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sittingduck wrote:I found this part of the 11 am discussion interesting but confusing - especially the last line. I understand what they are saying about weakening, but are they saying that they don't believe that she will be as strong as the official intensity forecast?
here is the part By 48 h and
beyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye
and relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some
upwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening
trend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase
to near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant
weakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of
Florence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is
expected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5
kt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field.
The new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity
guidance based on this e aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow
pattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.
I think a cat 3 is most likely at landfall. In spite of the weakening forecast, I don’t think it will landfall as a cat 2, but that’s still possible
