Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[dizzyfish]

Just checked the Tampa NWS afternoon disco....
BEYOND THURSDAY A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER
THE FORECAST COULD BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY
GETS BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN
WE WOULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MUCH HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION LASTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO FAY...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (POPS ~50%) IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[salescall]

Don't know if this has been posted...new models out...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
more change....

[KWT]

Yep models are shunting this back westward again as the high builds in, very interesting to observe indeed but it could well stay inland.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS run showing SFL landfall in 12 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _006.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _012.shtml

[Brent]

This map makes me laugh...



So to clear things up, Fay on Saturday could be in the Gulf, off New Jersey, or in Canada.

[Canelaw99]

This map makes me laugh...



So to clear things up, Fay on Saturday could be in the Gulf, off New Jersey, or in Canada.

I think, since that's what the NHC has to work with, they need to all go out for margaritas! The model maps would look the same after a few anyway LOL

[capepoint]

This map makes me laugh...



So to clear things up, Fay on Saturday could be in the Gulf, off New Jersey, or in Canada.

I think, since that's what the NHC has to work with, they need to all go out for margaritas! The model maps would look the same after a few anyway LOL

I am ready to go out on a limb and state with 100 percent faith that although Capetown South Africa is in the model spread, Fay Most assuredly WILL NOT affect that area.

[Raebie]

*I* could create a map like that!

[Raebie]

Based on the latest NHC track, please tell me NC is going to get any rain out of this. Please.

[Pearl River]

Rabie said:

*I* could create a map like that!

I think my 2yo nephew could easily make a map like that..

[Wx_Warrior]

18z GFS has Fay heading towards Louisiana then stops and back to Alabama...Whack...I'm staying with EURO on this.

[attallaman]

I'm on the MS Gulf Coast and one of the stations in Mobile mentioned the possibility of Fay curving back to the west, entering the GOM making landfall possibly around the AL/FL state line, one station in NOLA also mentioned this so did my local station here, WLOX-TV13. Is there a chance that could happen? Curve back to the west and enter the GOM and go west? Feedback appreciated.

[Brent]

I'm on the MS Gulf Coast and one of the stations in Mobile mentioned the possibility of Fay curving back to the west, entering the GOM making landfall possibly around the AL/FL state line, one station in NOLA also mentioned this so did my local station here, WLOX-TV13. Is there a chance that could happen? Curve back to the west and enter the GOM and go west? Feedback appreciated.

It's possible, the new GFS has what appears to be a significant hurricane in the Northern Gulf below SE LA/MS/AL by a week from now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

The other models are however all over the place, it could go almost anywhere.

[Wx_Warrior]

Eventually a trough picks it up....when is the $2 question.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's possible, the new GFS has what appears to be a significant hurricane in the Northern Gulf below SE LA/MS/AL by a week from now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

The other models are however all over the place, it could go almost anywhere.

That's 94L...

[AL Chili Pepper]

18z GFS has Fay heading towards Louisiana then stops and back to Alabama...Whack...I'm staying with EURO on this.

The latest Euro is pretty similar to the GFS. Has it exiting FL, strengthening somewhat, moving back west over GA/Jacksonville area, and back into the extreme northern Gulf.

[Brent]

It's possible, the new GFS has what appears to be a significant hurricane in the Northern Gulf below SE LA/MS/AL by a week from now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

The other models are however all over the place, it could go almost anywhere.

That's 94L...

No it's not. I don't even see 94L there, but the same system shown at 180 is over NE FL at 96. 94L won't even be close to the U.S. that fast.

[KWT]

That's 94L...

Nope your wrong thats actually Fay believe it or not, take a look at these images and it'll show you its Fay all right:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[RL3AO]

It's possible, the new GFS has what appears to be a significant hurricane in the Northern Gulf below SE LA/MS/AL by a week from now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

The other models are however all over the place, it could go almost anywhere.

That's 94L...

Nope. Thats Fay.

[deltadog03]

Look, whats coming down at hour 120 though...A front...I am skeptical any WSW movement would happen...Yes a W movement, but not WSW...But, hey....She hasn't done very well with models...