2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1425591764535156736

[gatorcane]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

Models didn't see squat last year either.

Any possibility the lack of flight data due to less airplanes in the air because of COVID was a contributing factor last year? The models were quite horrendous but last year seemed worse than usual.

[Category5Kaiju]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

Models didn't see squat last year either.

Any possibility the lack of flight data due to less airplanes in the air because of COVID was a contributing factor last year? The models were quite horrendous but last year seemed worse than usual.

Cannot remember exactly where I heard it (it actually may have been Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack who mentioned it in one of his discussion videos that time), but yes I do remember hearing that COVID did likely contribute to less airplanes in the sky taking data for model input.

[WiscoWx02]

Looks like Kevin and Linda may have done a number on SST's in the eastern Pacific, according to this method of SST analysis anyways. If the eastern Pacific and Nino 1+2 areas are truly cooling and assuming they continue to do so for a while, this may help break down the eastern Pacific rising cell. Still think the Atlantic is being capped heavily by the eastern Pacific activity due to a copious amount of TUTT's out there right now though. The convective mardi gras over Africa courtesy of the MJO in phase 2 should lead to less dry air over the Atlantic in theory also but then again I've heard more waves push out more dry air, like we saw last year. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong though.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_west_current.png

Looks like Kevin and Linda may have done a number on SST's in the eastern Pacific, according to this method of SST analysis anyways. If the eastern Pacific and Nino 1+2 areas are truly cooling and assuming they continue to do so for a while, this may help break down the eastern Pacific rising cell. Still think the Atlantic is being capped heavily by the eastern Pacific activity due to a copious amount of TUTT's out there right now though. The convective mardi gras over Africa courtesy of the MJO in phase 2 should lead to less dry air over the Atlantic in theory also but then again I've heard more waves push out more dry air, like we saw last year. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong though.

If I recall correctly, last year's African Easterly Jet was so strong though that that advected a lot of dust from the Sahara continously, and June has a massive outbreak, with this partially to blame for the relative lack if significant MDR activity later in the season. This year's SAL outbreaks are a lot less notable, and imho 2020 was an example of the AEJ that pushes waves out being too strong to be a good thing for development.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_west_current.png

Looks like Kevin and Linda may have done a number on SST's in the eastern Pacific, according to this method of SST analysis anyways. If the eastern Pacific and Nino 1+2 areas are truly cooling and assuming they continue to do so for a while, this may help break down the eastern Pacific rising cell. Still think the Atlantic is being capped heavily by the eastern Pacific activity due to a copious amount of TUTT's out there right now though. The convective mardi gras over Africa courtesy of the MJO in phase 2 should lead to less dry air over the Atlantic in theory also but then again I've heard more waves push out more dry air, like we saw last year. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong though.

If I recall correctly, last year's African Easterly Jet was so strong though that that advected a lot of dust from the Sahara continously, and June has a massive outbreak, with this partially to blame for the relative lack if significant MDR activity later in the season. This year's SAL outbreaks are a lot less notable, and imho 2020 was an example of the AEJ that pushes waves out being too strong to be a good thing for development.

Yeah. Fred running straight into the shredder at the worst angle sort of takes away how much the ATL has woken up. If it were to track north of that, we are looking at a cat 1-2 at least approaching the keys.

When it comes to the MDR, it should crank out some better storms than 2020, and some of those might threaten land if these early storms are any indicator track wise.

[gatorcane]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_sst-trend-7d_v3.1_west_current.png

Looks like Kevin and Linda may have done a number on SST's in the eastern Pacific, according to this method of SST analysis anyways. If the eastern Pacific and Nino 1+2 areas are truly cooling and assuming they continue to do so for a while, this may help break down the eastern Pacific rising cell. Still think the Atlantic is being capped heavily by the eastern Pacific activity due to a copious amount of TUTT's out there right now though. The convective mardi gras over Africa courtesy of the MJO in phase 2 should lead to less dry air over the Atlantic in theory also but then again I've heard more waves push out more dry air, like we saw last year. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong though.

If I recall correctly, last year's African Easterly Jet was so strong though that that advected a lot of dust from the Sahara continously, and June has a massive outbreak, with this partially to blame for the relative lack if significant MDR activity later in the season. This year's SAL outbreaks are a lot less notable, and imho 2020 was an example of the AEJ that pushes waves out being too strong to be a good thing for development.

