ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

It almost seems like Erika's "center" is purposely trying to maneuver around the islands without making landfall.

thats what I was explaining on the previous page

That happens a lot with Typhoons on the northern tip of Taiwan

[ROCK]

IVAN did that hop skip and a jump around Jamiaca if I recall....that was interesting...

[tropicwatch]

East of the southern tip of DR?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[ROCK]

East of the southern tip of DR?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

thats what I have been looking at

[BucMan2]

quick question what does HH mean?

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is also some mid level spin crossing the DR speed up the loop here you can see it better

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

quick question what does HH mean?

hurricane hunters

[Bluespider]

quick question what does HH mean?

Hurricane Hunter

[Hammy]

I don't think it's closed any longer. Hispaniola seems to have similar wind flow around it that Hawaii does, in that it can do strange things with the wind direction (not the swirl SW of Haiti). It seems like the flow off the mountains combined with the winds coming around the southern tip may have disrupted the circulation enough to open it.

[AutoPenalti]

quick question what does HH mean?

Hurricane Hunters

[northjaxpro]

'uote="Bluespider"]so is she officially dead?[/quote]

No. People it is way too soon to start mentioning or referring to Bones and making declarations that this system is dead. It is rather premature to do this when right now we have many people who are on the forum monitoring and learning about these tropical cyclones. Also, we should remain vigilant just out of respect to the folks in Dominica, who are suffering heavily due to severe flooding in Erika's wake. People lost their lives on that island. Also, even if Erika fizzles, there is still a very good potential that the Florida peninsula over the next week could get serious rainfall and wr know there are areas in the state that don't need it.

[JPmia]

yeah I wouldn't bring Bones in until tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Here's an ASCAT from 15Z. Wave axis indicated. I don't think ASCAT would be able to resolve the 2-3 micro centers that recon found at 5000 ft. I think it's pretty clear that Erika lacks any well-defined LLC at this point. It will track west of the NHC's last forecast and into the eastern Gulf after crossing the DR and Cuba. Might be able to regenerate into a sheared TD/TS there before moving inland into northern Florida.

[Alyono]

very near the Barahona Peninsula

[wxman57]

yeah I wouldn't bring Bones in until tomorrow morning.

Bones won't make an appearance until possibly next Monday or Tuesday. He thinks whatever is left of Erika will be in the eastern Gulf as a disturbance around then.

[hiflyer]

Erika's main body appears to be south and west of most models as that passes farther south of the DR. quite a bit of terrain between where the main body is and where most models said it would be. Folks in sofla have been dumping their patio furniture into the pool for several days....

[floridasun78]

i think it tropical wave twc still hypying system now tropical wave showing people at publix and gov say people need get ready for tropical wave ((The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.))

[rolltide]

Maybe just me but it seems as though the shear is letting up a bit. If it clears Haiti it may have a chance. Most likely an open wave at this point with the wave axis just south of the DR Haiti border.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormcenter]

I think Erika has more than just chance to do something if and when she makes it into the Gulf. IMO

[Weatherboy1]

I wouldn't be surprised if Erika is maintained at least until 11 p.m. to give it a few more hours to see if a circulation center reforms north of Hispanola, or if something pops out over the west end by then. Otherwise, you have to cancel all these watches and warnings ... and then just re-issue them if something does in fact emerge out over the water. But if nothing does by 11, maybe then Erika finally gets spiked.

Just my opinion, listen to the experts, etc.