pm

I am confident enough that this will miss Miami that I currently have no intentions of making any storm rpeparations at the present time

B-Bear · #2403 Postby **B-Bear** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:27 pm

What's he moving at now?

Anonymous · #2404 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:27 pm

Do you think it moves south of Jamaica?

If it moves south, Derek, I think it ends up near the eastern side of the Yucatan channel.

krisj · #2405 Postby **krisj** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:27 pm

Do ya'll feel like you are watching a ping pong match? Left, right, left, right...

huricanwatcher · #2406 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:28 pm

gonna ride the coast........ unfortunately. IMO

Derek Ortt · #2407 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:28 pm

he looks to be moving about 290, which would bring that northern eye wall over the western portion of the island

catzmeow · #2408 Postby **catzmeow** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:28 pm

I wasn't here for Kate (we moved here in 99). But, I certainly am scared enough right now that I can't imagine doing this without dear hubby. Seriously, if y'all need anything, e-mail me.

Catz

krisj · #2409 Postby **krisj** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:29 pm

Yeah, but which coast???

B-Bear · #2410 Postby **B-Bear** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:29 pm

In other words, every little jog matters.

yoda · #2411 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:29 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:gonna ride the coast........ unfortunately. IMO

Actually no... it makes landfall again in the NC/SC border line..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

marc21688 · #2412 Postby **marc21688** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

When do the new models come out?

#2413 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

Assuming the continuation of periodic jogs to the west as Ivan feels small-scale weaknesses and strengths in the ridge, w/ a mostly WNW direction overall, this should stay just south of Jamaica. This will be, of course, true unless you believe the GFS's new rapid shift to the NW shortly.

Lindaloo · #2414 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

It is still too early to tell where he will go.

#2415 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

yoda wrote:
huricanwatcher wrote:gonna ride the coast........ unfortunately. IMO

Actually no... it makes landfall again in the NC/SC border line..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

....o.k. yoda....thats if you believe in the gfs....be nice!!

Matthew5 · #2416 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

Derek the pressure is back down to around 920 millibars? Do you think its a cat5 again???

Deana Cuevas · #2417 Postby **Deana Cuevas** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:30 pm

Most of us in Florida are very scared about this one. We have been hit 2 times already and we are really running out of supplies. I have 3 dogs and refuse to leave my home. I just found this site. I really have to say thanks to everyone. I trust this much more than my local weather people.

x-y-no · #2418 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:31 pm

According to the NHC 5pm discussion, he's moving at 300.

btsgmdad · #2419 Postby **btsgmdad** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:31 pm

920 mb again!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409092200

Guest · #2420 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:31 pm

Direct hit near Kingston, slighty south of that. No doubt in my mind he will hit Jam and anahilate it.

Ivan Advisories

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