Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER WATERS BEFORE
SUNSET.

A MORE STABLE UPPER LEVEL AND A SLOW DECREASE ON MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN ON THURSDAY...GENERATING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE CAP LIMITING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 23/2200Z.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST
LOCAL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 23/2300Z...BUT PASSING SHRA
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CEILING.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN EAST COAST OF U.S. AND
GENERATE A FETCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SWELLS
COULD BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BAND OF DRY
AIR AND DUST HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW HOWEVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
20W-25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
W AT 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 43W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 46W-49W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
812 PM AST WED SEP 23 2009

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICS SHOW U/L LOW FORMING NICELY WELL NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROUGHING DIGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW ATLC...A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE MID LAYERS...AND HELP TO SLOW
THE INTENSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...COUNTERING THAT WILL BE VERY WEAK SELY FLOW IN THE LOW
LAYERS...AND CONTINUED AMPLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

[abajan]

I don’t know if it’s been mentioned before but Barbados has been experiencing very hot weather recently. It’s not so much the actual temperature as the apparent temperature (which takes humidity and wind speeds into account) that’s the problem. Several times over the last few days it has felt like 100 degrees Fahrenheit!

[cycloneye]

I don’t know if it’s been mentioned before but Barbados has been experiencing very hot weather recently. It’s not so much the actual temperature as the apparent temperature (which takes humidity and wind speeds into account) that’s the problem. Several times over the last few days it has felt like 100 degrees Fahrenheit!

It may have to do with the trade winds being less strong.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST THU SEP 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER TREND HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA TODAY...WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS...LIMITING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTERWARD...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A 0754 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LOW CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12N27W WITH THE WAVE AXIS TILTS
NE TO SW THROUGH THE LOW CENTER. THE WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
RELOCATED ON THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THIS
NEW DATA. A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM TO
THE N AND WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DUST...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 20W-29W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1245 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

PRZ001-241930-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
1245 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

.NOW...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SAN JUAN...GUAYNABO...AND BAYAMON AT LEAST
UNTIL 3:30 PM AST. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATERS IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS... AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

$$

CASTRO

[cycloneye]

722
ABNT20 KNHC 241740
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR...CORRECTION
209 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

PRC005-011-071-081-099-115-131-141-242100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0303.090924T1809Z-090924T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-
AGUADILLA PR-LARES PR-ANASCO PR-
209 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADILLA...LARES AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 204 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AFFECTED
AREA...RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. AT LEAST THROUGH 500 PM
AST...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THESE AREAS
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DUE TO SATURATED SOILS...
MUDSLIDES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...MAINLY OVER
UTUADO...LARES...AND SAN SEBASTIAN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO GRADUALLY NOSE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NEVER REALLY MAKE IT UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DESPITE SOMEWHAT OF AN
"OVERALL DRIER TREND"...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOCALLY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS INTENSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WORK ON TYPICAL SEPTEMBER...LOW
TO MID 70S...AND IN SOME CASES UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS...THIS NEW RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE IS DESTINED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC023-067-093-097-121-125-250000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0047.090924T2106Z-090925T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS
MARICAO
SABANA GRANDE
SAN GERMAN
CABO ROJO
MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 502 PM AST...A U.S.G.S. RIVER GAGE SENSOR ALONG THE RIO ROSARIO
NEAR HORMIGUEROS WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE...AND EXPECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BEFORE 530 PM AST. EXPECT RAPID RISES IN THE
RIO ROSARIO AND RIO GUANAJIBO...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING...AS
THIS WATER WORKS ITS WAY TO THE OCEAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION...MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ALREADY VERY SATURATED
SOILS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 242121
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATED AT THE CHARLOTTE AMALIE AIRPORT ON SAINT THOMAS...WITH
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. THE WINDS WERE GENERALLY
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY.

FOR THIS EVENING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PASS BY FROM TIME TO
TIME ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWS 80S. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH OR LESS. EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TOMORROW...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE ISLANDS...AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS...THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST THU SEP 24 2009

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO BUT SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE IN
YABUCOA...MAUNABO AND NAGUABO. MOST OF THESE ARE MOVING ONSHORE
FROM THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF VIEQUES...WHICH IS SEEING NO
ACTIVITY AT THE MOMENT. HAVE REVISED FORECAST POPS UPWARD FOR THE
INTERIOR WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS AND AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SAN JUAN AND SURROUNDING
MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS
MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND THE TUTT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM HAITI TO
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.

AS MENTIONED BELOW...WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WILL
STILL BE SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS SMALL MUDSLIDES THAT WILL POSE
CONSIDERABLE HAZARD TO VERY LOCALIZED AREAS AND THESE CONDITIONS
MAY WORSEN AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

[abajan]

I don’t know if it’s been mentioned before but Barbados has been experiencing very hot weather recently. It’s not so much the actual temperature as the apparent temperature (which takes humidity and wind speeds into account) that’s the problem. Several times over the last few days it has felt like 100 degrees Fahrenheit!

It may have to do with the trade winds being less strong.

Well, we had yet another hot one today with the heat index reaching 39 degrees Celsius at the airport at noon. (By 2.00 pm it was probably over 40 and I’m sure parts along the northwestern coast had it even hotter.)

Thankfully, we’ve started getting a few showers from an approaching TW. I even saw a bit of lightning way off to the east-southeast earlier tonight.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY UPPER TUTT...EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N 67W. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY.

THE ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A 500 MILLIBARS CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THEN INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 59 WEST...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUED
TO PUSH ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF WAVE AXIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE SLOWLY BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO AID IN INHIBITING ANY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES...THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH MOST AF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS EXPECT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BASED ON LATED GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE FAIRLY MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DUE TO LOCAL AREA BEING IN RIGHT REAR QUAD/DIVERGENT
SIDE OF 35 TO 40 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET MAX...WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING
THAT TIME. A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

[Gustywind]

Disturbed area in the eastern Atlantic
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 25, 2009 5:01 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

In the eastern tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands was producing shower and thunderstorm activity.

As it continues to move west-northwest over the next few days, some development is possible. For now, it is no threat to any land.

To date, this is the quietest the tropical Atlantic has been since 1997.