Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

For the deep south and especially the Gulf coast, this event will most likely give us the best chance for snow along the Gulf coast. The cold air for once will not be an issue. The cold air dome will be firmly in place, and in place for a long time.

The models have been showing Gulf lows swinging across at some point during this long cold outbreak. IMO, this is a rare setup that gives the Gulf coast the best chance for snow in quite some time.

[northjaxpro]

You are right Ivanhater. If the GFS and Euro verifies, this extreme upper level pattern set-up for next week looks eerily similar to the December 1989 arctic outbreak. You would have the set-up of an very strong High Pressure ridge building over Alaska, with the polar jet stream diving southward deep into the CONUS. Plus, the southern branch of the jet stream looks to remain active which is bound to bring the moisture and energy needed to generate a winter storm in the Deep South, which is what we saw in 1989.

This is such an extreme and rare pattern set-up coming up next week. For snow lovers along the Gulf Coast and Deep South, you just may very well get a nice treat sometime within the next 7 -10 days.

[Ivanhater]

You are right Ivanhater. If the GFS and Euro verifies, this extreme upper level pattern set-up for next week looks eerily similar to the December 1989 arctic outbreak. You would have the set-up of an very strong High Pressure ridge building over Alaska, with the polar jet stream diving southward deep into the CONUS. Plus, the southern branch of the jet stream looks to remain active which is bound to bring the moisture and energy needed to generate a winter storm in the Deep South, which is what we saw in 1989.

This is such an extreme and rare pattern set-up coming up next week. For snow lovers along the Gulf Coast and Deep South, you just may very well get a nice treat sometime within the next 7 -10 days.

That's the thing about this event, which seems close to 1989 like you said, although I'm not sure about 1989 though, I was only 2 This time we are not dependent on one storm meeting up just in time for a short lived cold snap. It will be much easier to have a storm come across with deep cold air in place for such a long time.

[Ivanhater]

Good news....GFS ensembles on board with a Gulf coast snow storm during this extended cold outbreak. Looking like around January 14th

[Ivanhater]

James

Spann:

NEXT WEEK: Another short wave will keep a chance of light rain going into Monday, and then things get interesting as that nasty 1065 mb high drops southward out of the Yukon region. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see that temperatures this afternoon are as cold as -52 F in the Arctic, and I would expect to see some readings down to -60 F in coming days up there as the Siberian Express loads up for the trip south.

Brutally cold air will flood much of the nation next week, with a hard freeze possible all the way down to the lower Rio Grande Valley of South Texas, where they are talking about the McFarland Signature already (listen to this week’s WeatherBrains for more about this).

It remains to be see how cold it gets here in Alabama, but it is safe to say we will be very cold in the January 12-16 time frame, with potential for single digits lows along the way with sub-freezing highs. It also remains to be seen if we have an overrunning event that would bring the potential for an ice storm here. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the GFS hints at snow for Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, and Gulf Shores around January 13, with nothing up this way. Again, this is all voodoo.

Growers, industries, and utilities need to be prepared for a multiple day stretch of very cold weather next week; we will be much more specific in a few days as the airmass gets closer to us.

http://www.alabamawx.com/

[BigB0882]

I remember last year here in Baton Rouge we had a 2-3 day event in mid/late January where highs were in the 30's and lows got to the teens. Perhaps I just missed it but I don't remember discussion about how it was going to rival 1983 or 1989. Is this airmass going to be colder than last year? Or maybe it is colder overall just not so much here in Baton Rouge? I can't imagine it being much colder than it was last year but wow if it even matches that. Just bring on some snow, please! I had a dream last night that it snowed 4 inches...was I having a premonition?

I did a little digging and in December of 1989 the low in Baton Rouge was 9F! Record low for any date. I seriously doubt this can challenge that but wow if it even gets close.

[Ivanhater]

While waiting on the big cold, I think we forgot this storm..

Snowing in central Mississippi and central Alabama on Monday

[Ntxw]

There looks to be a small nose of warm air in that vicinity above, with 540 thickness a tad further north. Maybe I am wrong, but this has signs of ice storm written all over it for the mid south.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro is again painting a Major snow/ice storm over much of the South east.

