ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2461 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:46 pm

So 897mb/160kt?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2462 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:46 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Drop supports 897!


Yep 100% legitimate sub 900mbs. Now the real question is just how low it goes. Given lack of double wind maxima I see no reason reason why it won't get into the 880s now yo be honest, presentation is starting to reach Wilma/Patrica levels.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2463 Postby bob rulz » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm

bob rulz wrote:Could this have perhaps undergone an eyewall meld like you see sometimes in really powerful hurricanes? That could explain the lack of an EWRC - maybe it just powered through it without losing a beat.

Also, this is what the shoreline of the town of Progreso (northwest of Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula) looks like. Certainly doesn't look like an area that's prepared for a brush with a category 5 hurricane or associated surge, not to mention they're not used to hurricanes in this particular location anyway as they would basically have to come from the west, which is rather unusual.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/DQSQDSQCGikqkh5f8


Here's another town, Celestun, currently about to be hit by some intense convection (though likely just outside of the eyewall). I'm assuming this is within the surge zone on the Yucatan Peninsula as well. This road is just 1 block away from the shore.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/YSzJk2BKA96earsN9
Last edited by bob rulz on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2464 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm

How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. On another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Progreso.


"Also, this is what the shoreline of the town of Progreso (northwest of Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula) looks like. Certainly doesn't look like an area that's prepared for a brush with a category 5 hurricane or associated surge, not to mention they're not used to hurricanes in this particular location anyway as they would basically have to come from the west, which is rather unusual.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/DQSQDSQCGikqkh5f8"
Last edited by sponger on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2465 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm

899mb per VDM

URNT12 KWBC 072241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2466 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:47 pm

Ive wanted to witness this since I started tracking after Tomas 2010... following a first SUB 900MB Atlantic Hurricane from start to finish!!! First time in nearly 2 decades this feat has taken to be repeated ... all tropics watchers around the world just witnessed a piece of weather history! :notworthy: Milton has joined a select and prestigious club! (Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Rita)
Last edited by Stormybajan on Mon Oct 07, 2024 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2467 Postby Zonacane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:48 pm

sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.

4 NM wide
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2468 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:48 pm

sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.

4 nautical miles according to the VDM. Extremely close to Wilma’s record.

Also the eye seems to be clearing a bit on the latest visible meso floater frames.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2469 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:49 pm

URNT12 KWBC 072241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/22:20:04Z
B. 21.86 deg N 090.67 deg W
C. NA
D. 899 mb
E. 220 deg 24 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C4
H. NA
I. NA
J. 160 deg 135 kt
K. 058 deg 4 nm 22:18:51Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 322 deg 161 kt
O. 237 deg 4 nm 22:21:09Z
P. 13 C / 3054 m
Q. 27 C / 3030 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / NA
U. NOAA2 1014A MILTON OB 03
MAX FL WIND 161 KT 237 / 4 NM 22:21:09Z
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2470 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:49 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2471 Postby WaveBreaking » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:49 pm

I expect the SE eyewall to still have the highest winds. Most likely higher than last recon mission.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2472 Postby Exalt » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:50 pm

Texashawk wrote:One saving grace - he’s a buzz saw, but at least he’s a relatively tiny one ATM.


We still have two and a half whole days for this thing to do lord knows what. :\
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2473 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:50 pm

Zonacane wrote:
sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.

4 NM wide


Wow! I did not know that was even possible.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2474 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:50 pm

Those 188kt / 216mph winds on the dropsonde are only 10mb above surface, maybe 300 feet or so.
Last edited by dukeblue219 on Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2475 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:50 pm

Based on all that data, I'd go with 165 kt for the current intensity.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2476 Postby Owasso » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2477 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2478 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm

It won't stay pinhole mode forever but I can see this going the Goni 2020 route and flex a bigger (albeit still insanely tight) eye before landfall in Florida.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2479 Postby WaveBreaking » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm

sponger wrote:
Zonacane wrote:
sponger wrote:How big is the eye now? It has virtually disappeared. In another note, I would really like to try that half pound burger on the beach in Mexico.

4 NM wide


Wow! I did not know that was even possible.


Wilma’s was 2 miles (1.73nm) wide. Which isn’t too far from where Milton’s is now.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph / 899 mbs

#2480 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:51 pm

The 4 nm eye diameter is crazy!!!!
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