Yeah. Fred running straight into the shredder at the worst angle sort of takes away how much the ATL has woken up. If it were to track north of that, we are looking at a cat 1-2 at least approaching the keys.

When it comes to the MDR, it should crank out some better storms than 2020, and some of those might threaten land if these early storms are any indicator track wise.

Hispaniola was only part of the problem, strong upper-level winds across the Bahamas would have been another obstacle. Not sure the Atlantic has “woken” up yet. Might take a bit longer. Step 1: EPAC needs to settle down.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If I recall correctly, last year's African Easterly Jet was so strong though that that advected a lot of dust from the Sahara continously, and June has a massive outbreak, with this partially to blame for the relative lack if significant MDR activity later in the season. This year's SAL outbreaks are a lot less notable, and imho 2020 was an example of the AEJ that pushes waves out being too strong to be a good thing for development.

Yeah. Fred running straight into the shredder at the worst angle sort of takes away how much the ATL has woken up. If it were to track north of that, we are looking at a cat 1-2 at least approaching the keys.

When it comes to the MDR, it should crank out some better storms than 2020, and some of those might threaten land if these early storms are any indicator track wise.

Hispaniola was only part of the problem, strong upper-level winds across the Bahamas would have been another obstacle. Not sure the Atlantic has “woken” up yet. Might take a bit longer. Step 1: EPAC needs to settle down.

1) Based on the guidance before the DR, it would have most likely made a run at cat 1 with the expected conditions that were going to be there, and still might before it ends its time in the Gulf.

2) Of course the basin isn't truly 100% of the way there yet. It always takes the final 10 days of the month until it truly wakes up. Plus, the EPAC should most likely slow down after another storm or 2. Everything there is underperforming anyways, and there is not much expected after possibly Marty.

[NDG]

If I recall correctly, last year's African Easterly Jet was so strong though that that advected a lot of dust from the Sahara continously, and June has a massive outbreak, with this partially to blame for the relative lack if significant MDR activity later in the season. This year's SAL outbreaks are a lot less notable, and imho 2020 was an example of the AEJ that pushes waves out being too strong to be a good thing for development.

Yeah. Fred running straight into the shredder at the worst angle sort of takes away how much the ATL has woken up. If it were to track north of that, we are looking at a cat 1-2 at least approaching the keys.

When it comes to the MDR, it should crank out some better storms than 2020, and some of those might threaten land if these early storms are any indicator track wise.

Hispaniola was only part of the problem, strong upper-level winds across the Bahamas would have been another obstacle. Not sure the Atlantic has “woken” up yet. Might take a bit longer. Step 1: EPAC needs to settle down.

EPAC Tropical Activity, which has been below average, is not the problem for the Atlantic MDR, which has been near to above average. We are only in Aug 11th, this will be another late active season become of La Nina resurfacing.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah. Fred running straight into the shredder at the worst angle sort of takes away how much the ATL has woken up. If it were to track north of that, we are looking at a cat 1-2 at least approaching the keys.

When it comes to the MDR, it should crank out some better storms than 2020, and some of those might threaten land if these early storms are any indicator track wise.

Hispaniola was only part of the problem, strong upper-level winds across the Bahamas would have been another obstacle. Not sure the Atlantic has “woken” up yet. Might take a bit longer. Step 1: EPAC needs to settle down.

EPAC Tropical Activity, which has been below average, is not the problem for the Atlantic MDR, which has been near to above average. We are only in Aug 11th, this will be another late active season become of La Nina resurfacing.

https://i.imgur.com/eGIBqiO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/SLNT507.gif

How does this chart make any sense when compared to what's actually occurring?
The EPAC is running almost a month and a half earlier than average. Reminds me of those instability charts that hold no weight.

[NDG]

Hispaniola was only part of the problem, strong upper-level winds across the Bahamas would have been another obstacle. Not sure the Atlantic has “woken” up yet. Might take a bit longer. Step 1: EPAC needs to settle down.

EPAC Tropical Activity, which has been below average, is not the problem for the Atlantic MDR, which has been near to above average. We are only in Aug 11th, this will be another late active season become of La Nina resurfacing.

https://i.imgur.com/eGIBqiO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/SLNT507.gif

How does this chart make any sense when compared to what's actually occurring?
The EPAC is running almost a month and a half earlier than average. Reminds me of those instability charts that hold no weight.

