2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

2021 is well ahead of 2010. During 2010, three storms and one hurricane formed before August 15. During 2021, seven storms and one hurricane have formed before August 15. With 2010 being a very strong analog, this is quite concerning. This does not say much, for the early season is a terrible bellwether period; but it might be worth noting.

[captainbarbossa19]

Still lots of SAL, but let's not forget 2017.

[Shell Mound]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

[captainbarbossa19]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

One big change that is about to happen is that the EPAC is about to shut down. I am doubtful that the Atlantic will remain unfavorable after this happens for long.

[Shell Mound]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

One big change that is about to happen is that the EPAC is about to shut down. I am doubtful that the Atlantic will remain unfavorable after this happens for long.

The EPS in late July suggested that the TUTT would have become far weaker by this date than it actually is. The GEFS shows the TUTT persisting through 30 August.

[Category5Kaiju]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

One big change that is about to happen is that the EPAC is about to shut down. I am doubtful that the Atlantic will remain unfavorable after this happens for long.

The major models have really backed off on continous EPAC development after Linda, so I'd have to imagine that the Atlantic would soon kick into gear (and what we are seeing now is just the beginning). It would defy all known conventional logic and climo for both basins to remain quiet going into the peak season.

[tolakram]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

One big change that is about to happen is that the EPAC is about to shut down. I am doubtful that the Atlantic will remain unfavorable after this happens for long.

The EPS in late July suggested that the TUTT would have become far weaker by this date than it actually is. The GEFS shows the TUTT persisting through 30 August.

So do you trust or not trust the models? The TUTT will be there until it isn't, and the western Atlantic will be favorable before the eastern part of the basin this year. It's still up in the air as to IF the eastern Atlantic ever becomes favorable this year. All we know, at this point, is that there will be plenty of ammunition (waves) moving across the MDR waiting for decent conditions to develop.

[AlphaToOmega]

So far models seem to be underestimating the tenacity of the TUTT and are now showing strong VWS through the end of August.

One big change that is about to happen is that the EPAC is about to shut down. I am doubtful that the Atlantic will remain unfavorable after this happens for long.

The EPS in late July suggested that the TUTT would have become far weaker by this date than it actually is. The GEFS shows the TUTT persisting through 30 August.

A strong TUTT was present in the Atlantic during 2020. Guess how that turned out

[aspen]

I’m starting to wonder if we’ll have to wait until September for the first sub-990 mbar storm of the season, if the African monsoon remains too strong for development east of 50W and the ridging is positioned in just the right way to put everything on a track into the islands.

Imagine if that little low pressure system near Bermuda with barely any model support ends up as a stronger system than either Fred or Grace lol

[MarioProtVI]

I’m starting to wonder if we’ll have to wait until September for the first sub-990 mbar storm of the season, if the African monsoon remains too strong for development east of 50W and the ridging is positioned in just the right way to put everything on a track into the islands.

Imagine if that little low pressure system near Bermuda with barely any model support ends up as a stronger system than either Fred or Grace lol

I was thinking something like this as well. Doesn’t really feel like we’ve left the lull - in fact I’d argue it’s still going on. Yeah yeah flip after august 20 but I don’t see any signs that will be the case so far.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m starting to wonder if we’ll have to wait until September for the first sub-990 mbar storm of the season, if the African monsoon remains too strong for development east of 50W and the ridging is positioned in just the right way to put everything on a track into the islands.

Imagine if that little low pressure system near Bermuda with barely any model support ends up as a stronger system than either Fred or Grace lol

I was thinking something like this as well. Doesn’t really feel like we’ve left the lull - in fact I’d argue it’s still going on. Yeah yeah flip after august 20 but I don’t see any signs that will be the case so far.

Grace missing Islands would be the sign for people. If it doesn't, then skepticism will stay until a storm eventually misses the GA's.

