ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

The models showing some Harvey like rain totals is very scary. It's going to be an interesting couple of days.

[dukeblue219]

I would suggest folks listen to their local emergency management personnel on timing for evacuation. Honestly, I think suggesting people wait until Thursday -- the day of landfall -- to evacuate the NC coast is a very dangerous message to post publicly....

[SconnieCane]

Every time I refresh the RBTOP floater loop, the deep convection has wrapped around more of the eye.

Looks like there may still be a fragment of the old inner eyewall hanging around on the north side, which may be the cause of the weakness there mentioned earlier. It's still closed, just not as robust as the southern/southeastern quadrant ATTM.

[GCANE]

Hard to tell, but maybe some wild ass mesovorts in the eye / eyewall.

[plasticup]

Hard to tell, but maybe some wild ass mesovorts in the eye / eyewall.

Do you have any high resolution stills/loops? I remember the mesovorts is those 2015 (Wilma, Rita, etc) storms were incredible.

[sbcc]

Hard to tell, but maybe some wild ass mesovorts in the eye / eyewall.

Looks really turbulent. Gotta be a bumpy ride, especially coming in from the N, going by what we can see.

[eastcoastFL]

[rwfromkansas]

I hope people listen to the warnings.... it's easy to dismiss when you have had previous storms that come in weaker than expected, but this is the real deal. I hope people are listening.

[artist]

I hope people listen to the warnings.... it's easy to dismiss when you have had previous storms that come in weaker than expected, but this is the real deal. I hope people are listening.

And if she stalls, some areas could see up to 40” of rain.

[dukeblue219]

Hard to tell, but maybe some wild ass mesovorts in the eye / eyewall.

Do you have any high resolution stills/loops? I remember the mesovorts is those 2015 (Wilma, Rita, etc) storms were incredible.

It's been light long enough now to get some good vis loops from the rapid-refresh GOES-16 floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[eastcoastFL]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

[supercane4867]

Florence is currently crossing an area of high OHC. Expecct more strengthening today

[1900hurricane]

I wonder why recon went so far away from the center before returning. I almost thought they were leaving the storm. Perhaps for a dropsonde on the periphery of the circulation?

*EDIT: I guess they are actually leaving after just one pass...

[edu2703]

11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 26.7°N 65.3°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[derpbynature]

Is there still a way to get 1-minute satellite imagery? On the RAMMB/CIRA site I can only get 15-minute intervals of GOES-16 imagery. Do they not do the super-rapid-scan thing anymore?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is there still a way to get 1-minute satellite imagery? On the RAMMB/CIRA site I can only get 15-minute intervals of GOES-16 imagery. Do they not do the super-rapid-scan thing anymore?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

College of DuPage, my friend. 30-sec hires imagery. Perhaps my greatest love in life.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Overall, she still looks very lopsided, time will tell if that will change. I don't know if I see her getting as strong as 150, but the NHC are the experts, so...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[supercane4867]

Overall, she still looks very lopsided, time will tell if that will change. I don't know if I see her getting as strong as 150, but the NHC are the experts, so...

She has about 48hrs of zero shear environment to work with. More than enough to mixed out any issues in the circulation

[psyclone]

Wow she is really progged to hit the brakes near and just after landfall...implying an epic rain dump. I notice the northward ticks in the track have halted for now as well. I think just about every landfall point depicted has been in that onslow bay zone thus far.