ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Ike is going to be a Fl. panhandle issue if this trend continues.

[Sabanic]

We'll see many variations of that pic for the next few days.

[Ivanhater]

That map is not updated yet, but nice visual to see the change in the angle of approach now according to the 18z runs...00z and 12z show a steady wnw motion, now 18z starting to sniff out the trough and showing a NNW/N/NE angle of approach...7 days out so plenty of time to watch and not stress so much over every run

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[caneman]

Indeed 7 days is a long time. What a 1,000 miles + error possibility?Watch the cluster. Not just one model. Shoot the gap between the best ones is prolly the best bet. Even then that will change in a couple of days.

[N2FSU]

Nice site here that allows you to turn on model track overlays over a map of the forecast path (on right side of screen):

http://www.stormpulse.com/

You can also click on a city name and it will show the distance from Ike to that city, and you can click on each model to see the name of it.

[dwg71]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Its sw to central la landfall.. Its moving due north at the end and appears to be rehooking. Its east of tx by about 75 miles or so.

[superfly]

Terrible initialization by HWRF...896 mb, really guys?

[caneman]

Another thing to consider and reason to not get worked up is land interaction. Neither Gustav or Hannah recovered after their trek over land. Safe bet and odds would be against this becoming a major again. IMHO. Not a professional just a long time observer.

[Air Force Met]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

Models are doing no such thing. A couple of models see that...and the NHC and HPC say that ain't so. One of those models is Nogaps...the NO stands for NO. The GFDL is flip flopping and the HWRF is now trending west.

So how do you say the models are agreeing on the trof?

[dwg71]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

Models are doing no such thing. A couple of models see that...and the NHC and HPC say that ain't so. One of those models is Nogaps...the NO stands for NO. The GFDL is flip flopping and the HWRF is now trending west.

So how do you say the models are agreeing on the trof?

I think many models are seeing north turn at the end of their runs. GFS, HWRF, GFDL, to name a few.

[Air Force Met]

Ike is going to be a Fl. panhandle issue if this trend continues.

What trend? The HWRFs which is trending west...and is now 300NM west from the 12z run?

Or the Euro...which was also WAY west?

Based on the EURO, HWRF and UKMET...I could just as easily say this will be a Mexico issue if this trend continues.

Please people...a little sanity. These models will flip and flop.

[BigB0882]

I think we all know what will happen, it is just exactly how it plays out that is going to be key. Timing, strength of troughs, ridges, etc. This one is going to be a fun one to watch and I think it could surprise people if they don't pay a lot of attention. A sudden north/northeast hook just below the LA coast could mean a sudden and surprising landfall if everyone isn't informed.

[Air Force Met]

Models seem to be agreeing on the trough...not a surprise..this is September...

Models are doing no such thing. A couple of models see that...and the NHC and HPC say that ain't so. One of those models is Nogaps...the NO stands for NO. The GFDL is flip flopping and the HWRF is now trending west.

So how do you say the models are agreeing on the trof?

I think many models are seeing north turn at the end of their runs. GFS, HWRF, GFDL, to name a few.

Not because of the trof. Because they round the ridge. The trof is in 48-72 hrs. The end of the runs and the north turns are being shown because of rounding the ridge...not breaking thru the trof.

[Sabanic]

Ike is going to be a Fl. panhandle issue if this trend continues.

What trend? The HWRFs which is trending west...and is now 300NM west from the 12z run?

Or the Euro...which was also WAY west?

Based on the EURO, HWRF and UKMET...I could just as easily say this will be a Mexico issue if this trend continues.

Please people...a little sanity. These models will flip and flop.

Exactly AFM, and to flip and flop they must move from west to east and back again

[cycloneye]

The next set of models will be the 00z runs from the Global Models.For the newbies at Storm2k and for those members who may not know the times that each global model releases the 00z run here they are:

00z GFS at 11:30 PM EDT
00z CMC (Canadian) at 1:00 AM EDT
00z GFDL at 1:30 AM EDT
00z HWRF at 1:30 AM EDT
00z UKMET at 1:30 AM EDT
00z NOGAPS at 2:00 AM EDT
00z EURO at 2:30 AM EDT

[Weatherfreak000]

Edit: I see.

[PTPatrick]

I think the models are right in pulling it west...BUT I still dont think its a Texas/Mexico storm. I am leaning towards a stall and wait to get picked up...probably toward the panhandle. Like I said earlier, I know a trough/front is supposed to hit Denver Wednesday night and as such, it could end up being deep enough to pick Ikey up Thursday into Friday, at which point most models are still sort of crawling it through the GOM. That could be what picks it up ala Rita and brings it into Western LA, but I could see points east catching it from the SW. It just all depends on where he ends up at the time. Lots of things in play that far out and quite frankly, its anybody's best guess, even the models'

[caneman]

Ike is going to be a Fl. panhandle issue if this trend continues.

What trend? The HWRFs which is trending west...and is now 300NM west from the 12z run?

Or the Euro...which was also WAY west?

Based on the EURO, HWRF and UKMET...I could just as easily say this will be a Mexico issue if this trend continues.

Please people...a little sanity. These models will flip and flop.

hmmm,
Good to hear a Met say this about model flip flopping. Further, there isn't just one model that has been coined the be all end all. A consesus of the best usually works. Somewhere in the middle is as good as you can hope for and probably the closest to accuarate and that usually only works inside of 3 days..

[Texashawk]

18z HWRF loop track ends just off the Texas/Louisiana border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Wasn't the HWRF the northern 'outlier' model earlier??