ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Gustywind]

Convection expanding nicely

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012216
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 37 20090901
220700 1743N 05828W 8422 01589 0112 +165 +165 049027 030 036 003 00
220730 1742N 05828W 8430 01580 0114 +160 +160 048019 019 033 000 03
220800 1740N 05828W 8429 01581 0106 +173 +156 048018 019 031 000 03
220830 1738N 05828W 8430 01580 0104 +177 +152 042018 019 027 000 03
220900 1736N 05828W 8434 01575 0106 +175 +151 046016 018 028 000 03
220930 1735N 05828W 8429 01580 0107 +172 +151 050018 022 031 000 03
221000 1733N 05828W 8434 01577 0111 +167 +151 045016 020 032 000 03
221030 1731N 05828W 8429 01581 0106 +174 +149 036014 015 033 000 03
221100 1729N 05828W 8433 01576 0107 +172 +148 040012 013 999 999 03
221130 1728N 05828W 8430 01580 0106 +175 +149 050010 011 999 999 03
221200 1726N 05828W 8427 01582 0105 +175 +149 053015 018 999 999 03
221230 1724N 05828W 8428 01580 0105 +176 +150 049015 015 032 000 03
221300 1723N 05828W 8428 01580 0105 +174 +151 043015 016 033 000 03
221330 1721N 05828W 8434 01574 0103 +174 +150 039014 015 034 000 03
221400 1719N 05828W 8429 01579 0102 +178 +148 028010 011 032 000 03
221430 1717N 05828W 8429 01580 0101 +180 +148 019009 009 032 000 03
221500 1716N 05828W 8432 01577 0100 +180 +148 023008 009 032 000 03
221530 1714N 05828W 8429 01577 0097 +184 +150 043009 010 999 999 03
221600 1712N 05828W 8426 01580 0104 +171 +152 051016 018 032 004 03
221630 1710N 05828W 8434 01573 0108 +165 +152 043012 013 032 004 00
$$
;


They moved up to 850mb.

[deltadog03]

Cool, they are still out there. I would move up as well. Some xtreme updrafts going on.

[fasterdisaster]

It's organization resembles that of a quite strong TS. Possibly on the order of 60-65 mph.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

It's organization resembles that of a quite strong TS. Possibly on the order of 60-65 mph.

It's possible because the area of convection wasn't sampled.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012236
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 39 20090901
222700 1635N 05828W 8425 01584 0095 +188 +158 287012 012 022 000 03
222730 1633N 05828W 8429 01580 0095 +187 +158 293012 013 023 000 03
222800 1631N 05828W 8432 01578 0095 +190 +158 290013 013 022 000 00
222830 1629N 05828W 8430 01579 0096 +189 +158 290013 013 021 000 00
222900 1628N 05828W 8430 01578 0096 +188 +159 293013 014 022 000 00
222930 1626N 05828W 8432 01579 0096 +188 +159 292013 013 021 000 00
223000 1624N 05828W 8429 01579 0095 +185 +159 290013 013 021 000 00
223030 1623N 05828W 8429 01578 0096 +185 +160 295013 013 021 000 00
223100 1621N 05828W 8429 01579 0097 +184 +160 299012 014 020 000 00
223130 1619N 05828W 8429 01579 0098 +184 +160 289014 014 020 000 03
223200 1618N 05829W 8432 01578 0098 +184 +160 280014 015 018 000 00
223230 1616N 05829W 8429 01579 0102 +176 +160 284013 015 019 000 00
223300 1614N 05829W 8425 01584 0106 +169 +159 288012 015 020 004 00
223330 1612N 05829W 8433 01577 0102 +181 +156 290014 015 021 000 00
223400 1611N 05829W 8426 01584 0105 +176 +154 298013 013 024 003 00
223430 1609N 05829W 8428 01582 0111 +166 +153 303015 016 023 005 00
223500 1607N 05829W 8428 01585 0106 +175 +150 288015 016 019 000 00
223530 1606N 05829W 8430 01582 0106 +177 +148 280014 015 021 000 03
223600 1604N 05829W 8430 01583 0105 +180 +148 275014 014 020 000 00
223630 1602N 05829W 8429 01582 0106 +179 +148 278015 015 020 000 03
$$
;


Someone can take over if they wish.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS in, and I believe that the lump that is Erika 144 hours out is hitting SFL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

EDIT: And still affecting FL at 168 hours? I cant tell which system that is over FL lol!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmm just got back, Erika it is. Little powerhouse apparently. Need to go look at some WV loops...

