Texas Winter 2024-2025

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2461 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:42 pm

Throckmorton wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):

33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)

This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.


Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.


For comparison purposes, the ice totaled "just" 0.60 inches in February 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry. Less at the airport.


Yeah that would definitely be a severe localized event but I personally think we're more likely to see a mix of sleet or snow out of this and less ice if ICON and CMC solutions materialize (despite what it has now). Just think this will be more convective and upper level driven and surface temps will be borderline so hopefully less of a freezing rain issue this go around but need to watch for sure.
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utpmg
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2462 Postby utpmg » Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:51 pm

A couple things that may mitigate ice storm issues here; most big trees like mine no longer have the ability to drop a ton of huge limbs because of the generational storm in 2023. (My American Elms are about 70 years old and never went through anything like it before.) Several folks I know like my next door neighbor just decided to spend the money to remove their trees instead of try to nurse them back to health. And COA has been going through an aggressive if inconsistent program of utility line clearing--I have personal experience of this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2463 Postby Throckmorton » Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:53 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.


For comparison purposes, the ice totaled "just" 0.60 inches in February 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry. Less at the airport.


Yeah that would definitely be a severe localized event but I personally think we're more likely to see a mix of sleet or snow out of this and less ice if ICON and CMC solutions materialize (despite what it has now). Just think this will be more convective and upper level driven and surface temps will be borderline so hopefully less of a freezing rain issue this go around but need to watch for sure.


The Feb. 2023 event happened with surface temperatures of 29–32°. Was just drizzle and mist at first and then a light rain. The precip moved SW to NE, and the power outages mapped moved in lock step.

ICON 18Z is now all snow for Wednesday through Thursday at noon, with no above freezing temps aloft. That's good news.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2464 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:57 pm

Throckmorton wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Throckmorton wrote:
For comparison purposes, the ice totaled "just" 0.60 inches in February 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry. Less at the airport.


Yeah that would definitely be a severe localized event but I personally think we're more likely to see a mix of sleet or snow out of this and less ice if ICON and CMC solutions materialize (despite what it has now). Just think this will be more convective and upper level driven and surface temps will be borderline so hopefully less of a freezing rain issue this go around but need to watch for sure.


The Feb. 2023 event happened with surface temperatures of 29–32°. Was just drizzle and mist at first and then a light rain. The precip moved SW to NE, and the power outages mapped moved in lock step.

ICON 18Z is now all snow for Wednesday through Thursday at noon, with no above freezing temps aloft. That's good news.


Yeah no I read you, but dynamic parameters look to be much different this go around and so think that may save parts of this region from that. North SA/Bexar County got hit hard too back then but not as bad as Austin metro no doubt. ICON definitely has the kind of setup I'm referring to. Think that's more likely of the two. Could still see some fluctuations also as this will largely depend on when/where system ejects out from.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2465 Postby Throckmorton » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:03 pm

utpmg wrote:A couple things that may mitigate ice storm issues here; most big trees like mine no longer have the ability to drop a ton of huge limbs because of the generational storm in 2023. (My American Elms are about 70 years old and never went through anything like it before.) Several folks I know like my next door neighbor just decided to spend the money to remove their trees instead of try to nurse them back to health. And COA has been going through an aggressive if inconsistent program of utility line clearing--I have personal experience of this.


We can only hope. But the big trees that did not drop large limbs under 0.60 inches of ice in Feb. 2023 certainly would under 160% more ice weight with 1.60 inches of ice.

Austin chose once again an incremental tree trimming regime the last couple years instead of what was needed. And Austin Energy has done little to harden its equipment. For example, things that northern utilities do to limit ice accretion on power lines simply are not being done here because AE still believes that major ice storms in Austin are rare. But winter extremes are becoming more common even though the seasonal temperature average is rising. AE can either foot the bill to harden its infrastructurenl or continue to tell customers to "just deal with it."
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2466 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:07 pm

Through hour 102 18z GFS is further south
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2467 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:09 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Through hour 102 18z GFS is further south


Yeah it definitely went more ICON (in terms of further south) however too slow and too warm for snow this run. Dews quickly warm (WAA) and this becomes largely a nothing burger.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2468 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:13 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Through hour 102 18z GFS is further south


Yeah it definitely went more ICON (in terms of further south) however too slow and too warm for snow this run. Dews quickly warm (WAA) and this becomes largely a nothing burger.


Meaning what for DFW?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2469 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:15 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Through hour 102 18z GFS is further south


Yeah it definitely went more ICON (in terms of further south) however too slow and too warm for snow this run. Dews quickly warm (WAA) and this becomes largely a nothing burger.


Meaning what for DFW?


Mostly cold rain up there too on this run with perhaps a brief changeover before precip shuts off. Better accumulations further north you go from DFW. One run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2470 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:16 pm

The GFS is an actual Crap show for almost the entire state, its actually comical how bad this model is at seeing surface cold, ICON is about to put the GFS out of its misery lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2471 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:17 pm

Ah, here we go. Now it’s the shift watch. Hoped we didn’t have to do this. Ugh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2472 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm

Stratton23 wrote:The GFS is an actual Crap show for almost the entire state, its actually comical how bad this model is at seeing surface cold, ICON is about to put the GFS out of its misery lol

I am not sure why the 18z GFS decides to take a nosedive in quality for snow :lol:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2473 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:19 pm

Stratton23 wrote:The GFS is an actual Crap show for almost the entire state, its actually comical how bad this model is at seeing surface cold, ICON is about to put the GFS out of its misery lol


Because this is largely upper level driven and timing will play a critical role in how much this phases (or not) and thus allows for colder air to be pulled in, it's not out of the realm of possibility that it's right. Granted this is still an outlier based on what other models have shown but we continue to see some windshield wiper effect.

We wait for the ensemble though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2474 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:23 pm

Iceresistance because its the GFS, thats what its good at doing, getting your hopes on one run and then absolutely crushing them on the next next run
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2475 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:27 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Iceresistance because its the GFS, thats what its good at doing, getting your hopes on one run and then absolutely crushing them on the next next run


Out of all the models it really has been less bullish for this event. The GEFS has definitely trended better for snow over the last few runs, but by far it's been the most conservative with snow potential for next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2476 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:30 pm

txtwister78 thays true, you kinda have three different opinions on all the ensembles, GEFS not that bullish, EPS more bullish, and the GEPS is very bullish, kinda hard to really know which one is gonna be close to reality lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2477 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:35 pm

This is a complicated 500 mb setup, and the Euro is superior to the GFS in that arena. I'm hugging the Euro.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2478 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:36 pm

One thing I'm noticing right off the bat with 18z GEFS, is an increased signal for Wednesday across Central Texas down into the HC for snow. Mean temps are also several degrees colder compared to the 12z where it sees precip and with dews in the upper teens to low 20's at that time, you can see why it generates more snow across this region.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2479 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:43 pm

GFS trend last 6 runs, less wintry precip for Texas:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2480 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:45 pm

Gatorcane just one model though
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