[Brent]

12z Euro is again painting a Major snow/ice storm over much of the South east.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/1647 ... pus120.gif

I like that image, and for once it's not out in fantasy land.

[homeycane]

Brent,

I am in Coastal South Carolina but I have a daughter that lives in Birmingham so I am always interested in your posts.

Do you mind telling me where you are in Alabama (general area....you do not have to be specific).

Thanks,

Tommy

[Brent]

Brent,

I am in Coastal South Carolina but I have a daughter that lives in Birmingham so I am always interested in your posts.

Do you mind telling me where you are in Alabama (general area....you do not have to be specific).

Thanks,

Tommy

I'm in East Alabama about midway between Birmingham and Atlanta, GA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-061800-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
145 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING
THE STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[northjaxpro]

The southern branch of the jet stream has definitely become active for now. We are dealing with the first in a potential series of Low pressure areas out of the GOM today with much needed rain falling here in NE FL. The potential winter storm mentioned from the Birmingham WFO for the Sunday - Monday evening period (1/9-1/10/11) appears to be next in line.

If the southern branch of the jet stream remains active into next week, I think it is very plausible to reason that we may yet see another system emerge late next week as well along the Gulf Coast. Looks as if we will have plenty of cold air in place based on the model guidance next week. This potentially could be one of the rarest of set-ups we will have in place for people to see either snow or freezing rain in many areas of the Deep South or possibly even the Gulf Coast by the end of next week.

[Brent]

BMX:

THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM. MODELS SEEM TO
BE COMING TOGETHER...A LITTLE. THE 12Z GFS HAS A GULF LOW AGAIN...
BUT NOW ITS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND THERE
WOULDN`T BE ANY MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. ...THE 12Z EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAS THE MOISTURE...AND HAS THE COLD...AND HAS THE
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE
WAY OF SNOW THAT WE HAVE SEEN. IF THE 12Z EURO TODAY VERIFIED...4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME PART OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY. YES I SAID SNOW. NOW I`M NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO
THAT MUCH SNOW JUST YET...BUT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SAYING...EXPECT TO
SEE SOME TYPE AND SOME AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. SO WILL RUN WITH THIS CONSIDERATION OF RAIN
OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS...AND ADD THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.

IN FACT...NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD CONTINUE TO SEE FLAKES AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE WHITE STUFF.

Good grief!

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Ntxw]

If anyone is interested Euro has snow cover from the coast of Miss/Ala/panhandle of Florida north all the way to TN Valley. Lets keep our fingers crossed for trends!

[BigB0882]

If anyone is interested Euro has snow cover from the coast of Miss/Ala/panhandle of Florida north all the way to TN Valley. Lets keep our fingers crossed for trends!

When is that for? Does it extend back into Louisiana at all or am I just missing out? It is a good trend though, maybe it will find its way to me before as we get closer.

[Ntxw]

If anyone is interested Euro has snow cover from the coast of Miss/Ala/panhandle of Florida north all the way to TN Valley. Lets keep our fingers crossed for trends!

When is that for? Does it extend back into Louisiana at all or am I just missing out? It is a good trend though, maybe it will find its way to me before as we get closer.

Sunday/Monday time frame. EC has the most dense cover across northern Louisiana and MS. Still medium range forecast though. You're on the line I think. Can't get hung up on details like that though at this time.

[Ivanhater]

If anyone is interested Euro has snow cover from the coast of Miss/Ala/panhandle of Florida north all the way to TN Valley. Lets keep our fingers crossed for trends!

Excuse me? Did you say snow and the Florida Panhandle?

[Ntxw]

Hey now! I'm just the messenger, repeating what I see! Don't hold me accountable . Yeah it shows snowcover in Gulf coast including FL panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

Hey now! I'm just the messenger, repeating what I see! Don't hold me accountable . Yeah it shows snowcover in Gulf coast including FL panhandle.

That's why I hate the free version. It didn't look like snow that far south, but I guess it did. I'll take it !