ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

It's certainly trying. CDO just needs to expand to the NW/W quads.

[Blinhart]

Also they have already closed and are evacuating platforms in the GoM.

[tolakram]

Please be careful posting information from unknown sources, there's going to be some false information floating around. Official sources, including trusted or official twitter accounts are ok.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm... posts are disappearing lol

[hd44]

It's certainly trying. CDO just needs to expand to the NW/W quads.

Intensifying and quick... would like to see a solid red band expand around the eye... and it is trying as we speak.

[tolakram]

All day loop of Harvey from SLIDER ... if you can get it to load correctly.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4417&y=5887&z=3&im=60&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Hurrilurker]

As often happens, the flooding could be the far bigger disaster than the winds and storm surge.

Get that Stevie Ray Vaughn Texas Flood album ready.

Well there's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
Well there's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
And I've been tryin' to call my baby
Lord and I can't get a single sound

Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Yeah flood water keep a rollin'
Man it's about to drive poor me insane

Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well back home are no floods or tornados
Baby and the sun shines every day

[GCANE]

I would say its about an 80% chance that is a pinhole eye.

Very likely it went from really bad to really, really bad.

[AubreyStorm]

[quote="Kingarabian"]SW/S/SE quads still irritating me:

Hi!

Why?

[Cunxi Huang]

The central pressure might have down to 970 mb or even lower. Let's wait for the next 23z recon data.

[Kingarabian]

The central pressure might have down to 970 mb or even lower. Let's wait for the next 23z recon data.

[img]https://s2.postimg.org/9nfaht46h/LATEST.jpg[/mg]
[img]https://s2.postimg.org/o7wdcmz53/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20170824221355.gif[/mg]

Almost a WMG, but it's not smooth. If so, it would be in the 960's.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, Recon will likely find on first pass around 90 to 95 mph. 6 hours later at end of mission following current trends.. pushing a major hurricane 110 maybe.

[hipshot]

Please be careful posting information from unknown sources, there's going to be some false information floating around. Official sources, including trusted or official twitter accounts are ok.

Hope that wasn't one of mine but that source is usually very reliable. Hope it was "fake news" in a way because it was pretty spooky.

[KWT]

Its making a real good fist of wrapping the eye with an intense band of convection in the eyewall, still not quite there but I really think its not far off and the push into the early overnight hours will probably be the shove it needs.

The eye does look more defined in the last hour though whatever happens.

[Blinhart]

Well, Recon will likely find on first pass around 90 to 95 mph. 6 hours later at end of mission following current trends.. pushing a major hurricane 110 maybe.

I wouldn't be surprised by the 7pm advisory we have a storm around 100 to 105 mph, and by the 1am advisory we will have have a major around 125 mph. I can see this making it up to 150 mph before landfall.

[hd44]

I say if trends persist we could wake up to a cat 4 Charlie type storm. I saw the latest gfs weakens it a bit near the shore waters... but I doubt it. Though shallow, waters are in the upper 80s.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, Recon will likely find on first pass around 90 to 95 mph. 6 hours later at end of mission following current trends.. pushing a major hurricane 110 maybe.

I wouldn't be surprised by the 7pm advisory we have a storm around 100 to 105 mph, and by the 1am advisory we will have have a major around 125 mph. I can see this making it up to 150 mph before landfall.

Well 125 might be pushing it. but it does have enough time to make it to cat 4.

[jdjaguar]

That dry slot to the SW has a nice chunk of 3500 CAPE air in it.

I gather 3500 CAPE air adds energy to this intensifying storm?

Forgive my naivety, what exactly is CAPE air, if you don't mind my asking?

CAPE is a quantitative measure of how unstable the air is which would fire off a thunderstorm.
About the highest value I have seen is 5000.
CAPE can be high and there can be no thunderstorms if there is no forced lifting of air parcels like low-level convergence.
If there is some sort of forced lifting, then thunderstorms can be very intense if CAPE is on the upper end of the scale.
Tornado chasers look at this very closely and watch cells that move into high CAPE areas.

Here is a link to get started.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convectiv ... ial_energy

Most informative and Much obliged Gcane

[tolakram]

My guess is same intensity or just a bit stronger. It's been fighting some dry air and lost a lot of convection before rebuilding it.

[KWT]

I would say its about an 80% chance that is a pinhole eye.

Very likely it went from really bad to really, really bad.

Its a smal eye, not sure its a pinhole yet though, looking at the Vis. channel it seems to be obscured by those big convective blowups. One of those blowups will hold the whole way round the eye at some point in the next 6hrs IMO and we will see a proper deep eye form from it. Thats when this thing will take off into the 3/4 range.