Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GaryHughes]

Good grief reading this board is like watching your favorite NFL team play the Super Bowl In sloooooooow mooooooootion!

One minute your up and next thing you know "BAM" the other team scores again ....

[Portastorm]

Good grief reading this board is like watching your favorite NFL team play the Super Bowl In sloooooooow mooooooootion!

One minute your up and next thing you know "BAM" the other team scores again ....

Good analogy, Gary!

Years ago on this forum, I used the analogy that it's like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football with Lucy holding ... just when you think "this time, I got it!" ... Lucy yanks the football from you and you fall on your backside!

This is why folks should never get too hyped up over a weather pattern which *may* unfold 7-10 days out. Changes seem to always occur. We still have a ways to go on this one and expect more changes. It'll be entertaining to say the least!

For the record, I do think the EUro may come back to the GFS side of things. We shall see.

[Portastorm]

Upon further review, the GFS ensemble means are close to what the Euro is suggesting. Yesterday we saw the models showing a full latitude trough over the central US at about 240 hours out (10 days). The 0z ensembles lag this trough further west and hold off on any Arctic outbreaks. Hmm ...

Euro



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GFS



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[GaryHughes]

And the other team scores again....

[NDG]

Upon further review, the GFS ensemble means are close to what the Euro is suggesting. Yesterday we saw the models showing a full latitude trough over the central US at about 240 hours out (10 days). The 0z ensembles lag this trough further west and hold off on any Arctic outbreaks. Hmm ...

Euro

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1383/00zecmwfens500mbheighta.gif

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GFS

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/4513/00zgfsensembles500mbhei.gif

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And the Euro's ensembles' mean agree with its last night's Operational's run.


Edit: We may have to wait a little longer for things to fall in place, if at all.

[gpsnowman]

Say it isn't so! It is only one model run, right! Too many signs pointing towards cold. The models will rebound. I hope.

[orangeblood]

With the EPO forecast to go in the tank, putting a trough east of Hawaii, that should prevent any system from cutting off over the southwest. It should make this pattern much more progressive, with each system eating away at the ridge over the southeastern US. Arctic Cold usually overwhelms the pattern this time of year!! No need to worry, IMO!

[GaryHughes]

Portastorm it's the fourth quarter and the 2:00 minute warning has just sounded... we're down by 10 and need a miracle...

[gpsnowman]

With the EPO forecast to go in the tank, putting a trough east of Hawaii, that should prevent any system from cutting off over the southwest. It should make this pattern much more progressive, with each system eating away at the ridge over the southeastern US. Arctic Cold usually overwhelms the pattern this time of year!! No need to worry, IMO!

Thanks orangeblood. Your post is alleviating some pain at the moment.

[Ntxw]

Jesus, one so so look at the surface features 240 hours out and everyone goes into fetus mode. Pattern folks, look at the pattern. Your major players are STILL there.

12z GFS is 1054mb into Wyoming

[Portastorm]

Portastorm it's the fourth quarter and the 2:00 minute warning has just sounded... we're down by 10 and need a miracle...

Perhaps the 12z GFS will be the miracle. Most folks here will enjoy it.

[Ntxw]

Canadian puts 1061mb in Alaska and the Yukon

[Rgv20]

We might get in the action with the next system affecting Texas..


The potential for severe weather across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas...Tuesday night into Wednesday...continues to increase. A strong upper level low will move through northern Mexico on Tuesday then move northeast through central Texas. Ahead of this system...a warm front will move through the region Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after midnight Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase late Tuesday and intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms will be early Wednesday along and ahead of a Pacific cold front that will sweep through the region and move off the Lower Texas Coast by early afternoon. We will continue to monitor this developing weather story. -Campbell-

[Rgv20]

With regards to possible cold, you guys get discourage too easy with just one Operational ECMWF Model Run......If I'm not mistaken one of the Biases of the Euro is that it like to cut off those Baja Lows especially in the longer range. The pattern still looking like its going to be cold for Texas come the second half of January..


Looks like the 12zCMC wants to kick start the Cold Pattern with a 1060 High in NW Canada in about 8 days....We could be looking for the first Arctic Front in 10-12 days from now.

[GaryHughes]

Portastorm it's the fourth quarter and the 2:00 minute warning has just sounded... we're down by 10 and need a miracle...

Perhaps the 12z GFS will be the miracle. Most folks here will enjoy it.

I knew we were going to pull it out the whole time ... we scored with 51 seconds left and recovered the onside kick and just when I thought it was over .... a Hail marry (Ntxw to Portastorm via Gfs) TOUCHDOWN!

[Ntxw]

By the way, there is still a potential snowstorm threat for Texas especially along I-20 within the next two weeks. Once that NE Pacific ridge starts kicking in, that is analog for winter weather. Front end and back end, and though the 12z GFS isn't as impressive as the 6z (half a foot or more) and 0z it's looking more and more like a legit threat.

[BigB0882]

It is also important to remember how notorious the models are for sniffing out something long range only to lose it in the mid range and then bringing it back with about 3-4 days to go. The Euro could be having this problem. It could also be on to something and the cold will never arrive, we have to consider it but that is why we look at so many models. The pattern seems too favorable for cold for nothing to happen, IMO.

[Ntxw]

^ That is well said BigB0882. Even though technically we are looking at the long range, the birth of the -EPO actually will begin within the next 48 hours. The storm that will effect most of us in several days is a result of the building heights into Alaska, the pattern shift is already in motion. We're just looking to see how cold it will get and of course you can't rely fully on the model for that in such advance.

[Kennethb]

I am all for a decent cold Arctic outbreak too. But remember 2 years ago I think we had a similiar setup. Both of the "reliable" models had 1050+ highs digging into the Plains at about 6-7 days out that had even the most conservative mets on board that Arctic was coming.

This time we have all of the teleconnections there with good general agreement. Generally it takes a little longer to get cold air to drop than models want. Cold air is dense so the energy and physics to get it to begin moving takes a while longer so the models generally have some difficulty in trying to figure things out. Too with blocking cold air needs to go somewhere. Sometimes it ends up on other sides of the globe.

In our favor is climatology the coldest time of the year is the third week of January and we have a good snowpack up north. The SOI is dropping again, so that suggests another round of an active STJ about the time the cold air should arrive.

[cycloneye]

I am all for a decent cold Arctic outbreak too. But remember 2 years ago I think we had a similiar setup. Both of the "reliable" models had 1050+ highs digging into the Plains at about 6-7 days out that had even the most conservative mets on board that Arctic was coming.

This time we have all of the teleconnections there with good general agreement. Generally it takes a little longer to get cold air to drop than models want. Cold air is dense so the energy and physics to get it to begin moving takes a while longer so the models generally have some difficulty in trying to figure things out. Too with blocking cold air needs to go somewhere. Sometimes it ends up on other sides of the globe.

In our favor is climatology the coldest time of the year is the third week of January and we have a good snowpack up north. The SOI is dropping again, so that suggests another round of an active STJ about the time the cold air should arrive.

The SOI is going down again as you said but the elusive El Nino is still hiding.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/