ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Extratropical94]

Observation 16


000
URNT15 KNHC 011141
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20110801
113100 1333N 05726W 9772 00298 0109 +240 +221 128012 012 015 000 03
113130 1333N 05728W 9769 00301 0110 +239 +221 124012 012 015 000 00
113200 1332N 05730W 9771 00299 0110 +237 +222 125012 012 015 000 00
113230 1332N 05732W 9769 00302 0110 +235 +223 131010 011 019 001 00
113300 1331N 05734W 9770 00301 0110 +236 +223 131012 012 011 000 03
113330 1330N 05735W 9770 00301 0110 +235 +223 130012 012 012 000 03
113400 1330N 05737W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +224 132011 011 012 000 03
113430 1329N 05739W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +224 129011 011 011 000 00
113500 1329N 05741W 9769 00301 0111 +235 +223 132011 012 012 000 00
113530 1328N 05743W 9772 00298 0110 +235 +223 132012 012 012 000 03
113600 1327N 05745W 9770 00300 0110 +235 +223 128012 012 013 000 03
113630 1327N 05747W 9771 00300 0110 +236 +223 129013 013 013 000 00
113700 1326N 05749W 9772 00299 0110 +236 +223 132013 013 013 000 03
113730 1326N 05751W 9769 00301 0110 +235 +224 129012 013 013 001 03
113800 1325N 05752W 9772 00300 0110 +235 +224 129012 012 011 000 03
113830 1324N 05754W 9772 00300 0110 +235 +224 124011 012 013 001 03
113900 1324N 05756W 9771 00300 0111 +235 +224 120011 011 012 000 00
113930 1323N 05758W 9771 00299 0111 +235 +224 115011 012 013 000 03
114000 1323N 05800W 9770 00300 0110 +235 +224 112011 011 010 000 00
114030 1322N 05802W 9770 00300 0110 +236 +224 112012 012 011 000 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

Very weak rain-rate.

[Aric Dunn]

google images ? anyone

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Evil Jeremy]

Still 90% at 8am, sorry if that was already posted.

[KWT]

Makes sense no reason to up or lower the systems chances.

Pretty clear already that there is no well defined circulation, it really is struggling big time at the surface, good news perhaps for the Caribbean afterall...though to be fair plenty of time to strengthen before Hispaniola...

Bet we see even more of a west shift and maybe even E.Cuba comes into play if this keeps happening...

[wxman57]

They're searching for a center well west of the convection.

[cycloneye]

Let's have the main recon thread for data only and discuss here all about the mission.

[Evil Jeremy]

Big east shift on new gfdl. Clear recurve east of bahamas

[Extratropical94]

Observation 17
000
URNT15 KNHC 011150
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 17 20110801
114100 1321N 05804W 9769 00301 0110 +235 +223 107011 012 011 000 00
114130 1321N 05806W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +224 105011 012 011 000 03
114200 1320N 05808W 9770 00300 0110 +235 +224 104010 011 008 000 03
114230 1319N 05810W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +224 106010 010 010 000 00
114300 1319N 05812W 9769 00300 0110 +235 +224 102010 010 009 000 03
114330 1318N 05814W 9771 00299 0110 +235 +223 101010 010 007 000 03
114400 1318N 05815W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +223 095010 010 009 000 03
114430 1317N 05817W 9770 00300 0110 +235 +223 099009 010 009 000 03
114500 1316N 05819W 9772 00299 0109 +235 +223 104010 010 010 000 03
114530 1316N 05821W 9770 00299 0109 +235 +223 101011 011 010 000 03
114600 1315N 05823W 9770 00299 0109 +235 +223 096011 011 008 000 00
114630 1314N 05825W 9770 00300 0109 +235 +223 093010 010 006 000 03
114700 1314N 05827W 9779 00291 0109 +235 +223 102012 014 /// /// 03
114730 1315N 05828W 9766 00303 0109 +235 +223 118014 014 009 000 03
114800 1317N 05829W 9773 00297 0109 +235 +224 118013 014 006 000 03
114830 1319N 05829W 9770 00300 0109 +235 +226 129010 012 /// /// 03
114900 1319N 05827W 9774 00296 0109 +235 +227 137006 008 /// /// 03
114930 1318N 05826W 9774 00295 0109 +235 +227 121005 005 011 000 03
115000 1316N 05825W 9770 00300 0109 +235 +227 127006 007 010 000 03
115030 1315N 05823W 9771 00299 0110 +235 +226 144008 008 012 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Don't think there is a center, or if there is one its miles away from the convection...

[KWT]

GFDL has been a bit flip-flopping all over the place, what does it do in terms of strength?

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't know, only saw sfwmd graph.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is going to have to go farther SW to find any hope of a west wind.

[SFLcane]

GFDL has been a bit flip-flopping all over the place, what does it do in terms of strength?

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011080106/invest91l.2011080106_anim.html

[KWT]

Moves NW way too soon from the looks of things.

Strength looks reasonable but no way for it to adjust upto 17-18N like the GFDL suggests, at least no reason that I can see right now!

[Extratropical94]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011201
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 18 20110801
115100 1314N 05822W 9773 00297 0110 +235 +225 150007 008 009 000 03
115130 1313N 05820W 9770 00299 0110 +235 +225 155007 008 008 000 03
115200 1313N 05818W 9771 00300 0110 +235 +224 156007 007 007 001 03
115230 1312N 05817W 9770 00300 0111 +235 +224 155008 008 007 000 03
115300 1311N 05815W 9772 00299 0111 +235 +224 160008 009 011 000 03
115330 1310N 05813W 9770 00302 0111 +235 +223 162008 009 008 000 03
115400 1309N 05812W 9770 00301 0112 +235 +223 154009 010 011 000 03
115430 1308N 05810W 9771 00301 0112 +236 +223 154009 010 009 001 03
115500 1307N 05809W 9769 00304 0112 +235 +222 158009 010 011 000 03
115530 1306N 05807W 9771 00302 0112 +235 +222 164010 011 009 000 03
115600 1305N 05805W 9769 00303 0113 +235 +222 169011 012 010 000 03
115630 1304N 05804W 9771 00302 0113 +235 +222 171012 012 008 000 03
115700 1303N 05802W 9770 00303 0113 +235 +222 175012 012 011 000 03
115730 1302N 05800W 9770 00303 0113 +235 +222 172012 012 011 000 03
115800 1302N 05759W 9773 00300 0113 +235 +222 170013 013 012 000 03
115830 1301N 05757W 9768 00305 0114 +235 +222 171014 015 014 000 03
115900 1300N 05755W 9771 00303 0114 +235 +222 168015 016 016 000 03
115930 1259N 05754W 9772 00302 0114 +235 +222 168015 016 016 001 03
120000 1258N 05752W 9769 00303 0114 +235 +222 169015 016 015 000 03
120030 1257N 05751W 9768 00308 0114 +235 +222 168015 016 016 000 03
$$
;
Observation 18

[Weatherfreak000]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

[shaggy]

IMO the next 24 hours is crucial in regards to models. If this storm explodes and really goes through some rapid intensification then the models may want to shift back east because of the stronger system. Lots of land interaction with the greater antilles and then the more westward it should go.....very critical timeframe for long range modeling IMO.


I am hoping it doesn't explode cause its close to the islands already and they may not have time to get ready for a cat 2 or 3.

[KWT]

Yep Aric, I doubt there'd be much that far south andif there was then the models are going to be well off..

Peretty much the conclusion to be made is there is no circulation at the lower levels...STILL...