ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Why did the GFS move so fast compared to 12z?

Irma gets caught up in the negatively tilted trough on this run is why.

[Bocadude85]

The GFS and the Euro have shown all kinds of landfall scenarios but none have actually shown a Florida landfall which seems rather unusual to me, I would almost feel better if they were showing a landfall in Florida now while we are still 10 days out.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Definitely favoring the Euro setup here. That ridge over Atlantic Canada looks comically overdone.

On the contrary, the trough or amount of cutoffing could be overdone as well.

[weathaguyry]

GFS brings Irene-like flooding back to NY...on behalf of me and every other FR in the state...NO THANKS!

A cat 4 hurricane is going to be A LITTLE MORE than Irene style flooding!!! It will likely surpass Sandy's flooding if that comes true, and it's at high tide.

[RL3AO]

The forecast comes down to two huge pieces

Short term is the track in the next 5 days. The Euro and GFS are about 250 miles apart which is going to be a huge piece of the puzzle.

Long term is the eastern US trough. Something more progressive vs a cutoff trough.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Definitely favoring the Euro setup here. That ridge over Atlantic Canada looks comically overdone.

On the contrary, the trough or amount of cutoffing could be overdone as well.

Keep in mind we've had roughly two weeks of clear, cool weather from the last ridge up here, so the next one could be a monster too.

[SootyTern]

Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.

Ha! GFS does that to us down here at least once a season

[SouthFLTropics]

that GFS verifies and I will be living in Indonesia by the turn of the new year. Economy will be DESTROYED, especially with the destruction of Houston

That would be FEMA's worst nightmare. Resources stretched thin on opposite ends of the country in two out of the four largest cities in the nation. Something like that could redefine the face and direction of this nation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS brings Irene-like flooding back to NY...on behalf of me and every other FR in the state...NO THANKS!

A cat 4 hurricane is going to be A LITTLE MORE than Irene style flooding!!! It will likely surpass Sandy's flooding if that comes true, and it's at high tide.

I meant rainfall, and I was looking at the GFS verbatim, just for kicks and giggles.

[Steve]

Landfall is is 8 1/2 days from 18z today which means the storm hits NYC Sunday morning at 1am. 8 1/2 days is a long time in the model world but inside of model "fantasy land". And I'd caution everyone that the GFS and European haven't exactly been good in the mid-range which is what we'll be in throughout the labor day weekend. Unless all tracks come into agreement, don't expect to see the real solution, unless one accidentally hits it, before next Tuesday when we get inside of 5 days.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS and the Euro have shown all kinds of landfall scenarios but none have actually shown a Florida landfall which seems rather unusual to me, I would almost feel better if they were showing a landfall in Florida now while we are still 10 days out.

I said that earlier and I agree. The closest we've gotten to a landfall out of either of them was when the Euro hit the Keys the other day. The Peninsula has gotten off Scott free. It makes me feel uncomfortable.

EDIT: Early GFS had it through the Keys and into the Big Bend.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The GFS and the Euro have shown all kinds of landfall scenarios but none have actually shown a Florida landfall which seems rather unusual to me, I would almost feel better if they were showing a landfall in Florida now while we are still 10 days out.

I said that earlier and I agree. The closest we've gotten to a landfall out of either of them was when the Euro hit the Keys the other day. The Peninsula has gotten off Scott free. It makes me feel uncomfortable.

EDIT: Early GFS had it through the Keys and into the Big Bend.

Indeed, better to be in the crosshairs now than 72hrs out.

[KWT]

Well the 18z GFS throws out an utter classic of a run thats for sure, what a disaster that would be if that were to come off.

Luckily there is a long way to go yet and such a path requires a near perfect combination, but its not the first time the GFS has come up with just such a solution.

[stormreader]

Landfall is is 8 1/2 days from 18z today which means the storm hits NYC which is next Sunday morning at 1am. 8 1/2 days is a long time in the model world but inside of model "fantasy land". And I'd caution everyone that the GFS and European haven't exactly been good in the mid-range which is what we'll be in throughout the labor day weekend. Unless all tracks come into agreement. Don't expect to see the real solution, unless one accidentally hits it, before next Tuesday when we get inside of 5 days.

However, at this very early stage I am trying to narrow it down---to say 800 miles or so---North Carolina to Cuba--about that??

[Michele B]

On 5 pm sat loop, Irma looks like it's got its own "blob," kinda running interference in front of it!

lol

The storm itself looks really, really good. Very healthy, good outflow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

A lot more interested to see the GFS/ENS than the OP at this point...

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is about 1/2 a degree NE through 39 Hours

[Alyono]

GFS brings Irene-like flooding back to NY...on behalf of me and every other FR in the state...NO THANKS!

A cat 4 hurricane is going to be A LITTLE MORE than Irene style flooding!!! It will likely surpass Sandy's flooding if that comes true, and it's at high tide.

that kind of hurricane would send 30 to 40 feet of water rushing through Manhattan with 30 foot waves on top. High or low tide will not even matter

[hohnywx]

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

Kinda like the same way it wouldn't rain 50 inches over Texas last week?

It's the weather, just about anything is possible.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is 1/2 a degree NW through 66 hours