Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
INDICATED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF RATHER DRY STABLE AIR...THUS SIGNATURE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N 24W 7N33W 9N52W
11N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
PLAGUED THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS EXTENDING THROUGH
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 29N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N97W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR
18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH W INTO MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 22N E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 92W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N85W EXTENDING AN AXIS NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED FORCING SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 26N95.5W WITH SIMILAR
ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
BEING PUSHED INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO FORT
MYERS E OF 83W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS
SPLITTING THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE NW CARIBBEAN HAVING ELY UPPER
FLOW AND S AND E CARIBBEAN HAVING W UPPER FLOW. THE S CARIBBEAN
HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SW OF A
LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM 14N-18N E OF 67W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINING CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
ATLC AND COMBINED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N55W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N62W ALONG
22N66W OVER THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
STRONG NLY UPPER WINDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
NEAR 73W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W TO 29N61W AND A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO 24N70W. THIS IS ALL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
200 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 53W AND N OF 22N TO THE FRONT
BETWEEN 53W-64W. A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT...IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 19N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 22N37W THROUGH THE LOW TO 17N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 33W-36W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 23N E OF 45W. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE WEAKENING SURGE OF SAHARAN
DUST COVERING THE FAR E TROPICAL ATLC N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 17N-25N TO 34W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

The Lesser Antilles...

[Gustywind]

Quiet tropics
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 27, 2009 6:14 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the Atlantic, the remnants of Tropical Depression 8 are located about 650 miles west-northwest of the northernmost Cape Verde Islands. It is not currently expected to regenerate as upper level winds are not favorable.

[msbee]

hi everyone
just checking in to see that everything is OK in the tropics.
I am in Pennsylvania where it is cloudy, foggy,raining, and 63 degrees.

[cycloneye]

hi everyone
just checking in to see that everything is OK in the tropics.
I am in Pennsylvania where it is cloudy, foggy,raining, and 63 degrees.

Have a safe trip back.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ONLY TYPICAL DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN UNCHANGED FROM LAST 24
HOURS. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON...NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL BE POSITIONED IN A
FAVORABLE AREA TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ADDITION...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WILL ENHANCE EVEN MORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NOT NECESSARILY ONLY
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BUT MORE WIDESPREAD. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODEL
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST MON SEP 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DICTATED BY
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING...DEPICTED AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.V.I. AND CULEBRA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING. UPPER TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FINALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS...
DEPICTED A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS REASONING...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING PREDICTS
PWAT VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.7 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED RAIN SYSTEMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DIURNALLY CONVECTION WILL START ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...SPREADING LATER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE WIND FLOW
OVER THE REGION.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 280839
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST MON SEP 28 2009

SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS WAS DUE TO MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDY BEING BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION IN A PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME
SHOWERS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND PRODUCED MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS TODAY AS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA OR SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER GIVE WAY TO A FEW
AFTERNOON IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE ISLANDS BUT NO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM COLOMBIA'S GULF OF URABA TO 12N BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W EASILY PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE TO 8N12W 8N20W 11N32W 8N46W TO 10N62W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE
EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AT 28N INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N98W 27N90W 28N82W BEYOND 30N76W WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 15N74W AND 12N81W...
SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
COLOMBIA'S GULF OF URABA TO 12N80W PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED
TO THE ITCZ AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
EAST OF 68W...RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A.
TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CURRENT COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AT 28N
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON 32N72W 28N76W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N79W...TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N46W TO
A 30N60W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TO 24N65W...ACROSS THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N40W TO 29N45W TO 28N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 28N50W TO 30N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM 24N36W TO 16N39W TO 8N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
23N42W TO 17N41W TO 12N44W IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 26N23W TO 20N29W.
NO SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST MON SEP 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC SWWD THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS POLAR TROUGH OVR THE ERN US DEEPENS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGING FCST TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 78 HRS AND WILL ACT TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THU. ONLY WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVR THE WEST OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAP WEAKENS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK BUT MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE MODEST AT BEST. SO
OVERALL...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LATEST 200 MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES FROM THE CPC WEB SITE INDICATE
UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN STARTING ON OCT 6TH AND
CONTINUING THROUGH OCT 20. WHILE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO CURRENT EL NINO CONDITIONS AND HIGH LEVELS
OF SHEAR WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL MCS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER DUE TO MORE FVBRL MJO CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST MON SEP 28 2009


.SYNOPSIS...DAILY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND VI OVERNIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME
HEAVING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WAS COVERED WELL IN
INHERITED FORECAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING SWELLS TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TOMORROW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO REFLECT THESE INCREASING SEAS.

[Gustywind]

Good morning all .

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290823
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DICTATED BY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
MOSTLY RAIN FREE AND ACCORDINGLY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS
OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AND THE ABSENCE OF
ORGANIZED RAIN SYSTEMS...THE COMBINATION OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WITH LIMITED RAINFALL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WITH
VCTS AT JBQ AND JMZ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 77 / 10 10 20 20
STT 88 81 89 80 / 20 20 30 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 290841
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE SEP 29 2009

SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE REGION. THE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED A FEW LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED OVER LAND.
WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO THE MID LEVELS AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IF ANY...WILL BE DIURNALLY INDUCED AND FOCUSED MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH SEAS OF
UP TO 7 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND 6 FEET OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
OF WEST PUERTO RICO.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED
TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N15W 7N22W TO 10N39W 8N50W 9N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 13W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N43W 8N50W 12N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON TOP OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N.
A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND 48 HOURS...AND TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES
ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 13N77W AND 13N84W
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR AND IN WESTERN HONDURAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING THROUGH
THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND
79W. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N30W TO 28N44W TO A 29N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 30N60W
27N63W...ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 67W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N37W TO 10N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH IS SHEARING THE FEW NEARBY CLOUD TOPS. A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 15N TO
21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND
48W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 19N20W. NO SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH IS
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST TUE SEP 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC SWWD THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS AS
POLAR TROUGH OVR THE ERN US/WRN ATLC DEEPENS. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE CAP/MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS. GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSIDENCE CAP ERODING FRI AFTERNOON
WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO 2.0 INCHES AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE A SIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SAT AND SUN
WITH CAP BUILDING AGAIN FOR SUN. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS IN THE
WEST.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS FIGHTING SAHARAN AIR AS ARC CLOUDS ARE
SEEING EMANATING FROM THE CONVECTION. GFS SHOWS THIS WAVE
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS WEST.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THU WITH WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300146 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
946 PM AST TUE SEP 29 2009

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTERWARD...LOW TO MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO CROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO INTERACT WITH A HUGE AND
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR NOW UNTIL FRIDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE FEW MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42 WEST THE EVENING...EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTIES
AS IT TRAVERSES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND FIND ITSELF WITH A LOT OF
SHEAR. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TONIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERWARD...THE HIGH WEAKENS...RESULTING IN AN EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.