ATL: ISAAC - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2501 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:03 pm

Ugh...West on the EURO, a smidge East on the GFS...The battle rages on and we have no consensus at the moment. We need that G-IV data in the models badly. Haven't seen Chris Walken on here in a while but...

Gotta have more RECON BABY!!!

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2502 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:03 pm

blp wrote:84hr riding up the west coast. Now we need the Noaa data. We have the two big models going in different directions.


can we split the difference and call it a day, sheesh...two heavyweights that refuse to be knocked down
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#2503 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:03 pm

And there's the bend to the west
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#2504 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:04 pm

May end up at the same position as last run...just took a different route in getting there... i.e. riding up the western peninsula before taking the wnw route. My head hurts.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2505 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:05 pm

gfs 108hr 18z

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#2506 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:05 pm

Well Issac moving into the gulf by 96hrs, quite a noticeable shift to the west of this systems track.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2507 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:05 pm

So the GFS is initially more north and east in the mid term but then ultimately more west in the long term?
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#2508 Postby ColdFusion » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:06 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:May end up at the same position as last run...just took a different route in getting there... i.e. riding up the western peninsula before taking the wnw route. My head hurts.


Not so sure about the western peninsula at all on this run, need a few more frames to confirm...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2509 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:06 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:So the GFS is initially more north and east in the mid term but then ultimately more west in the long term?

yerp.. in motion darn thing almost moves due west for a while
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#2510 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:07 pm

Until we determine which center is indeed the established center..it's all a crapshoot right now
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2511 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:08 pm

These runs are getting crazier by the minute...I must say though that this GFS solution seems plausible if the ridge indeed builds back in. If it indeed pans out this way it will be one of the more interesting tracks in history.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2512 Postby galvestontx » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:09 pm

are we sure east texas is out of the question?????
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2513 Postby Stormlover2012 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:09 pm

high pressure is supposed to build southeast and steering currents are going to be weak weak, seems to be there will be a shift west
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2514 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:09 pm

gfs 120hr 18z

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#2515 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:10 pm

galvestontx wrote:are we sure east texas is out of the question?????


I don't think anyone has said that TX is out of the question. Still way too far out and too much model disagreement to say any place along the Gulf is out.
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#2516 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:10 pm

I am listening to freebird while I upload these new frames.. kind of adds to the craziness LOL..
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#2517 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:11 pm

large center there stretching from the ala/miss border over to the fla panhandle maybe that means the intensity won't be too strong. Just wishful thinking I know the models don't measure intensity well.
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#2518 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:12 pm

Does the GFS have it weakening before landfall? This looked East at first but looks to be a West shift. Probable landfall along MS/AL coast.
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#2519 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:12 pm

Well it goes from being further east than the 12z GFS, to being a fair way west of that run.

Pretty unusual track, sorta like 1900 Galveston type track but turning a little later and further east. I've gotta say I've not seen many examples of it though.
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#2520 Postby meriland23 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:13 pm

gfs 132hr

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