ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
So 897mb/160kt?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
ElectricStorm wrote:Drop supports 897!
Yep 100% legitimate sub 900mbs. Now the real question is just how low it goes. Given lack of double wind maxima I see no reason reason why it won't get into the 880s now yo be honest, presentation is starting to reach Wilma/Patrica levels.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
bob rulz wrote:Could this have perhaps undergone an eyewall meld like you see sometimes in really powerful hurricanes? That could explain the lack of an EWRC - maybe it just powered through it without losing a beat.
Also, this is what the shoreline of the town of Progreso (northwest of Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula) looks like. Certainly doesn't look like an area that's prepared for a brush with a category 5 hurricane or associated surge, not to mention they're not used to hurricanes in this particular location anyway as they would basically have to come from the west, which is rather unusual.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DQSQDSQCGikqkh5f8
Here's another town, Celestun, currently about to be hit by some intense convection (though likely just outside of the eyewall). I'm assuming this is within the surge zone on the Yucatan Peninsula as well. This road is just 1 block away from the shore.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/YSzJk2BKA96earsN9
Last edited by bob rulz on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. On another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Progreso.
"Also, this is what the shoreline of the town of Progreso (northwest of Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula) looks like. Certainly doesn't look like an area that's prepared for a brush with a category 5 hurricane or associated surge, not to mention they're not used to hurricanes in this particular location anyway as they would basically have to come from the west, which is rather unusual.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DQSQDSQCGikqkh5f8"
"Also, this is what the shoreline of the town of Progreso (northwest of Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula) looks like. Certainly doesn't look like an area that's prepared for a brush with a category 5 hurricane or associated surge, not to mention they're not used to hurricanes in this particular location anyway as they would basically have to come from the west, which is rather unusual.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DQSQDSQCGikqkh5f8"
Last edited by sponger on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
899mb per VDM
URNT12 KWBC 072241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09
URNT12 KWBC 072241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
Ive wanted to witness this since I started tracking after Tomas 2010... following a first SUB 900MB Atlantic Hurricane from start to finish!!! First time in nearly 2 decades this feat has taken to be repeated ... all tropics watchers around the world just witnessed a piece of weather history!
Milton has joined a select and prestigious club! (Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Rita)

Last edited by Stormybajan on Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.
4 NM wide
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.
4 nautical miles according to the VDM. Extremely close to Wilma’s record.
Also the eye seems to be clearing a bit on the latest visible meso floater frames.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
URNT12 KWBC 072241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09Z
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
I expect the SE eyewall to still have the highest winds. Most likely higher than last recon mission.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
Texashawk wrote:One saving grace - he’s a buzz saw, but at least he’s a relatively tiny one ATM.
We still have two and a half whole days for this thing to do lord knows what. :\
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph
Zonacane wrote:sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.
4 NM wide
Wow! I did not know that was even possible.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
Those 188kt / 216mph winds on the dropsonde are only 10mb above surface, maybe 300 feet or so.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
Based on all that data, I'd go with 165 kt for the current intensity.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
It won't stay pinhole mode forever but I can see this going the Goni 2020 route and flex a bigger (albeit still insanely tight) eye before landfall in Florida.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
sponger wrote:Zonacane wrote:sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.
4 NM wide
Wow! I did not know that was even possible.
Wilma’s was 2 miles (1.73nm) wide. Which isn’t too far from where Milton’s is now.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs
The 4 nm eye diameter is crazy!!!!
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