sponger wrote:Yep looks like it could be blocked from escape. So hard to get any reliability this far out but GFS builds back a large ridge fairly quickly. SFL to Maine still in play. We should know a lot more by Sunday. Got Bill Burr tickets for Friday night next week so as much as I love tropical weather, I will root for a fish!
Honestly, I am not buying the soon to be degraded Western edge of the low to mid level ridge to the north of the storm and I think the GOM is still in play. Sudden and changing 500mb anomaly forecasts showing present ridging over the Southwest Atlantic turning into some weak trough-ridge-trough pattern makes me very suspicious. Strangely, the models that i'd have the very LEAST faith in (CMC, GFDS, NASA?) are those insisting a bit more of a westward motion yet there's no reasonable explanation how/why the far more sophisticated models such as GFS, UK, and EURO would not pick up on any dynamics where the lessor models should be lacking. It'll be interesting to see whether the 18Z (but for sure the 0Z) GFS runs imply a different view of the 2-6 day range. To be honest though, I'm not anticipating that any westward shift by the GFS or EURO will be indicated, and perhaps even show a more northerly/northeasterly component. Almost feels like 10 people are all seeing a ghost but I"m not seeing it. "It must be there, but is disconcerting that I"m not able to visualize it" LOL