[lonelymike]

This is PURELY SPECULATIVE, and should not be held by anyone as a reliable forecast since it is purely amateur, but does anyone think with the ridge building in that Erika could be a rare threat to Georgia?

Not impossible but very unlikely IMO. When was the last major hurricane to hit the Ga coast. I remember a Tropical Storm came close a couple of years ago.....

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

New GFS in, and I believe that the lump that is Erika 144 hours out is hitting SFL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

EDIT: And still affecting FL at 168 hours? I cant tell which system that is over FL lol!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

More importantly, look at the ridge on the gfs, an Omega high by 168 hours, and keeps the ridge in tact fairly well until then

84 hrs



168

[HURAKAN]

886
URNT15 KNHC 012246
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 40 20090901
223700 1601N 05828W 8429 01586 0109 +177 +149 272015 015 016 001 03
223730 1600N 05827W 8430 01584 0110 +176 +150 258013 014 999 999 03
223800 1601N 05826W 8432 01582 0107 +175 +152 249012 013 999 999 03
223830 1603N 05825W 8426 01586 0106 +178 +153 245011 012 023 000 03
223900 1604N 05823W 8436 01576 0105 +177 +152 246012 012 999 999 03
223930 1605N 05822W 8427 01584 0105 +177 +153 249012 013 999 999 03
224000 1606N 05821W 8429 01582 0105 +175 +153 254012 014 999 999 03
224030 1608N 05819W 8434 01576 0104 +179 +153 257010 010 999 999 03
224100 1609N 05818W 8428 01582 0103 +180 +154 257011 012 999 999 03
224130 1610N 05817W 8433 01579 0106 +174 +154 257010 011 999 999 03
224200 1611N 05816W 8428 01579 0103 +178 +154 255012 013 999 999 03
224230 1612N 05814W 8429 01580 0102 +179 +152 255013 013 999 999 03
224300 1614N 05813W 8430 01578 0102 +179 +152 251011 012 999 999 03
224330 1615N 05812W 8430 01579 0101 +181 +152 258010 011 999 999 03
224400 1616N 05811W 8430 01577 0098 +182 +152 264011 011 999 999 03
224430 1617N 05809W 8428 01580 0099 +180 +153 260011 011 999 999 03
224500 1619N 05808W 8434 01575 0100 +180 +154 260013 014 016 000 03
224530 1620N 05807W 8429 01580 0101 +178 +155 265013 014 019 000 00
224600 1621N 05806W 8429 01579 0100 +179 +155 271011 011 019 000 03
224630 1622N 05804W 8431 01577 0099 +180 +155 270010 010 021 000 00
$$
;

[boca]

Erika's closets approach to Florida is 350 miles going by the NHC track. I'm not worried.The trough is our friend.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Erika's closets approach to Florida is 350 miles going by the NHC track. I'm not worried.The trough is our friend.

Maybe the through is our friend, maybe not. The latest GFS has a giant ridge in place, not showing a ridge at all, and of course, things will change. It really is to soon to tell who this will effect.

[hurricanedude]

Hurricane David....1947

[micktooth]

Major Hurricanes Spare Georgia For More Than A Century
Major hurricanes occurred fairly frequently in Georgia during the 1800's, when 5 big storms hit the
state.
• Aug. 27, 1881 - a deadly hurricane hit the Georgia coast killing an estimated 700 people
and leaving an unknown number homeless
• Aug. 27-28, 1893 - a major hurricane hit the Georgia and SC coasts drowning 1,000 to
2,500 people and leaving more than 30,000 homeless
• Aug. 31, 1898 - the last Category 3 hurricane to hit Georgia struck Savannah, killing an
estimated 179 people

Although no major hurricanes made direct hits on Georgia during the 1900's, four minor
hurricanes did make direct hits.
• 1911 - a Category 2 hurricane hit Savannah, killing 17
• 1940 - a Category 2 hurricane hit Savannah, killing 50
• 1947 - a Category 2 hurricane hit Savannah, killing 1
• 1979 - a Category 2 (Hurricane David) hit Savannah, no deaths or major damage
reported