ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Bocadude85]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

[Aric Dunn]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

With a wsw turn at the end. As it bombs out to a cat 4 borderline 5

[blp]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

Also shows the SW dip as well I think for the first time.

[Bocadude85]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

With a wsw turn at the end. As it bombs out to a cat 4 borderline 5

Yup, we can add the HMON to the list of models showing a wsw track into Florida

[KWT]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

With a wsw turn at the end. As it bombs out to a cat 4 borderline 5

Yep it bends down WSW at the end as you say, not that dissimilar to the ICON either.

[Emmett_Brown]

More 0Z Euro ensemble members showing a recurve before hitting the SE coast than yesterday. All of them are slower members; the ridge has time to break down: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... 0829074143

[jlauderdal]

6z HMON making landfall in Palm Beach, quite a south shift from the 0z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082906&fh=84

With a wsw turn at the end. As it bombs out to a cat 4 borderline 5

Yup, we can add the HMON to the list of models showing a wsw track into Florida

hmon says ya mon to sofla...something is up with these slow downs, the slower it is the more opportunity to stay off the coast

[Blown Away]

06z ICON... Bend to WSW at end of run... Hmmm

[Nimbus]

It's a matter of timing between the ECMWF and GFS model on how quickly the ridge begins to retrograde back east and to what extent it extends westward. You can see this even 72 hours from now. The GFS moves it out earlier, which allows Dorian to round the periphery of the ridge a bit quicker than the ECMWF:
https://i.ibb.co/WGg5sBk/Webp-net-gifmaker-6.gif

Both models show a collapse in steering currents and a break in the ridge for this to turn north. There's a reason such a huge spread in the ECMWF ensembles exist from 12z to 00z, how quickly the ridge retreats and how far west Dorian gets will determine when Dorian moves north. You can see this in the ECMWF ensembles, here is an image of them just out to 120 hours:

https://i.ibb.co/hfrsFpn/ECMWF-120.jpg

Now add another 48 hours to those ensemble members, and the ones that have reached the GOM at 120 hours turn north towards panhandle, the ones off the Florida coast turn north to a recurve, and the one's over Florida move north up the spine:

https://i.ibb.co/cXnw0Wz/ECMWF-168.jpg

The UKMET ensembles show a very similar evolution:
https://i.imgur.com/VqAj4Ee.jpg

Great illustrations and analysis USTropics on the complex steering challenges in the forecast track of Dorian. This is going to drive me insane trying to see how it shakes down this weekend.

06z HWRF did make landfall north of 28 so that will help balance the HMON and Navgem solutions. I don't see any other new trends this morning that would call for any major modifications to the official forecast.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1167021108090089473

[Emmett_Brown]

Has anyone seen any 6Z Euro info?

[dizzyfish]

Thank you all for the info! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 1800z.html

[chaser1]

Given the setup i just dont see it getting that far north before turning westerly. I have a feeling we are going to see an even more gradual left turn before turning dew west. Which would bring it a little more south.

Yeah, Aric I was thinking the same thing. Starting with just a hint more of a forward track (5 degrees or so) more to the left currently, and then a further westward bend as Dorian becomes that much more trapped under the influence of the building ridge.... and feeling that much less influence from a departing Erin. This may suggest a bit of a quicker WNW forward speed to evolve in the nearer term. Then as models are suggesting this a.m., a slower approach as it nears the Florida coastline. I think NHC will shift the landfall a tad southward at 11:00. Perhaps Vero to Sebastian area.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's a matter of timing between the ECMWF and GFS model on how quickly the ridge begins to retrograde back east and to what extent it extends westward. You can see this even 72 hours from now. The GFS moves it out earlier, which allows Dorian to round the periphery of the ridge a bit quicker than the ECMWF:
https://i.ibb.co/WGg5sBk/Webp-net-gifmaker-6.gif

Both models show a collapse in steering currents and a break in the ridge for this to turn north. There's a reason such a huge spread in the ECMWF ensembles exist from 12z to 00z, how quickly the ridge retreats and how far west Dorian gets will determine when Dorian moves north. You can see this in the ECMWF ensembles, here is an image of them just out to 120 hours:

https://i.ibb.co/hfrsFpn/ECMWF-120.jpg

Now add another 48 hours to those ensemble members, and the ones that have reached the GOM at 120 hours turn north towards panhandle, the ones off the Florida coast turn north to a recurve, and the one's over Florida move north up the spine:

https://i.ibb.co/cXnw0Wz/ECMWF-168.jpg

The UKMET ensembles show a very similar evolution:
https://i.imgur.com/VqAj4Ee.jpg

Great illustrations and analysis USTropics on the complex steering challenges in the forecast track of Dorian. This is going to drive me insane trying to see how it shakes down this weekend.

06z HWRF did make landfall north of 28 so that will help balance the HMON and Navgem solutions. I don't see any other new trends this morning that would call for any major modifications to the official forecast.

If it makes it to the FL coast and don't pull a Floyd it's 1000 times more likely to pull a HMON into PBC vs HWRF based on climo.

[gatorcane]

06Z HMON with WSW dive into South Florida nearly over my house in Boca Raton. The WSW dip shown by several of the models is interesting and extremely concerning:

[NDG]

Has anyone seen any 6Z Euro info?

It starts coming out in 20 minutes.

[SFLcane]

That’s quite the shift with the HMON...as others have stated the wsw dip is interesting.

[chaser1]

Have to admit that the 0Z Euro ensemble tracks suggesting the possibility of a more northward recurve just prior to or near landfall, is an interesting fly in the ointment. Curious how much later in time those particular member have this occur given some other model support showing the contrary - a short term dip toward the WSW. Timing is everything..... timing is everything.... timing is everything

[CDO62]

More 0Z Euro ensemble members showing a recurve before hitting the SE coast than yesterday. All of them are slower members; the ridge has time to break down: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... 0829074143

Lets hope this slowdown and recurve shown by some ensemble members becomes a trend the other models start picking up on.

[toad strangler]

Have to admit that the 0Z Euro ensemble tracks suggesting the possibility of a more northward recurve just prior to or near landfall, is an interesting fly in the ointment. Curious how much later in time those particular member have this occur given some other model support showing the contrary - a short term dip toward the WSW. Timing is everything..... timing is everything.... timing is everything

Well looking back to last nights 18z Euro ensembles and then the 0z suite it's quite possible 12z boots Dorian N and possible recurve before landfall. Trend?