ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

live IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[Patrick99]

Storm activity seems to be coalescing near the relative "center." Seeing our typical nighttime tease, I suppose.

[Frank P]

live IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

In the grand scheme of things, that loop without doubt is the most convection with 99L all day, and the heavy convection from the SE continues to draw closer to the LLC ...

[Michele B]

Hello.

I'm so glad to have found this forum! I only just started reading (with this little Invest) and really love all the input and opinions - even though I don't always understand all the "shortcuts," but I'm learning. Living in FL most of my life, I've always been interested in Hurricanes and their little bro's and sis's.

Well, after all the reading I've done on this storm, I've got an opinion, and I hope this is the place for it....and I hope I don't upset too many people with it!

It seems to me that this Tropical Wave has gotten way too much attention! What I mean by that is this: Folks, it's still just a Tropical Wave! It's not a big, bad, mean storm - YET.

I realize there are prognosticators here who want to be correct in their predictions of strength, intensity, direction, etc., and I can go that way, too! But here's the thing: It's still "just" a Tropical Wave at this point. So in my mind, I think we're being somewhat premature. Maybe we ought to let it get to "Tropical Storm" status before we try to predict what it is forecast to do?

I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a HEALTHY Tropical Wave! I get it. But it IS just a tropical wave, and as such, it's still got a ways to go before it can play with the "big boys."

I hope I haven't just got myself booted out of this forum with my very first post, but this is my opinion. And, btw, I read ALL 117 pages before I posted, so I'm aware of where all of this discussion has been all week!

Thanks for letting me let off steam, y'all.

[stormwise]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

That's basically what the past few EC run have been showing, a storm consolidating in the Florida straits tracking into the GOM and racking the whole Florida western coastline and turning NNE.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Nice turning going on with the system now and high tower trying to pop up near suspected center.

[paintplaye]

Nice turning going on with the system now and high tower trying to pop up near suspected center.

Convection remains east of where the LLC most likely is. Also remains terrain based. Don't see much (if anything) over the LLC still.

[deltadog03]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

Hey deltadog...is your forecast in kts or mph?

MPH, sorry

[TropicalSailor]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

So your saying my flight into Panama City Beach, FL on Thu morning could be a little bumpy?

[robbielyn]

why not a cane once in the gulf?

[gatorcane]

LLC (aka the naked swirl) we have been tracking all day looks to be headed for Cuba.

[Michele B]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.

That's basically what the past few EC run have been showing, a storm consolidating in the Florida straits tracking into the GOM and racking the whole Florida western coastline and turning NNE.

Well, I sure hope THIS doesn't turn out to be the path!

That's where I live.....

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ This is Levi Cowans latest video update on 99L. I think everyone would benefit by watching it. He lays out everything very logically and sensibly so everyone can understand what is going on.

[bamajammer4eva]

Check out my Facebook page below..please come by and like and share it! Here is a new map....lets just say things have changed, as y'all know.
[img]http://i64.tinypic.com/16ljs6w.png

Hey! watch where you point that LOL

Now that they've got the models calmed down with 99L, I guess it could sneak back up from the dead and surprise everybody later on while they are enjoying the weekend.

[tailgater]

A good site for viewing systems close to the USA

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

[Rail Dawg]

Hello.

I'm so glad to have found this forum! I only just started reading (with this little Invest) and really love all the input and opinions - even though I don't always understand all the "shortcuts," but I'm learning. Living in FL most of my life, I've always been interested in Hurricanes and their little bro's and sis's.

Well, after all the reading I've done on this storm, I've got an opinion, and I hope this is the place for it....and I hope I don't upset too many people with it!

It seems to me that this Tropical Wave has gotten way too much attention! What I mean by that is this: Folks, it's still just a Tropical Wave! It's not a big, bad, mean storm - YET.

I realize there are prognosticators here who want to be correct in their predictions of strength, intensity, direction, etc., and I can go that way, too! But here's the thing: It's still "just" a Tropical Wave at this point. So in my mind, I think we're being somewhat premature. Maybe we ought to let it get to "Tropical Storm" status before we try to predict what it is forecast to do?

I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a HEALTHY Tropical Wave! I get it. But it IS just a tropical wave, and as such, it's still got a ways to go before it can play with the "big boys."

I hope I haven't just got myself booted out of this forum with my very first post, but this is my opinion. And, btw, I read ALL 117 pages before I posted, so I'm aware of where all of this discussion has been all week!

Thanks for letting me let off steam, y'all.

Michele you read 117 pages of what we write and you think perhaps we are just wasting time?

There are a 117+ pages for a reason.

I have forecasted hurricanes for over 35 years and STILL study the heck out of Tropical Waves. They are the genesis of what could become a Cat 5 Major Hurricane.

Tropical Waves are VERY interesting to us.

Glad to have you on board though Grasshopper!

[gatorcane]

I am going to say the naked swirl will make landfall in Cuba in 3 to 4 hours. Check it out on this loop. Let's face it folks, outside the GFS, this has been a complete embarrassment and debacle for the other global models and King Euro.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Michele B]

Hello.

I'm so glad to have found this forum! I only just started reading (with this little Invest) and really love all the input and opinions - even though I don't always understand all the "shortcuts," but I'm learning. Living in FL most of my life, I've always been interested in Hurricanes and their little bro's and sis's.

Well, after all the reading I've done on this storm, I've got an opinion, and I hope this is the place for it....and I hope I don't upset too many people with it!

It seems to me that this Tropical Wave has gotten way too much attention! What I mean by that is this: Folks, it's still just a Tropical Wave! It's not a big, bad, mean storm - YET.

I realize there are prognosticators here who want to be correct in their predictions of strength, intensity, direction, etc., and I can go that way, too! But here's the thing: It's still "just" a Tropical Wave at this point. So in my mind, I think we're being somewhat premature. Maybe we ought to let it get to "Tropical Storm" status before we try to predict what it is forecast to do?

I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a HEALTHY Tropical Wave! I get it. But it IS just a tropical wave, and as such, it's still got a ways to go before it can play with the "big boys."

I hope I haven't just got myself booted out of this forum with my very first post, but this is my opinion. And, btw, I read ALL 117 pages before I posted, so I'm aware of where all of this discussion has been all week!

Thanks for letting me let off steam, y'all.

Michele you read 117 pages of what we write and you think perhaps we are just wasting time?

There are a 117+ pages for a reason.

I have forecasted hurricanes for over 35 years and STILL study the heck out of Tropical Waves. They are the genesis of what could be come a Cat 5 Major Hurricane.

Tropical Waves are VERY interesting to us.

Sorry for being so obscure in my posting. I'm pretty sure I didn't say it was a waste of time. I was merely pointing out the obvious frustration many are feeling of not knowing what this future storm may do. I was merely pointing out the obvious fact that as "just" a Tropical Wave," and as such, it was therefore still too early to actually know what type of storm it might become.

Hope that clears it up!

MB

[Bailey1777]

Levi is awesome. His explanation of everything really covers it all. In short quit watching the swirl heading for Cuba. Says to watch the total wave as it will have to start from scratch on development but is still healthy as far as waves go and should not be totally dismissed.

[ROCK]

we agree to disagree... no much into debating models tonight. So exhausting..... but really nothing was supposed to happen until the GOM anyway...