ATL: ISAAC - Models

[meriland23]

Why is it that 12z euro and 0z euro are constantly like night and day? Back and forth?

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO tomorrow shows this, then I'm convinced. It would be a super KO over the "others." Still have my doubts.

[Agua]

Wait until we get about 3 days out. By that time, the models have a pretty good handle on it within the cone or error. Before then, the thing could go anywhere and there's no point in getting upset, just something to keep an eye on (and unquestionably, HERE, lack of an eye on a storm is something that is NOT going to happen).

[Weatherfreak000]

My mom was watching fox news and when they started talking about Isaac she was like "pff, what a dud, don't know why they are even paying attention to this, they said it right there.. only a category 1" I was like "there is a big toss up, could be a cat 3" she was like " yeah, right.. you know everything Sarah.. these are professionals, not you" LMFAO

XD hilarious story I know the feeling.

[KWT]

12z EURO tomorrow shows this, then I'm convinced. It would be a super KO over the "others." Still have my doubts.

If it came off it'd probably be the biggest shift I've seen westwards since Ike, but there is an awfully long way to go yet...

[SunnyThoughts]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

Nonsense. It's a viable solution. Remember, we are talking the 5-7 day time frame here, and subtle changes in the forecast ridge strength can have large effects on the eventual track. I'm not surprised in the slightest to see this shift, nor would I have been overly surprised to see it shift east. It certainly doesn't mean the model has lost credibility and should be disregarded.

As stated before, the ECMWF and GFS are both good models and *neither* should be discounted unless there are very good reasons to do so. Again, that is not the case here: both solutions are meteorologically possible.

wthrman13, when do you think we will be close enough to be able to narrow down within a couple hundred miles? Probably not till Sunday?

[psyclone]

What is going on now Texas is in Play. The Euro model has lost credibility and need to be disregarded at this time.

Nonsense. It's a viable solution. Remember, we are talking the 5-7 day time frame here, and subtle changes in the forecast ridge strength can have large effects on the eventual track. I'm not surprised in the slightest to see this shift, nor would I have been overly surprised to see it shift east. It certainly doesn't mean the model has lost credibility and should be disregarded.

As stated before, the ECMWF and GFS are both good models and *neither* should be discounted unless there are very good reasons to do so. Again, that is not the case here: both solutions are meteorologically possible.

thank you for delivering conistent, reliable and urgently needed sanity to this board. I (and I'm sure many others) appreciate it.

[Wthrman13]

wthrman13, when do you think we will be close enough to be able to narrow down within a couple hundred miles? Probably not till Sunday?

At the very earliest.

[MidnightRain]

So right now the swath is from the peninsula to Texas, and if you split it down the middle it's New Orleans to Panama City.....which is where I think the consensus will end up over the next 2-3 days. JMO based on what I've seen from past storms.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KBBOCA]

the EURO ensembles later will be VERY interesting!!

Meanwhile.... over on the discussion thread, some are wondering aloud if this is still a storm or merely a wave given the difficulty of finding a center and conflicting wind readings!

This storm is indeed maddening and I think long would have lost the attention of many of us were it not for its massive size and incredible potential for damage if it ramps up and takes a track close to what has been forecast.

Thanks so much to all of the mets and really knowledgeable posters who are helping us true amateurs trying to understand what's going on!

[tolakram]

Lets limit the discussion to models and STOP the side talking and one liners.

[meriland23]

Oh well, I did tell her about the Euro and GFS models, she thinks it is bologna " I trust what fox news and the weather channel shows me, I like their models" .. "mom.. they get their models FROM mainly GFS and Euro" .. " no they don't, besides, when has Europe ever given a crap about us?" ...I wish I were kidding..

[Kingarabian]

Oh well, I did tell her about the Euro and GFS models, she thinks it is bologna " I trust what fox news and the weather channel shows me, I like their models" .. "mom.. they get their models FROM mainly GFS and Euro" .. " no they don't, besides, when has Europe ever given a crap about us?" ...I wish I were kidding..

:LOL:

Okay sorry Tolakram - Back on topic.

I wish they flew that G-IV flight sooner with occasional samples afterwards.

[wxman76]

Here is my take on all this. The euro cannot be disreguarded. It has a high reputation. I was asked about Texas this morning well b4 the Euro and here is what I told them. This is likely to be a major hurricane and there are too many unknowns right now. Everybody on the Gulf Coast should be watchful not just Florida. Of course didn't fully expect the Euro. I looked at the initialization of model and didn't see any glaring reasons to discredit it. At this time it's not the most likely option, but face it it is an option. Meteorologically i can see how this happens. i wouldn't forecast it right now but i wouldn't discount it either. Just my opinion.

[meriland23]

back on subject:

I do wish that these tv stations explained that there are quite a few reputable models, and show how different each track is vs just going by the 'one' track nhc puts out. If people saw how Euro goes near tx and gfs near fl, a LOT more people would pay attention and subsequently maybe save more lives in the event it is major and hits a specific area.. cause they were more focused further out, more time to prepare in case.

[Kingarabian]

Here is my take on all this. The euro cannot be disreguarded. It has a high reputation. I was asked about Texas this morning well b4 the Euro and here is what I told them. This is likely to be a major hurricane and there are too many unknowns right now. Everybody on the Gulf Coast should be watchful not just Florida. Of course didn't fully expect the Euro. I looked at the initialization of model and didn't see any glaring reasons to discredit it. At this time it's not the most likely option, but face it it is an option. Meteorologically i can see how this happens. i wouldn't forecast it right now but i wouldn't discount it either. Just my opinion.

wxman76, I think very few people here are discrediting the Euro. Isaac still has no dominant center and it continues to trek west. The longer it takes to develop the more likely the whole GOM states come in play.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

back on subject:

I do wish that these tv stations explained that there are quite a few reputable models, and show how different each track is vs just going by the 'one' track nhc puts out. If people saw how Euro goes near tx and gfs near fl, a LOT more people would pay attention and subsequently maybe save more lives in the event it is major and hits a specific area.. cause they were more focused further out, more time to prepare in case.

When I 1st started to track Hurricanes I was 11 (using TWC) in 2004 and until 2009, I had no idea that computer forecasting models existed until I came here. Little do people know about these models and it may be a good thing. Don't want an overreaction over a few runs that never came into fruition.

[Ptarmigan]

Why is it that 12z euro and 0z euro are constantly like night and day? Back and forth?

The models always change. The Euro model has been accurate in regards to hurricanes.

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2012/mo ... l_2011.png

[deltadog03]

I will re-phrase....I think the EURO is too far west...period...Its the ONLY one out there...could it be right? absolutely!! However, right now, I still think its an outlier. We shall see.

[fci]

There remain so many unknowns that it is no wonder that there are diverse model solutions.
Where will the center finally come together?
How much land interaction will there be?
In the land interaction will it be mountainous?
Until these questions can be answered and/or resolve themselves, all from the Atlantic East Coast to the GOM Texas coast need to follow.
Trashing this model vs. that model is fruitless until the questions are answered.

[SunnyThoughts]