ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[KWT]

FWIW looks like looking at recon the center has moved rather close to 270 degrees, probably has wobbled a little south and north of that direction over the past few hours to be fair.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220019
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 14 20110822
000900 1740N 06456W 8433 01486 9999 +177 +168 224028 029 033 001 00
000930 1739N 06456W 8432 01493 0005 +174 //// 231026 027 032 000 01
001000 1737N 06456W 8434 01490 0009 +175 //// 231026 026 031 000 01
001030 1736N 06456W 8430 01499 0013 +175 //// 232029 030 030 000 05
001100 1734N 06454W 8436 01494 0014 +168 //// 230030 030 034 003 05
001130 1733N 06453W 8429 01507 //// +156 //// 225036 040 041 007 01
001200 1732N 06452W 8430 01508 //// +149 //// 218041 042 043 007 01
001230 1731N 06451W 8420 01521 //// +145 //// 209044 048 045 012 01
001300 1730N 06449W 8442 01501 //// +141 //// 211044 044 047 011 01
001330 1729N 06448W 8423 01523 //// +144 //// 210043 044 046 012 01
001400 1728N 06447W 8438 01513 //// +137 //// 207041 041 045 012 01
001430 1727N 06446W 8433 01520 //// +133 //// 201042 043 043 011 01
001500 1726N 06445W 8433 01522 //// +136 //// 196043 044 040 007 01
001530 1726N 06445W 8433 01522 0066 +140 //// 195042 042 040 004 01
001600 1724N 06442W 8426 01537 0061 +155 //// 196041 042 039 007 01
001630 1723N 06441W 8436 01526 0071 +141 //// 191040 041 041 007 01
001700 1722N 06440W 8435 01527 0072 +143 //// 196039 040 041 009 01
001730 1721N 06439W 8436 01531 0078 +139 //// 199040 040 039 009 01
001800 1720N 06438W 8430 01540 //// +130 //// 200042 043 038 009 01
001830 1719N 06436W 8433 01538 0081 +143 //// 198040 041 039 006 01
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

Not sure if there was a VDM for the first center pass, probably because the plane was just getting started:

000
URNT12 KNHC 220021
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/00:05:00Z
B. 17 deg 51 min N
065 deg 01 min W
C. 850 mb 1383 m
D. 55 kt
E. 314 deg 46 nm
F. 040 deg 58 kt
G. 294 deg 37 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 16 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1520 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 23:52:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 273 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Recurve]

FWIW looks like looking at recon the center has moved rather close to 270 degrees, probably has wobbled a little south and north of that direction over the past few hours to be fair.

Edit: nevermind, 270 west, I get it now

[Evil Jeremy]

New VDM shows Irene has winds of 55kt/65mph, but this is unofficial until the NHC declares it of course.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, anyone from the Florida Panhandle to North Carolina is in serious crosshairs. But the intensity is anyone's guess, depends on how long over water it has.

How fast is it supposed to move inland? Major flood threat in the eastern states?

[JtSmarts]

Latest Bastardi Tweets

My track is just east of FLA with strongest hit in the Carolinas since Isabel in 2003. System looking more like Floyd to me

Expect track to be midway between Floyd ( 99) and Cleo ( 64) for FLa as worst of the hit is further north

Partial eyewall forming nw of St Croix

[BatzVI]

I don't know about this calm your talking about in St. Thomas because its been nonstop up here on the northside...very rainy and very gusty

I'm in Havensight. It was pretty calm here for 40-50 minutes or so. Raining and gusting now!

Check out the photo!

Couldn't view the photo but up by the greathouse its been nonstop...wish we had that calm.
..I'm over it

[fci]

So far the NHC isn't buying into the many models bringing Irene east of Florida, per their latest advisory just issued....

I just read the NHC advisory...where did it say that? might have missed it...

Yeah, they rarely do anything more than update position and strength in the intermediate.
They don't do discussions so I don't know what Convergence was referring to either.

[Dave]

I overwrote the picture above...sorry bout that.

