Throckmorton wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Throckmorton wrote:GEM's catastrophic ice storm forecast for Austin (Jan. 4, 12Z run):
33–26...Thursday (freezing rain; 0.55 inches of ice)
37–24...Friday (freezing rain changing to rain around 3 pm; 0.91 inches of new ice)
40–23...Satuday (morning light snow showers)
This isn't a threat to the ERCOT managed state grid like in February 2021. But that amount of ice would bring down power lines all over the place in Austin. Worse than February 2023, when some were without power 7-9 days.
Yeah CMC is worst case scenario for Austin no doubt and important to distinguish between localized power outages (local utility responsibility) which still could occur in spots as you point out and ERCOT which of course manages the state grid.
For comparison purposes, the ice totaled "just" 0.60 inches in February 2023 at Austin Camp Mabry. Less at the airport.
Yeah that would definitely be a severe localized event but I personally think we're more likely to see a mix of sleet or snow out of this and less ice if ICON and CMC solutions materialize (despite what it has now). Just think this will be more convective and upper level driven and surface temps will be borderline so hopefully less of a freezing rain issue this go around but need to watch for sure.