ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[LaBreeze]

What is the GFDL saying?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080608
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 22 20091108
060030 1943N 08500W 8434 01492 0007 +178 +152 208050 051 043 004 00
060100 1942N 08459W 8425 01503 0012 +177 +151 209048 049 043 003 00
060130 1941N 08458W 8430 01503 0020 +171 +149 209044 045 044 003 00
060200 1940N 08457W 8429 01508 0023 +172 +146 212043 043 042 003 00
060230 1939N 08455W 8432 01508 0027 +172 +143 210043 044 042 003 00
060300 1938N 08454W 8427 01514 0031 +170 +141 208043 044 039 004 00
060330 1937N 08453W 8428 01515 0035 +170 +139 210040 041 039 004 00
060400 1936N 08452W 8428 01517 0040 +165 +138 212039 039 039 003 00
060430 1935N 08451W 8429 01520 0041 +168 +135 211039 040 038 003 00
060500 1933N 08450W 8429 01521 0040 +173 +132 213039 039 037 002 00
060530 1932N 08448W 8432 01520 0045 +168 +131 211038 038 036 003 00
060600 1931N 08447W 8428 01526 0046 +170 +131 205037 038 036 004 00
060630 1930N 08446W 8429 01527 0049 +170 +131 206038 040 037 002 00
060700 1929N 08445W 8433 01525 0049 +171 +132 204038 040 037 003 00
060730 1928N 08444W 8426 01531 0052 +168 +132 201034 035 038 004 00
060800 1927N 08443W 8429 01530 0057 +165 +130 204033 034 037 006 00
060830 1926N 08441W 8426 01534 0057 +166 +127 212035 037 037 007 00
060900 1925N 08440W 8432 01532 0065 +158 +123 210035 036 035 007 00
060930 1924N 08439W 8429 01534 0063 +161 +119 206036 037 033 007 00
061000 1923N 08438W 8429 01536 0063 +162 +115 206035 036 030 005 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

What is the GFDL saying?

Cat 2 landfall on the western panhandle.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

What is the GFDL saying?

same thing it has been .. the whole time.. calling for a near major hurricane in the central gulf..

it pretty much nailed it so far from 2 days ago..
same with the hwrf..

[Sanibel]

GFDL picked up this little swerve left and buzz of Cancun but no landfall in Cancun. Then up to Dean4Storm's for a hurricane landfall.

[HURAKAN]

[LaBreeze]

Thanks Aric.

[Evil Jeremy]

New UKMET in, and it really likes the Tampa bay area for a direct hit. No panhandle or gulf coast, just bringing it to Central Florida.

[LaBreeze]

How reliable is UKMET?

[Aric Dunn]

shear still dropping in the gulf..

getting primed for IDA to enter.. lol

12 hours ago


present..




notice the area of 30kts and 20kts retreating..

[BigA]

Does the UKMET have a graphic or a link?

[Blown Away]

Ultimately, I really think Ida is going to shock us with the overall track.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 NOV 2009 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 20:25:52 N Lon : 84:45:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 985.0mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.2 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Center Temp : -69.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[LaBreeze]

Shock us how?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I give this a 90% of hitting category 2 and a 30% chance of getting to category 3 before the
morning- heat content is explosive, shear low; should maintain hurricane intensity
up until close to the coast...similar to hurricane kate...

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080618
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 23 20091108
061030 1922N 08437W 8428 01538 0066 +161 +113 206035 035 029 004 00
061100 1921N 08436W 8429 01539 0065 +162 +113 206034 034 026 003 00
061130 1920N 08434W 8429 01538 0066 +163 +114 207034 034 029 003 00
061200 1918N 08433W 8433 01536 0067 +165 +116 203034 035 032 002 00
061230 1917N 08432W 8430 01539 0069 +161 +117 203036 036 031 002 00
061300 1916N 08431W 8428 01542 0072 +157 +119 204035 036 030 002 00
061330 1915N 08430W 8431 01540 0072 +161 +120 206034 034 030 003 00
061400 1914N 08429W 8428 01542 0070 +162 +121 206036 036 028 002 00
061430 1913N 08427W 8429 01540 0071 +161 +123 205035 037 028 003 00
061500 1912N 08426W 8434 01538 0075 +160 +124 205035 035 028 003 00
061530 1911N 08425W 8429 01545 0074 +160 +124 206036 036 030 000 00
061600 1910N 08424W 8429 01545 0075 +160 +125 205036 036 030 000 00
061630 1909N 08423W 8427 01548 0076 +160 +126 204036 036 030 000 00
061700 1908N 08422W 8431 01545 0075 +164 +126 207035 036 030 000 00
061730 1907N 08420W 8432 01544 0075 +165 +126 209035 035 030 001 00
061800 1906N 08419W 8429 01548 0075 +165 +126 213036 036 031 000 00
061830 1905N 08418W 8430 01548 0075 +165 +127 214035 035 027 002 00
061900 1903N 08417W 8429 01549 0076 +165 +127 212035 035 025 002 00
061930 1902N 08416W 8429 01550 0077 +166 +128 212035 035 025 002 00
062000 1901N 08415W 8430 01548 0078 +165 +129 211033 034 024 002 00
$$
;

[attallaman]

What is the GFDL saying?

Cat 2 landfall on the western panhandle.

Which model is the most reliable and if the storm does make landfall as a CAT 2 into the FL panhandle what kind of weather could I possibly experience here in Biloxi? Lots of rain and some wind or stronger winds and lots of rain?

[Bocadude85]

Ultimately, I really think Ida is going to shock us with the overall track.

shock us how?

[Sanibel]

Can't figure why the eye is deforming like that? Intensification?



http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70