I knew that chart was going to rub some EPAC fans the wrong way
At best ACE has been average, the number of many storms doesn't mean anything which many have not become hurricanes, they have struggled with shear that comes out of no where. This year is clearly not a hyperactive season which seem to be the ones that affect the Atlantic Basin.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC Tropical Activity, which has been below average, is not the problem for the Atlantic MDR, which has been near to above average. We are only in Aug 11th, this will be another late active season become of La Nina resurfacing.

https://i.imgur.com/eGIBqiO.gif
https://i.imgur.com/SLNT507.gif

How does this chart make any sense when compared to what's actually occurring?
The EPAC is running almost a month and a half earlier than average. Reminds me of those instability charts that hold no weight.

I knew that chart was going to rub some EPAC fans the wrong way
At best ACE has been average, the number of many storms doesn't mean anything which many have not become hurricanes, they have struggled with shear that comes out of no where. This year is clearly not a hyperactive season which seem to be the ones that affect the Atlantic Basin.

Nothing to do with being an EPAC follower or not lol. It's more likely than not that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active. But we seen this in prior seasons, the Atlantic doesn't get going until the EPAC peaks. So as Gatorcane has pointed out, we need the EPAC to slow down before the Atlantic can take off, regardless if the storms are sheared or not. Even if it's not a hyperactive season, whenever the EPAC or Atlantic are active, the other is quiet.
viewtopic.php?p=2918467

[NDG]

How does this chart make any sense when compared to what's actually occurring?
The EPAC is running almost a month and a half earlier than average. Reminds me of those instability charts that hold no weight.

I knew that chart was going to rub some EPAC fans the wrong way
At best ACE has been average, the number of many storms doesn't mean anything which many have not become hurricanes, they have struggled with shear that comes out of no where. This year is clearly not a hyperactive season which seem to be the ones that affect the Atlantic Basin.

Nothing to do with being an EPAC follower or not lol. It's more likely than not that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active. But we seen this in prior seasons, the Atlantic doesn't get going until the EPAC peaks. So as Gatorcane has pointed out, we need the EPAC to slow down before the Atlantic can take off, regardless if the storms are sheared or not. Even if it's not a hyperactive season, whenever the EPAC or Atlantic are active, the other is quiet.
viewtopic.php?p=2918467

True, it does seem to work that way but not that the outflows of EPAC systems are affecting the western Atlantic currently.

[Woofde]

We've now had Elsa and Fred take a track through the Carribean and up towards Florida. Preliminarily 95L looks to do roughly the same. Do you guys think this will be the predominant style of hurricane track for this year, or is it just a coincidence?

[captainbarbossa19]

The GFS is showing a ridiculous amount of shear towards the end of this month for most of the basin. I am not convinced, and since it and most other models have been hyping the EPAC every run, I am doing this to them.

[EquusStorm]

We're nearing the midpoint of August, so it's time to bring this up again

As a reminder of how fast things can potentially change in the Atlantic with the ridiculously fast uptick in activity we have in this basin as we near peak every year...

Here is the shear map for August 15, 2017

Here is a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017

Two weeks before the costliest and biggest ACE-producing month in Atlantic history began

[Category5Kaiju]

We're nearing the midpoint of August, so it's time to bring this up again

As a reminder of how fast things can potentially change in the Atlantic with the ridiculously fast uptick in activity we have in this basin as we near peak every year...

Here is the shear map for August 15, 2017

Here is a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017

Two weeks before the costliest and biggest ACE-producing month in Atlantic history began

You should also pull up those for 2019 and 2020, which also featured abrupt turns for the worse merely weeks after people began doubting.

[aspen]

We've now had Elsa and Fred take a track through the Carribean and up towards Florida. Preliminarily 95L looks to do roughly the same. Do you guys think this will be the predominant style of hurricane track for this year, or is it just a coincidence?

I think it might be a favored range of tracks due to the strong ridging for ASO, the active wave train, and the lower latitude of AEWs compared to last year. Any waves that develop would be less likely to recurve out into the open Atlantic, and they’ll be at a low enough latitude to pose a problem to the Caribbean and SEUS.

[EquusStorm]

Here's August 19 2019 right before Dorian, and here's August 11 2020, right before Josephine and Kyle, and the dust outbreak got even bigger before and during Marco and Laura. Dunno where to find archived shear maps but I'd bet they would show about the same.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425927832790835212