ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Sean in New Orleans]

Let's just see the forecast in a couple of hours...don't want a panic. But, it is trending West and has for days now...remember originally this system was forecasted to pass WELL EAST of Bermuda....

[SunnyThoughts]

Try and sleep tonight, as much as you can. Hopefully Earl will miss all of you east coasters..off to the east. I know how the worry takes a toll on you, from years of experience living here along the gulf coast. Take care and be prepared.

[Weather Watcher]

what the heck is that coming up behind Fiona??

Don't look now, but there is definitely some interesting stuff rolling off Africa. The one you see in that loop and also some more storms coming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

All it takes is for a strong ridge to get set up at the right time to allow one of these to pass west and things get interesting.

yipes

[SouthFLTropics]

Let's just see the forecast in a couple of hours...don't want a panic. But, it is trending West and has for days now...remember originally this system was forecasted to pass WELL EAST of Bermuda....

You bring up a good point Sean...The forecast has continually shifted west throughout the life of Earl...

SFT

[Stephanie]

I'm in Norfolk, Virginia and year after year (after year), we're told that we're going to get hit with Hurricanes. The last really, really bad storm to hit us (IMHO) was the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. There are no words to describe the build up that this area has seen since 1962, and most of it is pretty shabby construction. (I'm an architectural historian.)

My question is, I'd like to hear opinions as to whether or not y'all think this one might be headed our way? Heretofore, most storms hit the outer banks and bounce out to sea.

Any guesses when Hurricane Earl might hit the East Coast - and when?

Rose Thornton
Norfolk, VA

Hello Rose!

The best graphic that I think would be good to look at is this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

The white shaded area, or "the cone" shows that between 2pm Thursday and 2 pm Friday Earl is going to be closest to the NC/VA border.

[Florida1118]

It's trending West...I'm getting concerned about the East Coast. This could trigger a completely massive evacuation. If this thing heads to NYC...you are looking at a huge evacuation.

They would try to evac. but many people according to EMC are unprepared and really dont know much about the tropics. But at Cat. 1-2 it would be pretty bad up in NYC. I dont think it would surpass andrew or Katrina but people would make a big deal about Earl.

The building codes aren't anywhere NEAR what you have down there for hurricanes in some areas. The population itself hasn't been through anything quite as severe in decades. The homes around the shorelines are not on stilts. The bridges in NYC can only hold so many cars/buses/trucks at once. We're talking millions of more people than what's down in the NO area and that was horrible enough and NO was on the west side of the storm. Storm surge, anyone??

Ya I heard A cat. 3 I believe would push massive amounts of water (30ft or so) into NYC. Eeek. I didnt figure the building codes werent as high there, but really here in Tampa building codes aren't all that impressive as Miami.

[Stephanie]

Try and sleep tonight, as much as you can. Hopefully Earl will miss all of you east coasters..off to the east. I know how the worry takes a toll on you, from years of experience living here along the gulf coast. Take care and be prepared.

Thank you.

[gpickett00]

I'm looking at my GR Level3 software from the Puerto Rico radar site and from 7:09 to 8:45 earl has moved 24nm @ 303 degrees which is a little bit west of NW if I am doing this right. From what I've read, movement can't be perfectly tracked by radar but it's the best I've got for now. Does this seem accurate? I placed a marker at the center of the eye at 7:09 p.m. and then put my mouse in the center at 8:45 and it showed 307 degrees. I'd like to know someones opinion who is more experienced. Thanks!

[Stephanie]

Speaking of evacuation im making the decision tommorow. If the models keep pushing west theres no way in hell im gonna ride this one out in a mobile home.

You'd BETTER NOT!!

[dixiebreeze]

30/2345 UTC 19.6N 65.2W T6.5/6.5 EARL -- Atlantic

Earl is mighty.

[rosethornil]

The building codes aren't anywhere NEAR what you have down there for hurricanes in some areas. The population itself hasn't been through anything quite as severe in decades.

For years, here in Norfolk (Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Hampton, etc), building codes were incredibly lax. Sheetrock (3/8" thick) was the strongest physical component of a home's sheathing. No kidding. Styrofoam exterior sheathing was placed over 2x4s, and then vinyl siding was placed over the styrofoam sheathing. Realtors joked that you could break into a house by cutting through the walls with nothing fancier than a utility knife. It was true. Then the code was upgraded, requiring plywood sheathing at corners.

Few people know this, but the fact is, vinyl siding is only rated to 100 mph. AFter that, you're on your own. If we ever see a real storm here in Hampton Roads, there's going to be a lot of plastic piled up somewhere...

Rose Thornton

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, you know us....we always talk about it first before it hits the airwaves...this is truly the best place to be for those on the East Coast that want to follow Earl like a hawk. But, please sleep tonight! You'll be sleepless later if this storm comes very close.....but, not tonight. Sleep tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

Everything will be key as to how far Earl is offshore at any one particular location up the east coast. If Earl stays offshore depending how far offshore and you are on the western flank from the Eye you could experience some strong tropical force winds and maybe gusts over hurricane strength if you are within 75 miles or so of the eye. If Earl is right along the coast or just inland it would be much worse, especially any points north and east of a landfall.

Everyone up the east coast should listen to OFFICIAL Information and forecasts and act on their requests and advice to save life and property!!!

[Stephanie]

As of 5PM CDT, the SEF/ERC probability model is now estimating an 82% chance of at least one event in the next 12 hours, and a 100% chance in the next 36 hours. The model suggests the potential for repeated ERCs in the next 2 days.

So I wouldn't joke too much about noticing an ERC in progress. It is in progress.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Julanne]

Well, you know us....we always talk about it first before it hits the airwaves...this is truly the best place to be for those on the East Coast that want to follow Earl like a hawk. But, please sleep tonight! You'll be sleepless later if this storm comes very close.....but, not tonight. Sleep tonight.

Thank you Sean. Words of Wisdom

[Stephanie]

Well, you know us....we always talk about it first before it hits the airwaves...this is truly the best place to be for those on the East Coast that want to follow Earl like a hawk. But, please sleep tonight! You'll be sleepless later if this storm comes very close.....but, not tonight. Sleep tonight.

Yes, thank you Sean and everyone! We haven't seen anything like all of you have, but I feel I'm with kindred spirits!

Maybe a little wine will help...

[Raebie]

It certainly can't hurt.

[Buck]

I'm not nervous for myself (safe here in Atlanta), but I haven't gotten this nervous about a storm in a while it seems. A lot of people could potentially be affected by this. A lot of people already have. A lot of uncertainty.

[wx247]

Just a note to all... if this does start to head toward the east coast of the US... make sure to pay attention to local sources of information for details on your specific area. The national news networks will sensationalize things. Make sure to always attend to the local agencies for your official info.

[Dean4Storms]

The timing of the trough swinging through the Great lakes down into the midwest as Earl makes his approach to roughly 35N will be key to if Earl recurves enough to miss NC and points further north. The smallest delay in that trough could make a BIG difference here in this scenario!!! Going to be close either way!!!