[chaser1]

This much we do know. August is known for big strong mid level ridging. September 500 mb heights will wane little by little as the month progresses and as troughs within the westerlies begin to erode the Subtropical ridges. By October those large blocking ridges begin to break down further and become more cellular. Either way, it's just a matter of time when we'll see a sub 990 mb hurricane. Could be in the E. Atlantic MDR in 2-3 weeks. My guess is that it'll be south of 25N and west of 70W though.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trying to get the EPAC going again in the long-range, should it get active again, could keep a lid on the Atlantic.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS is trying to get the EPAC going again in the long-range, should it get active again, could keep a lid on the Atlantic.

https://i.postimg.cc/SN5YCyHs/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh168-384.gif

The GFS has been overestimating the EPac this year.

[Teban54]

Watching Fred and Grace largely struggling (for now) around the GA really shows how anomalous Elsa was, and how conducive the base state was that allowed a hurricane moving at almost 30mph to exist in early July.

I still think the basin will eventually return to those favorable conditions soon. Some people keep saying the flip is being delayed, but that might end up being worse because that will collide perfectly with the climatological peak season.

[WiscoWx02]

Watching Fred and Grace largely struggling (for now) around the GA really shows how anomalous Elsa was, and how conducive the base state was that allowed a hurricane moving at almost 30mph to exist in early July.

I still think the basin will eventually return to those favorable conditions soon. Some people keep saying the flip is being delayed, but that might end up being worse because that will collide perfectly with the climatological peak season.

That's something that I have been scratching my head with too. It's truly crazy to think that conditions were more favorable in the Atlantic in early July than they are now in a way. Now the Atlantic is just full of shear from TUTT's, an overly aggressive AEJ imparting easterly shear across the MDR, dry air and struggling storms. Nothing really new as it's not past August 20th yet, and I remember 2018 very well, so it is still too early to even think about writing off this season. Odds favor a ramp up this week or next week more than anything probably because of both climatology and the MJO being in a favorable state. However, on the off chance we are still in the same position 2-3 weeks from now, then I'm gonna start questioning if an active season is truly going to take place for obvious reasons.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1426465678790365186




Very interesting tweet from Brian McNoldy a few days ago. Yes, Fred and Grace are struggling, but we nevertheless reached our 7th named storm even before hitting the August 15 mark and have a very real contender for the 8th named storm from 96L very soon (with this pace of NS formation only exceeded by 4 seasons, all of which were extremely active and impactful). Something tells me that after August 20, we won't be looking at this season the same way we are now, and the idea of slop storms, "2013 repeat," and all of these things are going to become a relic of the past.

[psyclone]

It's ok to start getting antsy now. We're entitled to some meat and potatoes.

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1426465678790365186

Very interesting tweet from Brian McNoldy a few days ago. Yes, Fred and Grace are struggling, but we nevertheless reached our 7th named storm even before hitting the August 15 mark and have a very real contender for the 8th named storm from 96L very soon (with this pace of NS formation only exceeded by 4 seasons, all of which were extremely active and impactful). Something tells me that after August 20, we won't be looking at this season the same way we are now, and the idea of slop storms, "2013 repeat," and all of these things are going to become a relic of the past.

Fitting with Climo, long range GEFS 500 vorticity and height forecasts suggest that we'll see a marked decrease in the speed of 500mb flow along with the basin-wide low latitude ridging nudging a bit more north. With that said, keep in mind two things. One, Irma didn't form until Aug 30. Two, an Irma type track would seem to fit quite well with the present overall track pattern and given the stout east - west steering pattern. I'm pretty confident that Aug 25-Sept 10 is going to prove to be a busy and concerning period for those anywhere from the N. Gulf coastline all the way toward the Mid-Atlantic.

[Deshaunrob17]

The GFS is trying to get the EPAC going again in the long-range, should it get active again, could keep a lid on the Atlantic.

https://i.postimg.cc/SN5YCyHs/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh168-384.gif

The GFS has been overestimating the EPac this year.

Even though the GfS has been overestimating the intensity of EPAC systems, we have to admit that the EPAC been much busier than many anticipated. Many doubted the GfS on the quantity of EPAC systems, but the GfS was not that far off because it’s been non stop activity in the EPAC..