NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Teban54]

[sbcc]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

The amount of g forces an airframe is rated to handle. Exceed it and parts can start coming off.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Holy cow!!! I cannot believe what I'm waking up to, SUB 900 landfall!!? No way, this is the Atlantic's Haiyan - are we seriously tying 1935, or even beating the 892 mb landfall!?

Melissa might just be the mother of all landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, prayers for Jamaica!!

I’m kinda disappointed Melissa got stronger than Labor Day as Labor Day is one of my main hurricane characters.

Especially given it’s kind of in poor taste to have a recent hurricane with survivors in living memory as a protagonist.

(Humor=tragedy+time and all that)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

Surely that dropsonde captured a gust and doesn't represent 1-minute sustained winds.

[Fancy1002]

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

[GCANE]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

g-force.
Apparent force one feels in the plane.
g=1 is normal downward gravity.
g=2 is twice the force of gravity.
g= -1 is standing on your head.
etc

[PavelGaborik10]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

They won't though.

[Snoopie]

Over 700' drop in elevation in a few seconds in recon.
Momentarily weightless and breakfast less.

Heading back to the barn due to exceeding g-limit

What’s g limit?

When an aircraft has to making abrupt maneuvers they put extra forces on the aircraft measured in Gs. 1 g is just standard earth gravity. So must people are always experiencing 1g. Fighter jets can pull up to 8ish g's but they're specially designed for it. Most passenger aircraft experience maybe 1.2, 1.3 g's.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

It is a measure of force, relative to earth's gravity. You are currently experiencing 1 g of force due to gravity. If you are accelerating upwards at 9.8 m/s^2 you are experiencing 2 g. The plane's structural components are rated for +3.0 and -2.0 Gs. The squishy humans inside may have lesser tolerances.

[USTropics]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

Surely that dropsonde captured a gust and doesn't represent 1-minute sustained winds.

That 219kt was instantaneous and aloft. If you consider the entire vertical measurements though (gusts would be smoothed out), what CrazyC83 is stating is justifiable. It was a southern quadrant drop too, which is where the strongest winds have been this morning.

[Beef Stew]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

I could see 165; what's your line of thought for sustained 175?

(P.S.- I say that not intending to sound critical, but out of curiosity and as someone who really appreciates all your insight!)

[InfernoFlameCat]

What’s g limit?

2.5Gs

Not what’s the G limit, what is G limit, the term?

He is referring to G force. Gravity force. 2.5x gravity is like the gravity on jupiter’s surface. Too damaging to fly in

[CrazyC83]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

I could see 165; what's your line of thought for sustained 175?

(P.S.- I say that not intending to sound critical, but out of curiosity and as someone who really appreciates all your insight!)

That 172 dropsonde seems legit with the other data and satellite signature.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

[cheezyWXguy]

Unbelievable drop in the S eyewall — 172 kt at the surface and increasing to 203 kt (!!!) at 916mb and 219 kt (!!!) at 906mb. Could 170 kt be justifiable with this?

Honestly I think it’s conceivable that an upgrade to at least 165kt could be in the cards for post season analysis. Although SFMRs are unreliable, I imagine that the ample amount of FL and dropsonde sampling could provide sufficient data between the surface and aloft to make sense of all those 170kt+ readings. I think Derek Ortt was right when he talked about conversion factors being much closer to 1 than normal for this storm.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983181787473031335

[NotoSans]

Based on that dropsonde, I would go with 175 kt for the intensity.

I could see 165; what's your line of thought for sustained 175?

(P.S.- I say that not intending to sound critical, but out of curiosity and as someone who really appreciates all your insight!)

That 172 dropsonde seems legit with the other data and satellite signature.

The surface splash is still considered gust and cannot be used directly for intensity estimate. WL150 converts to 158kt which is in line with flight-level data. KZC PWR also suggests somewhere between 160kt and 165kt.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Incredible how powerful this will be for SW Jamaica.

Does anyone have any webcams or storm chasers who are trying to post live in the core of the storm as it approaches?

It seems many have already gone down. Cell failure of one carrier has taken down a few.

[weeniepatrol]

TDR shows cat 5 winds at 34000 feet