ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[oyster_reef]

It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...

its been said over and over, 5 day tracks just don't verify, im not being a wise-a** when i say you want to be right on the line on a 5 day because there is a 300 mile error at 5 days, one of these times the nhc track will verify but so far they just don't so before everyone starts extrapolating out these runs take a step back and see what transpires, the atmosphere is fluid not stuck in time, in fact its already changed immensely since i started writing this..that being said, all interest from houston to tampa should be watching and be ready this weekend to act if required. I have been on the line so many times i feel like a tight rope walker and you know how many times I actually was directly hit by a system..not many.

we live on that rope and keep getting hit... over and over again.
very depressing

[gatorcane]

Derek yes and hence the bolded note.

Interestingly enough Fay, followed climatology pretty closely despite numerous forecasts that it would be a FL Panhandle or a bit farther west threat.

For anybody that wants to look back at climo, here is the link:
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[Sanibel]

I think my speculation about conditions keeping intensity down has been answered by Gus. Once a good prime season core gets going in the Caribbean the intensity questions answer themselves. I see Gus went even more left on NHC track as we speculated last night. Mattpetre might be wrong about it not touching Haiti (he might still be right too) but his logic was sound as the storm is veering well left.

Obviously the board doesn't need me to interpret what this storm will do if it follows NHC's track and intensity. Serious business for some people on the shores of the Gulf. A mean customer at primetime.

So far I think Haiti hasn't gotten the worst of what it could have gotten as far as rain, but that could change.

[Stratosphere747]

The "climo" thing is great to apply around the water cooler or after the season. Within a evolving situation the ideal is bunk. Of course IMO.

[Stormcenter]

If you look back at climatology and search all CAT 1 (what Gustav is right now) hurricanes in August that have passed within 65 nautical miles of where Gustav is currently located, you'll be surprised. There have been only 3:

Two hit Florida
1 hit Texas

Now if you expand the search and look at all storms and hurricanes (not just CAT 1) for the query above, you will find:

East of Florida: 1
South Florida: 3
Panhandle of Florida: 2
Yucatan Pen.: 4
Western GOM (west of south central LA): 6

Climatology suggests Gustav would either stay in the Eastern GOM or Florida or head much more west toward the Yucatan or far Western GOM....

Climatology does not favor the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Note: Climatology is just a reference and no forecast should be based on climatology alone.

Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor. Now Texas and FL well that's another thing. Anyway there is always a first time so let's just hope this thing is overestimated flop and no one is seriosuly affected by it.

the atmosphere does not care one bit about climo!

It only cares about what is happening right now

Yeah but you still have to weigh it in at some point in your forecast.
There is a reason why it hasn't happened in the past and it's
not just luck. But as I said before there is always a first
time for everything. I just hope for their sake it's not with Gustav. IMO

[Portastorm]

How would y'all razz me if I was wrong. Anyway, BRO to BPT is a small fraction of the Gulf, and I still expect this will avoid it. Just saying it'd be silly not to take reasonable precautions, as early as possible, to avoid the rush, even when the chances of impact locally are remote. Nothing but the flashlight batteries, which eventually run down, goes to waste.

C'mon Ed, ante up!

If me and ROCK are wrong, I'll buy you a Shiner Bock here in Austin as we raise our bottles in a celebratory toast after the Longhorns thrash Florida Atlantic.

[tolakram]

the atmosphere does not care one bit about climo!

It only cares about what is happening right now

And to add my opinion to that, we don't have nearly enough data to feel comfortable about climatology. I could flip a coin 20 times and end up with 15 heads and think I was onto something. I really hate to see climatology brought up when discussing hurricane tracks. Be prepared, and start to worry once the storm is closer to your location.

[Ivanhater]

Derek's recent blog on PNJ..

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... fe.pnj.com

[Sanibel]

I noticed last night that the thickest cluster of tracks from this point was towards Texas.

That said what Derek said is absolutely right and the ONLY thing concerning this storm right now is the steering currents in front of it as they play out over the next few days.

