Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Belmer]

One thing to really note the last 48 hours -

Check out how more dense the models are picking up on the cold air (which isn't a surprise as we've seen these shallow arctic airmasses come in faster than modeled). This is from 12z GFS Saturday

vs 12z GFS today (Monday)

That is almost a 250 mile difference where the freezing line is come 6AM CT Friday morning from northern Kansas to TX/OK border.

[Haris]

Why is icon so dry? Is it cuz the system moves too fast, it also shows the front a day slower than other models.

Also hello and i am back! I think its been 2 yeats since I’ve posted and checked

[Stratton23]

Yup another brutal ice/sleet storm on the 12z GFS for the hill country and the houston metro, what strikes me is the long duration of this winter storm, most of saturday and bearly all of sunday before things slowly clear out

[Ntxw]

Why is icon so dry? Is it cuz the system moves too fast, it also shows the front a day slower than other models.

Also hello and i am back! I think its been 2 yeats since I’ve posted and checked

To be fair ICON has just recently up ticked in precip anywhere in the state just in the last couple of runs. It's typically very conservative with qpf in general and picks it up right up near the event. The other models are driving the STJ through the state which is the catalyst for most of the event.

[Iceresistance]

Yup another brutal ice/sleet storm on the 12z GFS for the hill country and the houston metro, what strikes me is the long duration of this winter storm, most of saturday and bearly all of sunday before things slowly clear out

I think the GFS is too far south, since I've noticed Euro has picked up on trends faster than GFS
Do want to note that the Euro has picked up a SE Ridge on it's trends.

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkM2C.gif

[Gotwood]

Yup another brutal ice/sleet storm on the 12z GFS for the hill country and the houston metro, what strikes me is the long duration of this winter storm, most of saturday and bearly all of sunday before things slowly clear out

I think the GFS is too far south, since I've noticed Euro has picked up on trends faster than GFS
Do want to note that the Euro has picked up a SE Ridge on it's trends.
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkM2C.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkM2C.gif

Let’s pray that SE ridge stays.

[rwfromkansas]

This model run or seems to shunt everything east of Texas and we barely get anything. BAM Weather on X.

https://x.com/i/status/2013272214498361466

Based on the name they are likely pushing for their region.

[Ntxw]

Also wanted to note, as we argue who gets more what, there are two forces at play. Both frontogenesis upglide with precip with it, this is along the arctic front further north tied to the northern stream. There is very likely a band of snow, high ratios etc with it coming out of the central plains. The subtropical jet qpf is more unpredictable and coming out of a region that we historically know is not modeled well.

[Kingarabian]

This model run or seems to shunt everything east of Texas and we barely get anything. BAM Weather on X.

https://x.com/i/status/2013272214498361466

Based on the name they are likely pushing for their region.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013279346849427810

[txtwister78]

CMC goes nuclear with cold...shocker. Lol

[Brent]

CMC goes nuclear with cold...shocker. Lol

Can't believe it shows a warm nose here being that cold a warm nose at 5 degrees!

But yeah otherwise what else is new

[wxman22]

12z GFS & CMC

[jaguars_22]

Idk I’m beginning to see the precip moving faster to the east and beating the cold… so my question is what kind of surprise do we need for the southern Texas area to get more sleet? Colder air? How do we get rid of the warm nose?

[Stratton23]

CMC has a 2nd disturbance overnight wednesday into thursday, a lot to watch

[Ntxw]

Idk I’m beginning to see the precip moving faster to the east and beating the cold… so my question is what kind of surprise do we need for the southern Texas area to get more sleet? Colder air? How do we get rid of the warm nose?

The upper level cold needs to be deeper, its aim right now is the midwest and Ohio valley, we are on the southwestern peripheral. More cold at the surface just means more ice accretion, verbatim, so a further westward/southward expansion at the upper levels is preferred. Scenario 2 is the ULL coming out and cooling the column west to east and surface low develop well into the gulf. This is for the regions you mentioned.

[Cpv17]

Idk I’m beginning to see the precip moving faster to the east and beating the cold… so my question is what kind of surprise do we need for the southern Texas area to get more sleet? Colder air? How do we get rid of the warm nose?

It’s still early. Things can improve for our part of the state, just don’t get your hopes up.

[rwfromkansas]

234 guests…phew.

[Sambucol2024]

Man what a bulldozer high. If the trajectory was a little more west, even without snow and ice many of us would probably approach single digits anyway. This was looking like a bit of cold a week ago, now a ton of cold, how models can miss it by that much, but of course we were on top of it here! Kudos to the pattern recognizers!

https://i.imgur.com/Hx3mFFa.png

That will drive the air mass down south most certainly.

[orangeblood]

12Z GEFS continues to increase qpf totals across the state. Timing and depth of cold is obviously going to take awhile to iron out but the upper level features are coming together
consistently. 12Z GFS Op is still outlier with 5h depictions

[hurricane2025]

CMC sucks, gfs isn’t good, euro all day. Se tx escapes