Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Idk I’m beginning to see the precip moving faster to the east and beating the cold… so my question is what kind of surprise do we need for the southern Texas area to get more sleet? Colder air? How do we get rid of the warm nose?

The upper level cold needs to be deeper, its aim right now is the midwest and Ohio valley, we are on the southwestern peripheral. More cold at the surface just means more ice accretion, verbatim, so a further westward/southward expansion at the upper levels is preferred. Scenario 2 is the ULL coming out and cooling the column west to east and surface low develop well into the gulf. This is for the regions you mentioned.

Right, ive been looking at soundings and temps are near 10C above the surface, below freezing at the surface. HUGE above freezing warm temps at altitude.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cpv17 I dont know about that, models are extremely close to showing significant icing in the houston metro, id probably prepare for freezing rain on saturday, closer to the coast it might be just all cold rain

I’m just saying as of right now I’m not seeing much of an event for the Houston area. Could easily change.

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

CMC sucks, gfs isn’t good, euro all day. Se tx escapes

My guess is you’ll be wrong. I’ve seen this set up a lot since the late 80s. This isn’t a snow or really much sleet event for SETX, but I’m expecting a gnarly accretion of freezing rain for Hou metro. Hallettsville to Hempstead to Lufkin could be where the sleet starts to mix in.

Also you need to put a disclaimer in your signature since you speak in absolutes.

A lot of our customers read this forum and don’t need clown posts clogging up the board.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I dont know about that, models are extremely close to showing significant icing in the houston metro, id probably prepare for freezing rain on saturday, closer to the coast it might be just all cold rain

I’m just saying as of right now I’m not seeing much of an event for the Houston area. Could easily change.

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m just saying as of right now I’m not seeing much of an event for the Houston area. Could easily change.

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

I believe everywhere in SETX will see freezing rain minus Galveston. Some more than others with the onset of freezing temps.

[Cpv17]

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

I believe everywhere in SETX will see freezing rain minus Galveston. Some more than others with the onset of freezing temps.

What I want to see is a surprise disturbance coming outta Mexico after the cold air is set in.

[Brazoria979cnty]

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

I believe everywhere in SETX will see freezing rain minus Galveston. Some more than others with the onset of freezing temps.

do believe this as well..once that temp drops below freezing if there is still rain it will freeze

[Ntxw]

We are still setting up for a potential February SSW. Don't be surprised if winter continues deep into February.





If you want to understand a little more on the precursors (wave 1 Aleutian low pattern) link below.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/polar-vortex/cooking-stratospheric-polar-vortex-disruption

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

I believe everywhere in SETX will see freezing rain minus Galveston. Some more than others with the onset of freezing temps.

What I want to see is a surprise disturbance coming outta Mexico after the cold air is set in.

Wouldn’t be uncommon. Mexico isn’t modeled well

[Ralph's Weather]

I agree with the thought that precip types and the heaviest band will still shift south. 1050ish surface high pressing precip and the 850mb 0C line south. Freezing rain likely eventually reaches the coast. Worst icing likely along and a bit north of I-10. Once you near I-20 it could be more snow than currently depicted. Surface temps in the low to mid 20s along I-20 will make for nice snow if we can get 850mb 0C line far enough south. Hill Country to Deep East TX could see nasty icing.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yeah, I could see those areas getting something. South of I-10 and east of Highway 71 just looks like a cold rain.

I believe everywhere in SETX will see freezing rain minus Galveston. Some more than others with the onset of freezing temps.

What I want to see is a surprise disturbance coming outta Mexico after the cold air is set in.

I would watch for when the upper low ejects over Texas early week. If you assume the surface cold will be slow to erode then it could well drop a few inches of snow across the state. Also for more northern portions of the state we always have to watch the northern stream for little NW flow clippers that can overperform.

[wxman57]

I'm waiting for the 12Z Euro to come in. GFS has Houston temps hovering near 30-32 Sat/Sun with about 0.4" of ice. GFS sounding indicates a significant warm layer aloft between 3000-12,000ft at the start of the precip. As the precip ends here Sunday, that warm (above-freezing) layer erodes. Couldn't rule out a few snowflakes as precip ends, but the primary impact would be freezing rain mixed with sleet.

For you folks up north around D-FW, 12Z GFS has 2-4 inches of snow now for the Metroplex Still too far out for any confidence. GFS tends to overdo these type of events. Let's see what the 12Z EC says...

[Quixotic]

Seeing some goofy stuff. Sleet to snow back to sleet even as the cold deepens.

2013 was bad. 2003 was much much worse area wide. 3-5” of sleet. Was stuck in the house for a week as my main thoroughfare at that time was 635. Tried to go to the gym and sat in traffic for five hours to get to the next exit. Been better off if I tried to ice skate to the gym.

[txtwister78]

The GEFS continues to trend colder further south and that's not unusual as these models play "catch up" with arctic air progression but with that trend you also increase the duration and timing of frozen precip further south as well.

So GFS op does have support from its ensemble

[TeamPlayersBlue]

CMC sucks, gfs isn’t good, euro all day. Se tx escapes

My guess is you’ll be wrong. I’ve seen this set up a lot since the late 80s. This isn’t a snow or really much sleet event for SETX, but I’m expecting a gnarly accretion of freezing rain for Hou metro. Hallettsville to Hempstead to Lufkin could be where the sleet starts to mix in.

Also you need to put a disclaimer in your signature since you speak in absolutes.

A lot of our customers read this forum and don’t need clown posts clogging up the board.

I agree with you. Also, fully trusting the Euro in a winter event is what lead to the debacle in '21. Real weather dorks know you cant trust Euro temps at the surface in shallow arctic air events.

[orangeblood]

The GEFS continues to trend colder further south and that's not unusual as these models play "catch up" with arctic air progression but with that trend you also increase the duration and timing of frozen precip further south as well.

So GFS op does have support from its ensemble

Its an outlier at the upper levels though, not going to get an accurate precip depiction being this disconnected right now. Would expect more of the typical northwest to southeast transition from rain/frz rn/sleet/snow (like its ENS Mean is showing) than the north to south tranistion that the GFS Op is showing right now. GFS OP looks off right now IMO

GFS OP


GEFS

[orangeblood]

CMC sucks, gfs isn’t good, euro all day. Se tx escapes

My guess is you’ll be wrong. I’ve seen this set up a lot since the late 80s. This isn’t a snow or really much sleet event for SETX, but I’m expecting a gnarly accretion of freezing rain for Hou metro. Hallettsville to Hempstead to Lufkin could be where the sleet starts to mix in.

Also you need to put a disclaimer in your signature since you speak in absolutes.

A lot of our customers read this forum and don’t need clown posts clogging up the board.

I agree with you. Also, fully trusting the Euro in a winter event is what lead to the debacle in '21. Real weather dorks know you cant trust Euro temps at the surface in shallow arctic air events.

Yep, CMC and ICON handled surface temps better during our extreme events while Euro is king at the upper levels

[snownado]

If it has to happen, it better be a big snowstorm ala Feb. 2010.

An ice storm or a long duration 2-4" snow event would really just PMO (a native Midwestener)...

[wxman22]

The 12z Euro AI is pretty aggressive with the storm.

[Ntxw]

If it has to happen, it better be a big snowstorm ala Feb. 2010.

An ice storm or a long duration 2-4" snow event would really just PMO (a native Midwestener)...

These types of events has the potential at least. QPF on virtually all of the ens means being this high is unusual for an arctic blast. We had high qpf in the first event last Jan but cold was much more limited. Least we got the players...all of the big snow high qpf storms generally look similar, just a matter of where...