[vacanechaser]

wow!! 994



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 00:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 0:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°51'N 65°01'W (17.85N 65.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (127 km) to the ESE (120°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,383m (4,537ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 58kts (From the NE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:52:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (273°) from the flight level center

[Dave]

DROPSONDE OB 4

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220022
XXAA 72008 99178 70650 04375 99994 27413 16507 00551 ///// /////
92646 24008 16508 85378 19005 19015 88999 77999
31313 09608 80006
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 1781N06497W 0006 MBL WND 16508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16508
994923 WL150 17008 084 REL 1781N06497W 000600 SPG 1784N06501W 000
611 =
XXBB 72008 99178 70650 04375 00994 27413 11850 19005 22843 18405
21212 00994 16507 11923 16508 22843 19515
31313 09608 80006
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 1781N06497W 0006 MBL WND 16508 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16508
994923 WL150 17008 084 REL 1781N06497W 000600 SPG 1784N06501W 000
611 =

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 4

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 00:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.8N 65.0W
Location: 82 miles (131 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (29.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F) 165° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb -51m (-167 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 646m (2,119 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph)
850mb 1,378m (4,521 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F) 190° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:06Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 17.81N 64.97W
Splash Time: 0:06Z

Release Location: 17.81N 64.97W View map)
Release Time: 0:06:00Z

Splash Location: 17.84N 65.01W (
Splash Time: 0:06:11Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 923mb to 994mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
994mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.1°C (79.0°F)
850mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F)
843mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 17.9°C (64.2°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (Surface) 165° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
923mb 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph)
843mb 195° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph)


---



[mf_dolphin]

994 mb. She's definitely deepening.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220029
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 15 20110822
001900 1718N 06435W 8427 01547 //// +141 //// 197037 038 041 012 01
001930 1717N 06434W 8434 01540 //// +136 //// 199037 038 040 014 01
002000 1716N 06433W 8435 01541 //// +141 //// 198035 040 038 012 01
002030 1715N 06432W 8435 01543 0087 +142 //// 194037 037 038 010 01
002100 1714N 06431W 8432 01547 0084 +154 +143 190038 038 037 008 00
002130 1713N 06429W 8432 01549 0087 +155 +141 192038 038 036 006 00
002200 1712N 06428W 8432 01552 0085 +160 +137 193037 037 036 006 00
002230 1712N 06427W 8432 01552 0084 +164 +139 192035 035 037 004 00
002300 1711N 06426W 8431 01553 0088 +157 +143 193034 034 035 003 00
002330 1710N 06425W 8433 01553 0092 +153 +151 195033 033 033 004 00
002400 1709N 06423W 8430 01556 0097 +148 //// 195029 031 034 004 01
002430 1708N 06422W 8433 01554 0098 +148 //// 191029 031 033 005 01
002500 1707N 06421W 8433 01557 0095 +153 //// 183031 031 033 005 01
002530 1706N 06420W 8430 01559 0093 +157 //// 185030 031 032 005 01
002600 1705N 06419W 8433 01557 0092 +160 +152 186030 031 032 002 00
002630 1704N 06418W 8431 01560 0096 +156 +151 188029 030 031 005 00
002700 1703N 06416W 8433 01559 0100 +151 +148 181030 031 032 005 00
002730 1702N 06415W 8433 01559 0094 +161 +141 181030 031 033 005 00
002800 1701N 06414W 8434 01559 0094 +165 +141 179029 030 033 005 00
002830 1700N 06413W 8431 01563 0095 +165 +142 179027 027 032 005 00
$$
;

[UpTheCreek]

Latest Bastardi Tweets

My track is just east of FLA with strongest hit in the Carolinas since Isabel in 2003. System looking more like Floyd to me

I wonder how JB arrives at his intensity forecast? I really hope he's wrong.

[Pigsnibble]

I still think the Asymetry of the system is telling us something. Although the system is wrapping up nicely, something is allowing massive convection to the north and northeast.

[painkillerr]

I don't know about this calm your talking about in St. Thomas because its been nonstop up here on the northside...very rainy and very gusty

I'm in Havensight. It was pretty calm here for 40-50 minutes or so. Raining and gusting now!

Check out the photo!

Couldn't view the photo but up by the greathouse its been nonstop...wish we had that calm.
..I'm over it

Oh the calm came and went.... It's pouring from the south now. Stronger winds now than earlier!

[storm4u]

stay safe down there

Oh the calm came and went.... It's pouring from the south now. Stronger winds now than earlier![/quote]