Why Franklin may LOOP after all

[mike18xx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.

[Sanibel]

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...

[mike18xx]

AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.

[mvtrucking]

AFAICT, there isn't any layer with a northward bias near Franklin right now.

Mike18xx,
A bit off topic but I wanted to ask your opinion on what 92L will do and will the front make it as far south as the GOM later this week?If so, do you see any development taking place? Thanks.

[mike18xx]

92L is junk, and the front won't make it.

[Ivanhater]

92L is junk, and the front won't make it.

while were off topic, lol, what do you think the wave behind 92 will do and head?

[mike18xx]

WNW and become a TD.

[mike18xx]

A three-hour difference:

[mike18xx]

I can't tell for certain, but I believe the LLC is moving, or has already moved, south closer to the huge blow-up in waning daylight frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

[Sanibel]

Dead stall.

The Gulf Stream is transporting fresh warm water under it as it sits...

[mike18xx]

The Gulf Stream hugs the coast, and doesn't go under Franklin's current position. But an LLC with lights winds doesn't stir the ocean that much (the TS-force winds are away in the bands).

[mike18xx]

Reasoning: The axis of the ridge (anchored at its SW end near Atlanta, GA) is stretching/building NE out over the North Carolina & Virginia (and north of Franklin) in response to increased subsidence under great quantities of blow-off generated by frontal convection. Franklin, south of the ridge axis, will drift west until encountering a weakness and recurving. Given favorable anti-cyclonic conditions developing aloft, Franklin should begin strengthening.

Go here: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
...and set quality to high and zoom-factor to LOW, select 30-frame animation, then click Cape Hatteras.

No way in Spotted Heck is Franklin moving NE anytime soon.

[DAVE440]

Nice blow up of convection! Could just be the infra red but looks like a slight S or SE movement. Probably stationary in reality tho.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

THE THING JUST WON'T GIVE UP!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Franklin has not been around very lone. He is childs play when it comes to how long his kind can last. Kyle lasted 3 weeks. Ivan Over 70 Advisories,Lisa 50+,Jeanne 50+. In alot more where that came from. Kyle had over 9- Adivsories writen on him.

So Franklin would have to be around another week or two. Before he even touches the surface. Tonight he doe's look good. In I expect him to regain some of what he losted over the next 24 hours.

[mike18xx]

If the track I posted on the previous page materializes, Franklin could even achieve hurricane status.

The convection this evening is even managing to carve out a small anti-cyclone aloft.

[Sanibel]

The flow to the north is now visibly east to west.


Franklin stationary...

[mike18xx]

All they really know is that it was stationary up until Tuesday afternoon; since then, the LLC has been obscured.

[Astro_man92]

Here is frenklins track :

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200506.asp

computer modles
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ture=track

cumulative wind:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ture=track

sattilinte image:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 6_sat.html

discusion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200506.disc.html

and a historical map:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

[drdoom]

Just like my little brother Franklin. He seems disappointed that a storm finally named after him didn't get cat 5 and hit central florida. He was slammed hard by charley last year, tree through his roof and all and loves hurricanes. I'm 50 50 now after not having power in August for a week. Cold showers, no gas, eating out, too hot to sleep. Charley came so close to me it made my ears hurt. They are exciting events. Just hope for the best.

[Sanibel]

He could jerk north when that new convection catches the steering currents at that level...

Poleward right on cue...