ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Nederlander]

What do you think this would mean in the long term? A track into Florida? Or at least a heading towards Louisiana or east of Louisiana?

The fact is we arent really sure yet. Models are starting to come together a little more now with what looks to be a middle to eastern LA hit. That being said, never look at the center line, ALWAYS look at the cone of uncertainty. By looking at that, everyone from texas to the fl panhandle should monitor this and be prepared, not panicked, just prepared. There is an awful lot of gloom and doom with posters on this board. we will have a much better idea once this thing gets close to the gulf. there are way too many variables to try and pinpoint a landfall.. so just chill out a little and be prepared.......

[hurricanefloyd5]

Geez, what a tiny little hurricane. Reminds me of Cyclone Tracy...though Tracy was about half the size of Gustav.

Let's hope it stays small. Unfortunately, GFDL shows it getting quite large in the Gulf:

I need the updated GFDL model for this Hurricane Please

[Stormcenter]

What do you think this would mean in the long term? A track into Florida? Or at least a heading towards Louisiana or east of Louisiana?

The fact is we arent really sure yet. Models are starting to come together a little more now with what looks to be a middle to eastern LA hit. That being said, never look at the center line, ALWAYS look at the cone of uncertainty. By looking at that, everyone from texas to the fl panhandle should monitor this and be prepared, not panicked, just prepared. There is an awful lot of gloom and doom with posters on this board. we will have a much better idea once this thing gets close to the gulf. there are way too many variables to try and pinpoint a landfall.. so just chill out a little and be prepared.......

The voice of reason...thanks.

[lrak]

Just looking at the satellite loop its starting its western movement IMO. Almost looks like it "bounced" off Haiti.

Not sure what you are seeing, its been moving NNW for a few hours now.

looking at the last few frames I'm not sure what you're seeing

[WmE]

Just looking at the satellite loop its starting its western movement IMO. Almost looks like it "bounced" off Haiti.

Not sure what you are seeing, its been moving NNW for a few hours now.

looking at the last few frames I'm not sure what you're seeing

It wouldn't be that surprising. I think hurricanes tend to bounce off Haiti because of its mountains. I could be wrong though.

[cpdaman]

Just looking at the satellite loop its starting its western movement IMO. Almost looks like it "bounced" off Haiti.

Not sure what you are seeing, its been moving NNW for a few hours now.

looking at the last few frames I'm not sure what you're seeing

i agree the last frame i see a WNW wobble, will need at least 2 more frames to see if this is the turn. i think there may be a bit more "stair steping"

[93superstorm]

Starting to see a more WNW . Lets see what happens next couple hours

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im with ya...Timing is everything and its never right 5 days out..

I'm really talking right now and the next day or so - which of course affects the longer range. I do think it'll move west, I just don't see it being as fast as forecast. What that does to the long range track I don't know.

Well after watcing these things for years now slowdowns or stalls Seem like a given...Look at Wilma for example even thought she had the same endgame she was about 3 days late at doing so..

[ExBailbonds]

I need the updated GFDL model for this Hurricane Please

Its not out yet

[twister]

That eye must be tucked under the convection. On IR convection very deep. Man........that cone has shifted a lot since last night.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... t_enhanced

[dwg71]

DR is having its way with Gus. The entire northern half is almost void of convection. Center is very near coast.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[mutley]

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Northwest movement.


Map:

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UT ... 42&t=p&z=8

Could make a quick crossing.

[cpdaman]

DR is having its way with Gus. The entire northern half is almost void of convection. Center is very near coast.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

i must agree the last motion (time 4:15 utc shows a N wobble) after the prior wnw wobble

the clouds and convection over D.R are now moving North east

[gatorcane]

I still see a NW movement a bit to the right of the NHC 26/18 UTC forecast point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Chacor]

Advisory is out. 80 kt, 105 kt forecast.

[TSmith274]

Hah FNC is foaming at the mouth about these tracks. Turning the TV off now.

[tolakram]

Lot's of variance in forecast tracks, as expected.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like something is Forming in the BOC. I'm wondering if it will have an effect on Gustavs track?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102776

[Ivanhater]