Texas Winter 2010-2011

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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2521 Postby downsouthman1 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:MJO is officially in phase 7. Mighty interesting.

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/7153/mjo.gif


I'm a total newb when reading this. I have no clue what I'm looking at.
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#2522 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:20 pm

I wont be suprised to see a little lite freezing rain/drizzle across the D/FW area, with a few snow flurries up to the north, say Denten northward. It's the NE part of TX that may have a few issues for the drive home tomorrow evening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2523 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:21 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:I'm a total newb when reading this. I have no clue what I'm looking at.


Lament terms, phase 7/8 is the ideal location for convection in the tropics boosting energy to swing through the southern plains (hence all of this activity picking up next week) and generating something of an SJT in nature. Usually seen in El Nino years.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2524 Postby Kelarie » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:32 pm

Well I am waiting for Shreveport NWS to update their forecast...and waiting. Oh well, guess I will go back to waiting and seeing what they have to say.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2525 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:47 pm

The 18Z took a trend in the right direction regarding next week...

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2526 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:02 pm

Fort Worth could get to freezing before precip ends tomorrow afternoon. Look at surface obs.

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2527 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:02 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Well here we go! Here is my updated forecast.. I'm still waiting for people to jump on my wagon. ntxboy is, anyone else? Its going to be gone if you don't hurry.

My forecast is generally for the Grayson County and surrounding areas.

Tonight will be cool continued increasing clouds with a low around 39 degrees staying pretty steady overnight.

Tomorrow, Temperature falling to 32 degrees by 2 p.m. with rain changing over to frz rain, or sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. 100% frz rain/sleet then changing to snow before ending. Temperature will fall to near 25 degrees by 5 a.m. for a very cold start Friday morning with a few slick spots on the roads. I've decreased my accumulation thoughts because I feel like the precipitation will move across our area faster than I was originally thinking. 1/2 inch to 2 inches accumulation on grassy surfaces, with a few isolated areas getting greater than 2 inches.

Friday, some early snow flurries in the morning with a high near 39 degrees clearing skys.

Saturday, fair and cool with a high near 44 degrees.

Sunday, high near 41 degrees with a good chance for rain.

As far as the events Sunday night/evening into next week, I have alot of mixed thoughts on that and I'm going to give it a little more time before I make a decision on which direction I want to go with it.

Take care, and enjoy your night!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2528 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:04 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Well here we go! Here is my updated forecast.. I'm still waiting for people to jump on my wagon. ntxboy is, anyone else? Its going to be gone if you don't hurry.

My forecast is generally for the Grayson County and surrounding areas.

Tonight will be cool continued increasing clouds with a low around 39 degrees staying pretty steady overnight.

Tomorrow, Temperature falling to 32 degrees by 2 p.m. with rain changing over to frz rain, or sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. 100% frz rain/sleet then changing to snow before ending. Temperature will fall to near 25 degrees by 5 a.m. for a very cold start Friday morning with a few slick spots on the roads. I've decreased my accumulation thoughts because I feel like the precipitation will move across our area faster than I was originally thinking. 1/2 inch to 2 inches accumulation on grassy surfaces, with a few isolated areas getting greater than 2 inches.

Friday, some early snow flurries in the morning with a high near 39 degrees clearing skys.

Saturday, fair and cool with a high near 44 degrees.

Sunday, high near 41 degrees with a good chance for rain.

As far as the events Sunday night/evening into next week, I have alot of mixed thoughts on that and I'm going to give it a little more time before I make a decision on which direction I want to go with it.

Take care, and enjoy your night!

Better extend that to DFW. I think DFW/FTW will be near 31-32F by noon.
Last edited by txagwxman on Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2529 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:05 pm

The 00Z NAM suggests some 'brighter returns' near the Dallas/Ft Worth area. We shall see...

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2530 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:10 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Well here we go! Here is my updated forecast.. I'm still waiting for people to jump on my wagon. ntxboy is, anyone else? Its going to be gone if you don't hurry.

My forecast is generally for the Grayson County and surrounding areas.

Tonight will be cool continued increasing clouds with a low around 39 degrees staying pretty steady overnight.

Tomorrow, Temperature falling to 32 degrees by 2 p.m. with rain changing over to frz rain, or sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. 100% frz rain/sleet then changing to snow before ending. Temperature will fall to near 25 degrees by 5 a.m. for a very cold start Friday morning with a few slick spots on the roads. I've decreased my accumulation thoughts because I feel like the precipitation will move across our area faster than I was originally thinking. 1/2 inch to 2 inches accumulation on grassy surfaces, with a few isolated areas getting greater than 2 inches.

Friday, some early snow flurries in the morning with a high near 39 degrees clearing skys.

Saturday, fair and cool with a high near 44 degrees.

