ATL: IRENE - Models

[tolakram]

Yea, just as a reminder, here is the 144 hour Euro from the previous run.

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And now the GFS is in the same general area. The Euro does skim all of Florida on that run so it will be interesting to see if it shifts right but ends up in the same general area, or moves up the coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

@gatorcane

The GFDL eventually takes it through the central keys and hits Naples, FL.

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z GFS 90 hours, deepening system headed towards FL straits / South Florida. Big weakness right over the Florida peninsula, its going to hit it you would think:

[img]

GFS or GFDL?

[plasticup]

Could be a real doozy for South Carolina

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12006-1313947818_thumb.jpg

That would be the end of Savannah. I mean, jeeze. At least Florida is kind of prepared for hurricanes, but Savannah is so old and low-lying... and that river delta. It would be awful.

[KWT]

Gee, we "get lucky" again, I guess. Although I'm not sure any of the models handle interaction with land very well. I think it could get ripped apart somewhat by Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and make it head further west than it otherwise would - scoring a direct hit on SFL, albeit as a weaker system.

It is way too early to say that. The GFS has a tendency to underdo ridges and overdo troughs.

The reason why I'd be a little more confident regarding S.florida is the fact the ECM on its 00z run also takes it almost the same direction as the GFS.

Looks like the models are back to thier orginal forecasts more or less!

[Scorpion]

GFDL shows a Cat 2 or 3 into SW FL

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12Z Euro should start any minute now. Can somebody please help us out and post the run as it updates?

[bella_may]

12Z GFS 90 hours, deepening system headed towards FL straits / South Florida. Big weakness right over the Florida peninsula, its going to hit it you would think:

Is that more west than the previous gfs run? Just looks like it to me but I'm probably wrong LOL

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL 120 hours, approaching South Florida as a powerful system:

[brunota2003]

That is actually the 12Z run of the GFDL.

[KWT]

GFDL shows a Cat 2 or 3 into SW FL

Looks too far west to me still and given its been constantly too far south in the last 24-36hrs, that sorta backs up the idea that the GFDL is probably too far south and west.

[ronjon]

12z GFDL almost the same position as 06z run - just off the SW coast of FL.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/12zgfdl2500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html

[gatorcane]

GFDL shows a Cat 2 or 3 into SW FL

Looks too far west to me still and given its been constantly too far south in the last 24-36hrs, that sorta backs up the idea that the GFDL is probably too far south and west.

I say it is an outlier...but remember IKE. GFDL nailed that track when all the other models were wrong. GFDL got the upper-air pattern correct and called for a path South of Florida through Cuba...

Though I can point out many times the global models were right and the GFDL was wrong. Still the GFDL is the second-best performing model over the past 3 years only behind the ECMWF.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL hits every mountain in the Caribbean!

[KWT]

12z ECM running, heading into DR at 24hrs, motion is about 280-285.

[Ivanhater]

Through 60 hours...12z Euro is north of the 00z position..north of Hispaniola

[chris_fit]

12z ECM running, heading into DR at 24hrs, motion is about 280-285.

Can you provide a link where you get the results coming in?

[NDG]

At 72 hrs the euro has Irene in the eastern tip of Cuba.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[KWT]

Strengthening storm at 48hrs:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

My gut for thiso ne, a SC hit...we'll see how this goes!

[gatorcane]

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