[cpdaman]

lets see how gustav likes that arm of mountains to it's north and north west and WNW.

[gatorcane]

lets see how gustav likes that arm of mountains to it's north and north west and WNW.

Indeed a major hurricane Gustav in the GOM is FAR from certain at this point, despite many posts I am seeing on the possibility. Gustav may take a path through more land interaction that would seriously weaken him or keep him in check.

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks like the Core of Gus is trying to get a bit better formed maybe a eye trying to form. A CAT2 for 11am Adv????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

I am paying attention to heights in the Bahamas and Southern FL. Check out the surface pressures along the SE Coast of Florida --- all around 29.91 inches and slowly rising but have not risen much in the past 24 hours. All stations reporting light south winds.

That just doesn't seem like strong western Atlantic ridging to me -- perhaps its building in though (or maybe it isn't)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/observations.php

W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 82 76 81 S5 29.90R
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 84 77 79 S3 29.91R
POMPANO BEACH SUNNY 84 78 82 S6 29.91R HX 95
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 84 77 79 CALM 29.93R
MIAMI MOSUNNY 85 76 74 S6 29.91R
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 84 78 82 S6 29.91R HX 95
HOMESTEAD SUNNY 84 78 80 S3 29.91R HX 95

[oyster_reef]

lets see how gustav likes that arm of mountains to it's north and north west and WNW.

Indeed a major hurricane Gustav in the GOM is FAR from certain at this point, despite many posts I am seeing on the possibility. Gustav may take a path through more land interaction that would seriously weaken him or keep him in check.

But it IS the official NHC forcast.

[weatherguru18]

Geez, what a tiny little hurricane. Reminds me of Cyclone Tracy...though Tracy was about half the size of Gustav.

[Praxus]

we live on that rope and keep getting hit... over and over again.
very depressing

If you feel that way about it, I'd consider moving!

[oyster_reef]

we live on that rope and keep getting hit... over and over again.
very depressing

If you feel that way about it, I'd consider moving!

i did. moved my family from MS coast to north mobile bay area. quite a bit higher.
happy now?

[mattpetre]

If you look back at climatology and search all CAT 1 (what Gustav is right now) hurricanes in August that have passed within 65 nautical miles of where Gustav is currently located, you'll be surprised. There have been only 3:

Two hit Florida
1 hit Texas

Now if you expand the search and look at all storms and hurricanes (not just CAT 1) for the query above, you will find:

East of Florida: 1
South Florida: 3
Panhandle of Florida: 2
Yucatan Pen.: 4
Western GOM (west of south central LA): 6

Climatology suggests Gustav would either stay in the Eastern GOM or Florida or head much more west toward the Yucatan or far Western GOM....

Climatology does not favor the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Note: Climatology is just a reference and no forecast should be based on climatology alone.

Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor. Now Texas and FL well that's another thing. Anyway there is always a first time so let's just hope this thing is overestimated flop and no one is seriosuly affected by it.

the atmosphere does not care one bit about climo!

It only cares about what is happening right now

Well technically the atmosphere doesn't "care" at all, it just is and does.

[gatorcane]

Gustav appears to be moving NW still and looks like it is going to make landfall in Haiti. Lets hope Haiti fairs out okay and let our thoughts be with them. I don't see any evidence of a west turn just yet.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[jlauderdal]

It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...

its been said over and over, 5 day tracks just don't verify, im not being a wise-a** when i say you want to be right on the line on a 5 day because there is a 300 mile error at 5 days, one of these times the nhc track will verify but so far they just don't so before everyone starts extrapolating out these runs take a step back and see what transpires, the atmosphere is fluid not stuck in time, in fact its already changed immensely since i started writing this..that being said, all interest from houston to tampa should be watching and be ready this weekend to act if required. I have been on the line so many times i feel like a tight rope walker and you know how many times I actually was directly hit by a system..not many.

You don't think I realize this? I've tracked tropical systems for almost 18 years now... I even studied meteorology for 3 semesters at FSU before switching majors...

with that resume than you will agree that a system pointed right at NO at 5 days is just what they want