Sunday, high near 41 degrees with a good chance for rain.

As far as the events Sunday night/evening into next week, I have alot of mixed thoughts on that and I'm going to give it a little more time before I make a decision on which direction I want to go with it.

Take care, and enjoy your night!

I think Sherman will be 30F by noon---we will see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2531 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:15 pm

txagwxman wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Well here we go! Here is my updated forecast.. I'm still waiting for people to jump on my wagon. ntxboy is, anyone else? Its going to be gone if you don't hurry.

My forecast is generally for the Grayson County and surrounding areas.

Tonight will be cool continued increasing clouds with a low around 39 degrees staying pretty steady overnight.

Tomorrow, Temperature falling to 32 degrees by 2 p.m. with rain changing over to frz rain, or sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. 100% frz rain/sleet then changing to snow before ending. Temperature will fall to near 25 degrees by 5 a.m. for a very cold start Friday morning with a few slick spots on the roads. I've decreased my accumulation thoughts because I feel like the precipitation will move across our area faster than I was originally thinking. 1/2 inch to 2 inches accumulation on grassy surfaces, with a few isolated areas getting greater than 2 inches.

Friday, some early snow flurries in the morning with a high near 39 degrees clearing skys.

Saturday, fair and cool with a high near 44 degrees.

Sunday, high near 41 degrees with a good chance for rain.

As far as the events Sunday night/evening into next week, I have alot of mixed thoughts on that and I'm going to give it a little more time before I make a decision on which direction I want to go with it.

Take care, and enjoy your night!

I think Sherman will be 30F by noon---we will see.


I sure hoppe so.... wx man how do you think my forecast is? would you might giving your opinion compared to mine? If so thank you...
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2532 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:15 pm

It's currently 37 here ENE of Denison, Grayson County!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2533 Postby gboudx » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:19 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Tomorrow, Temperature falling to 32 degrees by 2 p.m. with rain changing over to frz rain, or sleet between 12 p.m. and 3 p.m. 100% frz rain/sleet then changing to snow before ending. Temperature will fall to near 25 degrees by 5 a.m. for a very cold start Friday morning with a few slick spots on the roads. I've decreased my accumulation thoughts because I feel like the precipitation will move across our area faster than I was originally thinking. 1/2 inch to 2 inches accumulation on grassy surfaces, with a few isolated areas getting greater than 2 inches.


For comparison, here's what the DFW NWS has for Sherman in their forecast.

Thursday: A chance of rain before noon, then occasional freezing drizzle between noon and 3pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 27 by 2pm. Windy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 16.

For me in Rockwall, freezing drizzle has been added to the forecast. Just awesome. I can't wait to drive home from work tomorrow. Good thing I don't drive on very many bridges or elevated surfaces.
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#2534 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:20 pm

My forecast for DFW:

Cold front hits 8AM, by noon freezing drizzle over the Metro area, especially north and west...then tapering off by 1PM. By noon DFW should be 30-31F. FTW could be 32F by 11AM or 10AM.

Not an official forecast, but take caution tomorrow on overpasses.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2535 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:21 pm

I'm still skeptical about snow. Sleet and ZR have been in many forecasts, and has been mentioned many times. Dewpoints right now aren't very low here or in OKC, suspect for me. But hey! It is an arctic air mass coming so who knows!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2536 Postby Brandon8181 » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:24 pm

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:It's currently 37 here ENE of Denison, Grayson County!


I'm at 41 degrees outside my house in Sherman
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2537 Postby txagwxman » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'm still skeptical about snow. Sleet and ZR have been in many forecasts, and has been mentioned many times. Dewpoints right now aren't very low here or in OKC, suspect for me. But hey! It is an arctic air mass coming so who knows!

I don't see snow in DFW, but at last second may change in Sherman temperature profile is below freezing aloft.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2538 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:27 pm

txagwxman wrote:I don't see snow in DFW, but at last second may change in Sherman temperature profile is below freezing aloft.


It wouldn't amount to anything if it did from what I can see, especially with the NE to SW orientation of the precip it may end too soon that path. I think areas adjacent to Texarkana might. They have heavier qpf which definitely will help that way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2539 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:
txagwxman wrote:I don't see snow in DFW, but at last second may change in Sherman temperature profile is below freezing aloft.


It wouldn't amount to anything if it did from what I can see, especially with the NE to SW orientation of the precip it may end too soon that path. I think areas adjacent to Texarkana might. They have heavier qpf which definitely will help that way.



Dynamic pattern. This has been a borderline call all along. Let's see what develops.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2540 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:32 pm

I sure hope it does srain, maybe the arctic air has some surprises. I've become Wxman with this system :lol: oh no! Never had a good feeling about it :cry: .

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